本文選題：遼河旅游帶 + 旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《遼寧師范大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著可持續(xù)發(fā)展理念被越來越多的人所重視,旅游—經濟—環(huán)境三者之間的協(xié)調發(fā)展狀況也受到一定的關注。采取定量的分析方法,通過計算旅游、經濟、環(huán)境三個子系統(tǒng)間的耦合協(xié)調度來分析旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的耦合協(xié)調發(fā)展狀況是目前學術界較為青睞的研究方法。文章則針對遼河旅游帶所在的四個城市進行相關的研究。文章以耦合協(xié)調度理論和遼河旅游帶流經的4個城市的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀為基礎,計算出該地區(qū)旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調度,分析其耦合協(xié)調狀況在9年當中的時序演化和空間演化特點。通過運用灰色預測模型GM(1,1),預測遼河旅游帶2014-2018年旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調發(fā)展水平,并對得出的數(shù)值加以分析。最后,文章提出相對應的發(fā)展策略和建議。文章得出的結論如下:第一,遼河旅游帶旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的耦合協(xié)調發(fā)展水平在研究時段內由勉強協(xié)調上升為初級協(xié)調,后期耦合協(xié)調度數(shù)值有所增加,但是沒有邁入更高一層的水平,始終徘徊在初級協(xié)調的狀態(tài)。隨著時間的變化,遼河旅游帶4個城市旅游—經濟—環(huán)境耦合協(xié)調發(fā)展類型表現(xiàn)出兩極分化的局面,即部分地區(qū)為旅游、經濟發(fā)展超前型,部分地區(qū)為環(huán)境發(fā)展超前型,且研究時段內類型變化不大。第二,2005-2013年間,遼河旅游帶旅游—經濟—環(huán)境系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調發(fā)展水平的空間變化呈現(xiàn)出地區(qū)的差異性。盤錦市的耦合協(xié)調水平為逐年好轉的態(tài)勢,鐵嶺和鞍山兩市則始終位于瀕臨失調的層階,沈陽市是在曲折中向前發(fā)展。第三,經GM(1,1)模型模擬預測,在未來2014-2018年間,遼河旅游帶上4個城市中有3個城市的協(xié)調發(fā)展水平呈上升趨勢,整體的發(fā)展形勢較好。但是遼河旅游帶的耦合協(xié)調水平始終位于初級協(xié)調的等級,耦合協(xié)調度提升幅度較小。第四,堅持可持續(xù)發(fā)展的思想,以政府主導為主,加強區(qū)域合作,調整產業(yè)結構、完善法律法規(guī)等,使遼河旅游帶持續(xù)向前協(xié)調發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the concept of sustainable development being paid more and more attention, the coordinated development of tourism, economy and environment has been paid more and more attention. By calculating the degree of coupling and coordination among tourism, economy and environment, it is a preferred research method to analyze the coupling and coordination development of tourism-economic-environment system by using quantitative analysis method. This paper focuses on the four cities where the Liaohe tourist belt is located. Based on the theory of coupling coordination degree and the development status of four cities in Liaohe tourist belt, the paper calculates the coupling coordination degree of tourism-economic-environment system in this area. The characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution of coupling and coordination in 9 years are analyzed. By using the grey prediction model GMX1 / 1, the coupled and coordinated development level of the tourism-economic-environment system in the Liaohe tourist belt from 2014 to 2018 is forecasted, and the numerical value obtained is analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding development strategies and suggestions. The conclusions are as follows: first, the level of coupling and coordination of tourism-economic-environment system in Liaohe tourist belt increased from barely coordinated to primary coordination in the period of study, and the degree of coupling coordination increased in the later period. But did not step into the higher level, always hovering in the state of primary coordination. With the change of time, the coordinated development of tourism, economy and environment in four cities of Liaohe tourist belt shows a polarized situation, that is, tourism in some areas, advanced in economic development, and advanced in environmental development in some areas. There was little change in the type during the study period. From 2005 to 2013, the spatial variation of the coupled level of tourism, economy and environment in the Liaohe tourist belt showed regional differences. The level of coupling and coordination in Panjin City is improving year by year, while Tieling and Anshan cities are always on the level of being on the verge of maladjustment, and Shenyang is developing forward in twists and turns. Thirdly, according to the GMM1Q1) model, in the coming 2014-2018, the coordinated development level of three of the four cities in the Liaohe tourist belt is on the rise, and the overall development situation is better. However, the level of coupling coordination of Liaohe tourist belt is always at the level of primary coordination, and the degree of coupling coordination is small. Fourth, we should adhere to the idea of sustainable development, give priority to the government, strengthen regional cooperation, adjust the industrial structure, perfect the laws and regulations, and make the Liaohe tourist belt develop in a coordinated way.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F592.7

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