本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)制造業(yè)上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)與財(cái)務(wù)安全實(shí)證分析　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著信息化管理的發(fā)展，越來(lái)越多的研究者傾向于利用定量分析方法建立企業(yè)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型，來(lái)防范財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的發(fā)生。在定量分析中，國(guó)內(nèi)外大多數(shù)研究者多選用現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)來(lái)建立模型。而本文中，主要著重于從資本結(jié)構(gòu)方面探討財(cái)務(wù)安全的評(píng)估方法。 本文的主要研究思路利用我國(guó)制造業(yè)上市公司2011至2013年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)選定的資本結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行差異性檢驗(yàn)和相關(guān)性篩等方法進(jìn)行比較研究，篩選出最適合作為變量的指標(biāo)，建立基于資本結(jié)構(gòu)的財(cái)務(wù)安全度模型，并隨機(jī)選擇若干上市公司進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析以檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷臏?zhǔn)確性，，同時(shí)抽取樣本數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷膶?shí)用性。 通過(guò)實(shí)證分析，本文總結(jié)出以下幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論 第一，在對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)安全度進(jìn)行分析時(shí)可以著重根據(jù)長(zhǎng)期資本負(fù)責(zé)，資本負(fù)債率，股本構(gòu)成比率以及流動(dòng)負(fù)責(zé)構(gòu)成率來(lái)展開(kāi)。 第二，從三年數(shù)據(jù)擬合的模型來(lái)看，長(zhǎng)期資本負(fù)債率，股本構(gòu)成比率，流動(dòng)負(fù)責(zé)構(gòu)成比率對(duì)模型的貢獻(xiàn)最大，可見(jiàn)財(cái)務(wù)安全程度與企業(yè)的負(fù)責(zé)程度，股本的構(gòu)成以及流動(dòng)負(fù)責(zé)構(gòu)成比率有主要的關(guān)系。 第三，從對(duì)P值的計(jì)算和排序可以看出，這一模型可以依據(jù)過(guò)去一段時(shí)間的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)測(cè)算企業(yè)在過(guò)去的財(cái)務(wù)安全程度，有利于企業(yè)根據(jù)P值的變化來(lái)關(guān)注企業(yè)實(shí)際的財(cái)務(wù)狀況的發(fā)展變化。
[Abstract]:With the development of information management, more and more researchers tend to use quantitative analysis method to establish enterprise crisis warning model to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis. Most researchers at home and abroad choose the cash flow index to build the model. In this paper, we mainly focus on the capital structure from the perspective of financial security evaluation methods. Based on the financial data of listed manufacturing companies from 2011 to 2013, the main research ideas of this paper are to compare and study the difference test and correlation sieve of the selected capital structure indicators. Select the most suitable indicators as variables, establish a financial security model based on capital structure, and randomly select a number of listed companies to forecast and analyze to verify the accuracy of the model. At the same time, sample data is taken to test the practicability of the model. Through empirical analysis, this paper summarizes the following conclusions Firstly, in the analysis of financial security of enterprises, we can focus on long-term capital responsibility, capital debt ratio, equity composition ratio and current responsibility composition ratio. Second, from the model of three year data fitting, the long-term capital debt ratio, equity composition ratio, current responsibility composition ratio contribute the most to the model, we can see the degree of financial security and the degree of corporate responsibility. The composition of the capital stock and the composition of the current responsibility ratio have a major relationship. Third, from the calculation and ranking of P value, we can see that this model can measure the financial security degree of enterprises in the past based on the data of the past period of time. It is advantageous for enterprises to pay attention to the development and change of the actual financial situation according to the change of P value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F425;F832.51;F406.7

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 蒲春燕;孫璐;;企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)安全概念研究[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2009年02期

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