【摘要】：山東省是中國(guó)的養(yǎng)豬大省，2011年全省生豬出欄量和豬肉產(chǎn)量分別達(dá)到4301.1萬(wàn)頭和353.2萬(wàn)噸，分別占中國(guó)生豬出欄總量和豬肉總產(chǎn)量的6.45%和6.97%，均居全國(guó)第4位。盡管山東是全國(guó)養(yǎng)豬大省，但不是養(yǎng)豬強(qiáng)省，生豬生產(chǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化水平、現(xiàn)代化水平和產(chǎn)業(yè)化水平較低，周期性波動(dòng)較明顯，生豬和豬肉質(zhì)量安全隱患依然存在。通過(guò)2000-2011年山東省生豬成本效益統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，分析山東生豬成本效益的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)及影響因素，并提出適合山東省未來(lái)一段時(shí)間的生豬飼養(yǎng)規(guī)模。 本文在界定生豬飼養(yǎng)成本和規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)上，利用《全國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品成本效益調(diào)查資料》（2000～2012）的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，首先分析了山東省農(nóng)戶(hù)散養(yǎng)和規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖的成本變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)及影響因素；然后利用灰色局勢(shì)決策法，得出適合山東省目前和未來(lái)一段時(shí)間的合理養(yǎng)殖模式。研究得出：2000-2011年，山東省農(nóng)戶(hù)散養(yǎng)和規(guī)模飼養(yǎng)的成本及成本要素變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)基本一致，成本構(gòu)成要素中飼料費(fèi)、仔豬費(fèi)、人工成本所占比重最大，人工成本隨著規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大在逐漸降低。不同養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模的養(yǎng)殖效益的影響因素也不同，散養(yǎng)戶(hù)和小規(guī)模戶(hù)主要是通過(guò)提高養(yǎng)殖技術(shù)，改善飼料配比結(jié)構(gòu)，提高飼料利用率。小規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖戶(hù)也可以通過(guò)成立專(zhuān)業(yè)化生豬養(yǎng)殖合作社來(lái)提高成本收益率。中規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖戶(hù)和大規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖戶(hù)的勞動(dòng)力投入數(shù)量和精飼料投入量達(dá)到了較為飽和的狀態(tài)，要通過(guò)適當(dāng)減少勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和精飼料投入量或適當(dāng)?shù)目s小養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模。通過(guò)灰色局勢(shì)決策分析法得出，中規(guī)模是最適合山東省生豬養(yǎng)殖的規(guī)模，其次是小規(guī)模和大規(guī)模，山東省應(yīng)引導(dǎo)散養(yǎng)戶(hù)向規(guī)模戶(hù)轉(zhuǎn)變，大力發(fā)展中小規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖，適度發(fā)展大規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖。 為了減輕生豬價(jià)格及物價(jià)波動(dòng)對(duì)生豬飼養(yǎng)的負(fù)面影響，減緩波動(dòng)幅度，，山東省加大對(duì)生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)的科技支持，通過(guò)科技手段改善生豬的養(yǎng)殖環(huán)境，實(shí)現(xiàn)生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。引導(dǎo)農(nóng)戶(hù)轉(zhuǎn)變養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模，創(chuàng)新生豬養(yǎng)殖組織形式，提高生豬養(yǎng)殖的組織化程度。加快飼料業(yè)發(fā)展和加強(qiáng)疫病防控等角度減少外部沖擊，使養(yǎng)豬業(yè)逐漸步入良性循環(huán)的軌道。
[Abstract]:Shandong Province is the largest pig raising province in China. In 2011, the total number of live pigs and the pork output reached 43.011 million and 3.532 million tons respectively, accounting for 6.45 percent and 6.97 percent of the total output of live pigs and pork in China, respectively. Each ranked fourth in the country. Although Shandong is a big province for raising pigs in China, it is not a strong province for raising pigs. The standard level of pig production, the level of modernization and industrialization are low, the periodical fluctuation is obvious, and the hidden danger of pig and pork quality safety still exists. Based on the cost-benefit statistics of live pigs in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2011, the changing trend and influencing factors of the cost benefit of Shandong live pigs were analyzed, and the scale of raising live pigs suitable for a period of time in Shandong Province was put forward. On the basis of defining the raising cost and scale of live pigs, using the statistical data of the National Agricultural Product Cost-benefit Survey (2000 / 2012), this paper first analyzes the trend and influencing factors of the cost variation of peasant households in Shandong Province. Then the grey situation decision method is used to obtain a reasonable breeding model suitable for Shandong province for a period of time. The results show that: from 2000 to 2011, the change trend of the cost and cost elements of the farmers in Shandong Province is basically the same, the feed cost, the piglet fee and the labor cost account for the largest proportion among the cost components, such as fodder fee, piglet fee and labor cost. The cost of labor is decreasing gradually as the scale increases. The factors affecting the efficiency of aquaculture were different in different scale. If the breeders and small-scale heads of household improved the breeding technology, the structure of feed proportion and the utilization rate of feed could be improved. Small-scale farmers can also set up specialized hog farming cooperatives to improve the rate of return on costs. The amount of labor force input and the amount of concentrate feed input of middle scale and large scale breeders have reached the saturation state. The quantity of labor force and the amount of concentrate feed input should be reduced appropriately or the scale of breeding should be reduced appropriately. Through the grey situation decision analysis method, it is concluded that middle scale is the most suitable scale for raising live pigs in Shandong Province, followed by small scale and large scale. Shandong Province should guide retail farmers to transform into large scale households and vigorously develop medium and small scale breeding. Moderate development of large-scale aquaculture. In order to reduce the negative effect of the price and price fluctuation of live pigs on the raising of live pigs, Shandong Province increased the scientific and technological support to the pig industry, improved the raising environment of live pigs by scientific and technological means, and realized the sustainable development of the pig industry. To guide farmers to change the scale of breeding, to innovate the organizational form of pig breeding, and to improve the degree of organization of pig farming. Speed up the development of feed industry and strengthen the prevention and control of epidemic diseases and other angles to reduce external shocks, so that the pig industry gradually into a virtuous cycle track.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F326.3;F302.6

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