本文選題：高等學(xué)校 + 財務(wù)風(fēng)險　； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國高等教育自1998年開始為滿足廣大群眾的教育需求，決定逐步實現(xiàn)教育大眾化，高等教育大眾化的目標(biāo)設(shè)定將高等教育的發(fā)展帶入了一個全新的時代，，同時該目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)迫使高校走上了負(fù)債發(fā)展的道路，到2013年高校毛入學(xué)率已達到30%，而此前僅有5%左右的毛入學(xué)率。在我國高等教育從精英式教育向大眾化教育轉(zhuǎn)化的過程中，高校發(fā)展迅猛，高等教育的規(guī)模在短短幾年的時間內(nèi)便達到了世界第一的位置。但也帶來了相應(yīng)的問題，高校發(fā)展過快過粗，粗獷的外延式發(fā)展為高校埋下了不小的隱患。高等教育急速擴招，而政府財政性教育經(jīng)費的投入增加緩慢，高校又沒有能力自己解決資金需求問題，很難通過自身能力在短期內(nèi)獲得足夠的資金。為在短期內(nèi)解決資金瓶頸的問題，高校紛紛采取負(fù)債的方式，而其中最主要的就是向銀行貸款。負(fù)債雖然解決了高校一時的資金問題，但增加了高校的財務(wù)風(fēng)險，而且高校創(chuàng)收能力又沒有得到較大提高，當(dāng)還債日期到來之時，使高校紛紛陷入了財務(wù)危機之中。 本研究首先介紹了有關(guān)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的一些理論和常用分析方法，然后利用層次分析法，通過對高校償債能力、運營能力、發(fā)展能力和綜合能力四個方面的分析，選取了16個指標(biāo)建立了高校財務(wù)預(yù)警模型，最后通過比較43所部屬院校的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，利用Hill點估計法確定高校財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警綜合指數(shù)的閾值，將高校財務(wù)風(fēng)險分為輕警、中警和高警三個級別及兩個過渡階段。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's higher education began to meet the educational needs of the masses and decided to realize the popularization of education gradually. The goal setting of higher education has brought the development of higher education into a new era. At the same time, the realization of this goal compels colleges and universities to go on the road of debt development. By 2013, the gross enrollment rate of colleges and universities has reached a high level. To 30%, there is only about 5% of the gross enrollment rate. In the process of the transformation of higher education from elite education to popular education in China, the higher education has developed rapidly. The scale of higher education has reached the first position in the world in a few years. But it has also brought the corresponding problems, and the university has developed too fast and rough extension. The development of higher education has been a hidden danger. Higher education has expanded the enrollment rapidly, while the investment of government financial education funds is slowly increasing. Colleges and universities do not have the ability to solve the problem of capital demand by themselves. It is difficult to obtain sufficient funds through their own ability in the short term. The most important thing is to loan to the bank. Although the debt has solved the fund problem of the University for a time, it has increased the financial risk of the University, and the University income generating ability has not been greatly improved. When the debt repayment date comes, the university has fallen into the financial crisis.
This study first introduces some theories and common analytical methods about financial risk, and then uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the four aspects of the solvency, operational ability, development ability and comprehensive ability of colleges and universities. 16 indexes have been selected to establish the financial early warning model of colleges and universities. Finally, the relative numbers of 43 subordinate institutions are compared. According to the Hill point estimation method, the threshold of the financial risk early warning comprehensive index is determined, and the financial risks are divided into three levels of light police, middle and high police and two transition stages.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：G647.5

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 周巍;;基于企業(yè)風(fēng)險管理(ERM)框架的高校財務(wù)風(fēng)險控制模型[J];財會研究;2012年17期

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