本文關(guān)鍵詞：湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警及防范研究　出處：《吉首大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代中期以來，湖南省主要入境旅游市場(chǎng)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新的階段。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定和高速發(fā)展，湖南對(duì)外開放程度的加大和旅游強(qiáng)省戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施，湖南入境旅游必將迎來新的廣闊空間。入境旅游業(yè)的涉外性、游客增長(zhǎng)的不確定性，使得入境旅游經(jīng)營(yíng)具有一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。研究湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)特征、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其預(yù)警，對(duì)政府防范市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、降低旅行社經(jīng)營(yíng)損失，促進(jìn)入境旅游業(yè)良性發(fā)展，具有重要的理論與實(shí)際意義。 本文選取湖南省17個(gè)主要入境旅游市場(chǎng)，根據(jù)1995—2010年游客接待量數(shù)據(jù)，分析了各市場(chǎng)年均占有率、年均增長(zhǎng)率、親景度和游客集中度系數(shù)等指標(biāo)，進(jìn)而分析湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)及14個(gè)地州市的市場(chǎng)特征與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過構(gòu)建市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，選取年均占有率、年均增長(zhǎng)率、親景度均值、人均GNP增長(zhǎng)率、居民消費(fèi)率和高等教育程度率6個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)，建立數(shù)理模型綜合預(yù)警入境市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，劃分市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警度區(qū)間，發(fā)布市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警情。通過問卷調(diào)查及訪談，就湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范，進(jìn)行定量與定性分析。 本文從政府、旅行社及其它相關(guān)層面探討了防范湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要措施：政府設(shè)立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)構(gòu)、加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)調(diào)研與營(yíng)銷、挖掘產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)和政策上扶持旅行社企業(yè)；旅行社增強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警與防范意識(shí)、加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)與信息的搜集整理分析、市場(chǎng)多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)、采取市場(chǎng)補(bǔ)缺者策略、發(fā)展出境游對(duì)沖入境市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；旅游景區(qū)、旅行社涉外一線從業(yè)人員、社區(qū)居民、入境游客自身和媒體采取相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施，從而全面預(yù)警及防范湖南入境旅游市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 文章最后分析了研究中存在的問題與不足，并對(duì)后續(xù)研究進(jìn)行了展望。文章結(jié)合當(dāng)前旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的不確定性以及發(fā)展中的利好形勢(shì)，從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警角度探討市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)湖南省入境旅游業(yè)宏觀戰(zhàn)略制定及旅行社入境旅游微觀預(yù)警以降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來的經(jīng)營(yíng)損失，，具有重要的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, the main inbound tourism market in Hunan province has entered a new stage of development. With the continuous China economy, stable and rapid development, the implementation of the opening degree and increase the Hunan province tourism strategy, Hunan inbound tourism will usher in a broad new space. International inbound tourism, tourist growth uncertainty. The inbound tourism business has some risks. The research of Hunan inbound tourism market, risk and early warning, the government to guard against market risks, reduce travel agency business losses, and promote the healthy development of tourism industry, has important theoretical and practical significance.
This paper selects Hunan province 17 main inbound tourism market, according to 1995 - 2010 visitors receive data, analysis of the annual market share, the average annual growth rate, the preference degree of tourists and the concentration index coefficient, and analysis of the characteristics and the market risks of Hunan inbound tourism market and the 14 prefectures in the market. The risk early warning system, select the average occupancy rate, the average annual growth rate, the preference scale average GNP per capita growth rate, consumption rate and higher education rate of 6 risk early warning indicators, establish mathematical model of comprehensive early warning entry market risk, market risk warning zone division, release of market risk through the questionnaire and interview. Hunan, inbound tourism market risk, risk warning and risk prevention, make quantitative and qualitative analysis.
This article from the government, travel agencies and other related aspects of the main measures to prevent Hunan inbound tourism market risk: the government set up a risk warning mechanism, strengthen the market research and marketing, mining industry advantage and policy support of travel agency travel agency; strengthen risk early warning and prevention awareness, strengthen the collection and analysis of data and information risk early-warning index consolidation, market diversification, market nicher strategy to take the development of outbound tourism, inbound tourism market hedge risk; foreign travel agency, first-line workers, community residents, tourists and the media to take its related risk prevention measures, so as to early warning and prevention of Hunan inbound tourism market risk.
Finally this paper analyzes the problems existing in the research and the insufficiency, and the subsequent research is prospected. Favorable situation combining with the current development of the tourism industry and the uncertainty in the development of the market risk from the perspective of risk warning on the inbound tourism of Hunan Province macro strategic formulation and the travel agency of inbound tourism micro warning to reduce business losses the risk, which has important reference value.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉首大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F592.7

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