發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-23 02:04

  本文選題：Logistic曲線　切入點(diǎn)：旅游競(jìng)合　出處：《燕山大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)和珠三角地區(qū)旅游業(yè)的崛起，京津冀區(qū)域已經(jīng)成為全國(guó)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的第三個(gè)增長(zhǎng)極。京津冀區(qū)域政府也意識(shí)到了旅游競(jìng)合的重要性，召開會(huì)議共同協(xié)商區(qū)域旅游競(jìng)合的發(fā)展，但是目前京津冀區(qū)域旅游合作大多停留在口號(hào)上，出現(xiàn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和管理無序，重復(fù)建設(shè)、資源浪費(fèi)等現(xiàn)象。因此有必要對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域旅游競(jìng)合進(jìn)行研究，，實(shí)現(xiàn)京津冀區(qū)域旅游競(jìng)合的健康發(fā)展，提高區(qū)域旅游整體實(shí)力和綜合競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，從而提高京津冀區(qū)域旅游的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。 本文以京津冀區(qū)域旅游為研究對(duì)象，運(yùn)用旅游地生命周期理論、系統(tǒng)論、增長(zhǎng)極理論、共生理論等相關(guān)理論，分析了京津冀區(qū)域旅游競(jìng)合的條件、競(jìng)合發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及京津冀區(qū)域旅游競(jìng)合的制約因素，選取旅游收入(國(guó)際、國(guó)內(nèi))、旅游者人數(shù)(國(guó)際、國(guó)內(nèi))、旅行社單位數(shù)、星級(jí)飯店單位數(shù)和A級(jí)旅游景區(qū)單位數(shù)為研究指標(biāo)，運(yùn)用Logistic曲線預(yù)測(cè)模型，對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，測(cè)算出“十二五”期間(2011-2015年)京津冀區(qū)域旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)，在此基礎(chǔ)上分別對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域三個(gè)單體的行業(yè)實(shí)力、旅游發(fā)展?jié)摿Α⒙糜纹髽I(yè)實(shí)力進(jìn)行了量化比較分析，確定了京津冀區(qū)域旅游發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，形成了“四圈”聯(lián)動(dòng)一體化發(fā)展的格局，并提出了相應(yīng)發(fā)展對(duì)策，為實(shí)現(xiàn)京津冀區(qū)域“無障礙”旅游，達(dá)到一體化共生的發(fā)展目標(biāo)奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:With the rise of tourism in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become the third growth pole of the national tourism economy. The government of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has also realized the importance of tourism competition. Holding meetings to jointly discuss the development of regional tourism competition and cooperation, but at present, most of the regional tourism cooperation between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei remains on slogans, with competition and management disorderly and repeated construction. Therefore, it is necessary to study the tourism competition and cooperation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, to realize the healthy development of the tourism competition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and to improve the overall strength and comprehensive competitiveness of the regional tourism. So as to improve the overall economic benefits of tourism in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This paper takes the tourism of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object, and analyzes the conditions of tourism competition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by using the theories of tourism destination life cycle theory, system theory, growth pole theory, symbiosis theory and so on. The current situation of competition and development and the restrictive factors of tourism competition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and select the tourism income (international, domestic, tourist number (international, domestic, travel agency unit number), The number of star-rated hotels and the number of units of A-grade tourist attractions are used as the research indexes, and the forecast model of Logistic curve is used to predict the development trend of tourism economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper calculates the economic growth data of tourism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). On this basis, the paper makes a quantitative comparative analysis of the industry strength, tourism development potential and tourism enterprise strength of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper determines the tourism development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, forms the pattern of "four circles" linkage development, and puts forward the corresponding development countermeasures, in order to realize the "barrier-free" tourism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. To achieve the development goal of integration symbiosis lay a theoretical foundation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F592.7;F224

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