本文關(guān)鍵詞：實物期權(quán)理論在H公司新的化工項目投資決策中的應(yīng)用研究　出處：《東華大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：作為市場活動的主要參與者，公司目前所面臨的競爭環(huán)境已經(jīng)是一個不斷變化、難以預(yù)測的環(huán)境，其投資經(jīng)營活動也受到各種可能隨時突發(fā)和不可控制因素的影響。在企業(yè)對期限長和不確定性高的項目投資的決策過程中，傳統(tǒng)的決策分析方法（如NPV法）已經(jīng)無法對公司項目投資進行有效的決策分析，決策分析者急需采用更為先進的風(fēng)險管理和決策分析方法進行項目評估，為企業(yè)決策者提供準確的決策支持，從而做出正確的判斷和決策。實物期權(quán)方法，借鑒于系統(tǒng)的金融期權(quán)理論和模型，作為一種新的能夠包括管理柔性的估值思想和方法，充分體現(xiàn)出了在處理投資項目不確定性與靈活性的優(yōu)勢，不但反映項目創(chuàng)造的預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流的貼現(xiàn)值，而且也體現(xiàn)出項目運作過程中管理者進行積極管理所創(chuàng)造出的價值，對傳統(tǒng)的決策方法進行了重要的擴展、補充及修正。 本文首先按照時間脈絡(luò)對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)實物期權(quán)理論和方法的研究進行了綜合介紹，概述了實物期權(quán)方法的理論基礎(chǔ)，，結(jié)合金融期權(quán)理論闡述實物期權(quán)的概念及分類、實物期權(quán)特征以其主要的定價模型；然后，在說明公司項目投資的一般特點和介紹某外資公司H公司計劃新建工廠項目的投資背景的基礎(chǔ)上，討論了H公司項目投資決策方法的比較和選擇思路，通過將實物期權(quán)方法和傳統(tǒng)投資分析方法進行比較分析，闡述了實物期權(quán)方法的適用性、應(yīng)用思路及步驟；最后，通過對H公司實際項目投資案例的決策分析來分別說明傳統(tǒng)凈現(xiàn)值法和實物期權(quán)方法在項目投資決策中的實際應(yīng)用，與傳統(tǒng)凈現(xiàn)值法行比較，論證了實物期權(quán)法是項目投資決策分析和價值計算中的更為有效的方法。 本文結(jié)合H公司的化工項目投資的實際決策分析案例，研究了實物期權(quán)方法在企業(yè)項目投資分析中的實際應(yīng)用，闡明了實物期權(quán)方法對于企業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值創(chuàng)造機會、制定決策和管理風(fēng)險以確保企業(yè)價值最大化的重要戰(zhàn)略意義。
[Abstract]:As the main participants in market activities, the competitive environment that companies are facing is already a constantly changing and unpredictable environment. Its investment and management activities are also affected by a variety of unexpected and uncontrollable factors at any time. In the decision-making process of enterprises to project investment with long term and high uncertainty. The traditional decision analysis method (such as NPV method) has been unable to carry on the effective decision analysis to the company project investment, the decision analyst urgently needs to adopt the more advanced risk management and the decision analysis method to carry on the project appraisal. To provide accurate decision support for enterprise decision-makers, so as to make correct judgment and decision. The real option method is used for reference to the financial option theory and model of the system. As a new valuation idea and method which can include management flexibility, it fully reflects the advantages of dealing with uncertainty and flexibility of investment projects, and not only reflects the discounted value of expected cash flow created by projects. It also reflects the value created by the active management of the managers in the process of project operation, which extends, complements and modifies the traditional decision-making methods. This paper firstly introduces the theories and methods of real options at home and abroad according to the context of time, and summarizes the theoretical basis of real options. Based on the theory of financial options, the concept and classification of real options are expounded. The characteristics of real options are based on their main pricing models. Then, on the basis of explaining the general characteristics of the company's project investment and introducing the investment background of a foreign-funded company's planned new factory project, this paper discusses the comparison of the investment decision methods and the selection ideas of the H company's project investment. By comparing the real option method with the traditional investment analysis method, this paper expounds the applicability, application thought and steps of the real option method. Finally, through the decision analysis of H Company's actual project investment case, the paper explains the practical application of traditional NPV method and real option method in project investment decision, and compares with the traditional NPV method. It is proved that the real option method is a more effective method in project investment decision analysis and value calculation. This paper studies the application of real option method in the investment analysis of chemical project in H Company, which is based on the actual decision analysis case of chemical project investment in H Company. This paper expounds the important strategic significance of real option method in creating opportunities for enterprises to find value, making decisions and managing risks to ensure the maximization of enterprise value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.72;F406.7

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