【摘要】：東江湖景區(qū)憑借其得天獨厚的自然旅游資源,吸引了大批游客前來觀光旅游,多年來已然成為資興市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重要支柱之一。經(jīng)歷了2008全球范圍金融危機的洗禮,在后危機時代,東江湖旅游面臨著全國旅游市場重新洗牌的壓力；但同時也獲得了利用彎道超車的前進動力和發(fā)展機遇。因此本文依據(jù)發(fā)展較為成熟的旅游需求理論,全方位入手對東江湖旅游需求的時間結構、空間結構、人口學結構等進行了分析,并在此基礎上運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論建立旅游需求預測模型,對東江湖未來五年的旅游人數(shù)進行了預測,本文的研究對于制定的東江湖旅游建設方針和拓展東江湖旅游市場份額都有著極其重要意義。 本文首先比較全面的收集了近幾十年來國內外有關旅游需求和旅游需求預測的期刊、書籍、報紙等文獻資料,并對資料進行了邏輯上的整合、分析和闡述。從而找出了研究東江湖旅游需求的突破口,找準了灰色系統(tǒng)理論作為定量分析工具,對未來五年的東江湖旅游流人數(shù)進行了預測。再次從東江湖旅游的實際出發(fā),通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索、問卷調查、實地勘察等方法搜集到各項資料和可靠數(shù)據(jù),依據(jù)已有的旅游需求理論,從時間結構特征、空間結構特征、人口學結構特征和消費結構特征四個方面入手,對東江湖旅游的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行了全面的剖析,找出了東江湖旅游的內在規(guī)律性,和可持續(xù)發(fā)展性。隨后,筆者根據(jù)灰色系統(tǒng)理論建立了東江湖旅游流人數(shù)的預測模型,運用搜集到的2003至2012十年的數(shù)據(jù)來確定預測模型中的參數(shù),在模型通過了顯著性檢驗后,運用其對未來五年的旅游流進行了預測。最后,本文基于前文定性定量的綜合分析,再一次深究東江湖旅游呈現(xiàn)出現(xiàn)有規(guī)律的深層原因,目的在于能夠給出相應的對策建議,從而使得東江湖旅游業(yè)能夠在現(xiàn)有的基礎上進一步根據(jù)旅游需求的特點進行景區(qū)、服務等各方面的建設,使得景區(qū)的發(fā)展能夠更加繁榮且保證可持續(xù)性。 通過本文的分析研究,能夠從本質上把握東江湖旅游的現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展規(guī)律,從而有的放矢的制定出相匹配的發(fā)展策略,為東江湖旅游走向下一個新的高峰打下了基礎。
[Abstract]:With its unique natural tourism resources, Dongjiang Lake Scenic area has attracted a large number of tourists to sightseeing and has become one of the important pillars of the economic and social development of Zixing City for many years. After the baptism of the global financial crisis of 2008, in the post-crisis era, Dongjianghu tourism is facing the pressure of reshuffling the national tourism market, but it has also obtained the motive force and the development opportunity to make use of the detour overtaking. Therefore, based on the mature theory of tourism demand, this paper analyzes the time structure, spatial structure and demography structure of Dongjiang Lake tourism demand. On the basis of this, the forecast model of tourism demand is established by using grey system theory, and the number of tourism in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years is forecasted. The research in this paper is of great significance to the establishment of Dongjiang Lake tourism construction policy and the expansion of Dongjiang Lake tourism market share. In this paper, the author first collects the literature of the domestic and foreign periodicals, books, newspapers and so on about the tourism demand and the forecast of the tourism demand in recent decades, and carries on the logical integration, the analysis and the elaboration to the data. Thus, the paper finds out the breakthrough of the study on the tourism demand of Dongjiang Lake and the grey system theory as a quantitative analysis tool, and forecasts the number of tourism flows in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years. Thirdly, starting from the reality of Dongjiang Lake tourism, collecting all kinds of information and reliable data through Internet search, questionnaire survey, field investigation and other methods, according to the existing theory of tourism demand, from the characteristics of time structure and spatial structure, This paper analyzes the present situation of Dongjiang Lake tourism from four aspects: demographic structure and consumption structure, and finds out the inherent regularity and sustainable development of Dongjiang Lake tourism. Then, according to the grey system theory, the author establishes the prediction model of the tourism flow in Dongjiang Lake, and uses the data collected from 2003 to 2012 to determine the parameters of the prediction model. After the model has passed the significance test, It is used to forecast the tourist flow in the next five years. Finally, based on the qualitative and quantitative comprehensive analysis, this paper once again delves into the deep reasons for the regularity of Dongjiang Lake tourism, the purpose of which is to give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. In order to make the Dongjiang Lake tourism on the basis of the existing tourism needs to further according to the characteristics of scenic areas, services and other aspects of the construction, so that the development of scenic spots can be more prosperous and sustainable. Through the analysis and research of this paper, we can grasp the present situation and the development law of Dongjiang Lake tourism in essence, and then formulate the corresponding development strategy, which will lay the foundation for Dongjiang Lake tourism to go to the next new peak.
【學位授予單位】：湖南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F592.7

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