【摘要】：近年來，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)倍受學術(shù)界關(guān)注，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)成長問題更是學術(shù)界關(guān)注的熱點問題。經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)成長迅速，各方面建設(shè)開始向成熟邁進，但是在民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的同時，由于受到種種原因的干擾，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著風險。旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)性較強，是一個高度敏感的交叉性產(chǎn)業(yè)，民族地區(qū)由于受到自身特殊的經(jīng)濟、社會和地理條件的限制，使得旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的脆弱性在民族地區(qū)表現(xiàn)得更加明顯。近年來，民族地區(qū)突發(fā)事件頻繁發(fā)生，2008年3月份“拉薩3.14事件”，5月份“汶川地震”，2009年“甲型H1N1流感”，2010年4月玉樹“7.1級地震”，8月舟曲泥石流等突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生，嚴重打擊了我國民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，給民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)造成了巨大的損失。 本文主要是從三個方面來分析民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)所面臨的風險：民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)自身結(jié)構(gòu)問題引起的風險，，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部企業(yè)管理經(jīng)營引起的風險以及民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)外界環(huán)境的不確定性引起的風險。從這三個方面出發(fā)，建立民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險評估指標體系。運用BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)法，對呼倫貝爾、丹東、長白山、恩施、張家界、陽朔、海南、九寨溝、黃果樹、麗江、拉薩、敦煌、青海湖、銀川、烏魯木齊這15個民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險進行評估。最后對民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險防范提出建議。 本文具體內(nèi)容如下： 第一，文章緒論，選題的背景、意義，國內(nèi)外文獻綜述，理論基礎(chǔ)，技術(shù)路線，研究方法及可能的創(chuàng)新點。 第二，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀以及民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險現(xiàn)狀的分析。 第三，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險評估指標體系設(shè)置及模型構(gòu)建。 第四，基于人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險評估實證分析。 第五，民族地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)風險防范對策研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the tourism industry in ethnic areas has attracted much attention from academia, and the growth of tourism industry in ethnic areas has become a hot issue in academia. After decades of development, the tourism industry in ethnic areas has grown rapidly, and various aspects of construction have begun to advance towards maturity. However, with the rapid development of tourism industry in ethnic areas, due to various reasons, the tourism industry has been disturbed by various reasons. The development of tourism industry in minority areas is facing risks. Tourism industry is a highly sensitive cross-cutting industry, because of its own special economic, social and geographical constraints, the fragility of tourism industry is more obvious in ethnic areas. In recent years, there have been frequent incidents in ethnic minority areas, such as the "3.14 Lhasa incident" in March 2008, the "Wenchuan earthquake" in May, the "Influenza A H1N1" in 2009, and the "7.1 magnitude earthquake" in Yushu in April 2010. The occurrence of Zhouqu debris flow and other sudden events in August has seriously damaged the development of tourism industry in ethnic minority areas and caused huge losses to the tourism industry in ethnic areas. This paper mainly analyzes the risks faced by the tourism industry in ethnic regions from three aspects: the risks caused by the structural problems of the tourism industries in ethnic areas; The risks caused by the management and operation of the internal enterprises in the tourism industry and the uncertainty of the external environment of the tourism industry in the minority areas. From these three aspects, we set up the risk assessment index system of tourism industry in ethnic areas. The BP artificial neural network method was used to study the relationship between Hulunbeir, Dandong, Changbai Mountain, Enshi, Zhangjiajie, Yangshuo, Hainan, Jiuzhaigou, Huangguoshu, Lijiang, Lhasa, Dunhuang, Qinghai Lake, Yinchuan, Urumqi these 15 ethnic areas tourism industry risk assessment. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the risk prevention of tourism industry in minority areas. The specific contents of this paper are as follows: first, the introduction, background, significance, domestic and foreign literature review, theoretical basis, technical route, research methods and possible innovations. Second, the current situation of tourism industry in ethnic areas and the analysis of the current situation of tourism industry risk in ethnic areas. Thirdly, the risk assessment index system of tourism industry in minority areas is set up and the model is constructed. Fourth, the empirical analysis of tourism industry risk assessment in ethnic areas based on artificial neural network. Fifthly, study on the countermeasures of tourism industry risk prevention in minority areas.
【學位授予單位】：吉首大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F592.7;TP18

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