【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，先是金融行業(yè)的危機(jī)，，美國(guó)、英國(guó)多家銀行，投資機(jī)構(gòu)破產(chǎn)倒閉，緊接著金融行業(yè)的危機(jī)蔓延到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)，世界范圍內(nèi)的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，美國(guó)，歐洲，日本等大國(guó)和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)一蹶不振，GDP增長(zhǎng)緩慢，甚至負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，失業(yè)率升高，社會(huì)不穩(wěn)定因素增加。連帶著新興國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)也遭受巨大影響，我國(guó)企業(yè)大量破產(chǎn)，特別是沿海地區(qū)的制造業(yè)大量破產(chǎn)，企業(yè)失去訂單，最終企業(yè)家失去自己的企業(yè)，成批成批工人失去工作，從沿海地區(qū)返回自己的家鄉(xiāng)。制造業(yè)作為一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)，它的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展至關(guān)重要，而上市制造業(yè)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況與企業(yè)的發(fā)展息息相關(guān)。本文主要研究A股市場(chǎng)制造行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定情況及財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型。 全文總共分為五部分。第一章介紹了研究背景和研究?jī)?nèi)容與結(jié)構(gòu)，說(shuō)明中國(guó)制造業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)于國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要作用，強(qiáng)調(diào)分析制造業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定及研究制造業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的意義，并且對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的內(nèi)涵作了界定。第二章主要介紹財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)理論與參數(shù)模型方法。財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)理論主要介紹災(zāi)害理論和斯科特的四個(gè)理論模型。參數(shù)模型中主要介紹了一元判斷分析模型、多元判斷分析模型和Logistic模型及各個(gè)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和局限性。在第二章的最后介紹了本文建模過(guò)程中使用到的一種統(tǒng)計(jì)方法主成分分析法。第三章主要介紹了制造業(yè)上市企業(yè)現(xiàn)狀及財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)成因，分析了我國(guó)制造上市企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的特點(diǎn)，并且主要分析財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)企業(yè)與財(cái)務(wù)正常企業(yè)在財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)上的區(qū)別。第四章是針對(duì)我國(guó)制造上市企業(yè)建立財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警Logistic模型，首先對(duì)樣本進(jìn)行選擇，然后針對(duì)制造行業(yè)選擇財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)，本文選取的指標(biāo)為F分?jǐn)?shù)模型中取值的指標(biāo)，然后利用顯著性檢驗(yàn)和多重共線性檢驗(yàn)，所選指標(biāo)通過(guò)了顯著性檢驗(yàn)，但所選取指標(biāo)之間存在多重共線性，利用主成分分析解決多重共線性，求出主成分后再基于主成分進(jìn)行Logistic模型回歸，建立全新我國(guó)制造行業(yè)的Logistic模型，最后對(duì)新建的Logistic模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷念A(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度及預(yù)測(cè)能力。第五章總結(jié)了新設(shè)計(jì)的Logistic模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，分析了新模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和局限性，并且對(duì)后續(xù)的研究提出了相關(guān)建議，進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, first the crisis of the financial industry, the bankruptcy of many banks and investment institutions in the United States and Britain, followed by the crisis in the financial industry spread to the real economy, the real economy in the world, the United States, In Europe, Japan and other big countries and regions, the economic slump has contributed to the slow or even negative growth of GDP, the rise in unemployment and the increase in social instability. Along with the economic impact of emerging countries, China's enterprises have suffered a great deal of bankruptcy, especially in the coastal areas of the manufacturing sector. Enterprises have lost their orders. Finally, entrepreneurs have lost their own businesses and workers have lost their jobs. Return from the coast to your hometown. As the foundation of a country's economic construction and development, the steady development of manufacturing industry is of great importance, and the financial situation of listed manufacturing enterprises is closely related to the development of enterprises. This paper focuses on the A-share market manufacturing industry financial stability and financial warning model. The full text is divided into five parts altogether. The first chapter introduces the background, content and structure of the research, explains the important role of the development of Chinese manufacturing industry in the national economy, and emphasizes the significance of analyzing the financial stability of manufacturing industry and studying the financial early warning of manufacturing industry. And has made the definition to the financial crisis connotation. The second chapter mainly introduces the financial crisis theory and parameter model method. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory and Scott's four theoretical models. In the parameter model, the advantages and limitations of the univariate judgment analysis model, the multivariate judgment analysis model, the Logistic model and each model are introduced. At the end of the second chapter, a statistical method, Principal component Analysis (PCA), is introduced. The third chapter mainly introduces the current situation of manufacturing listed enterprises and the causes of financial crisis, analyzes the characteristics of financial crisis of manufacturing listed enterprises in China, and mainly analyzes the differences between financial crisis enterprises and financial normal enterprises in financial indicators. The fourth chapter is the establishment of financial crisis warning Logistic model for manufacturing listed enterprises in China. First, the sample is selected, then the financial index is selected for manufacturing industry. The index selected in this paper is the index of F-score model. Then, by using significance test and multiple collinearity test, the selected index passed the significance test, but there was multiple collinearity between the selected indexes, and principal component analysis was used to solve the multiple collinearity. The principal component is obtained and then the Logistic model is regressed based on the principal component, and the new Logistic model of manufacturing industry in China is established. Finally, the new Logistic model is tested to test the prediction accuracy and prediction ability of the model. Chapter 5 summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the newly designed Logistic model, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the new model, and puts forward some suggestions and prospects for further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F425;F406.7

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