本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)規(guī)范的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 投資方 清單計(jì)價(jià) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素 概率分布 蒙特卡洛模擬

【摘要】：目前,投資方在投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程時(shí)面臨的問題主要有投資大、完成時(shí)間長、并且整個(gè)完成過程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)復(fù)雜繁多。投資商投資建設(shè)項(xiàng)目時(shí),首先需要明確項(xiàng)目的性質(zhì),因?yàn)轫?xiàng)目一旦開始,就要經(jīng)歷可行性研究以及招投標(biāo)過程,施工過程以及竣工驗(yàn)收,合格之后,才進(jìn)入正式的盈利階段,每個(gè)階段遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)目都很多,而且復(fù)雜程度很高,一旦沒有及時(shí)的對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)測并且防范,整個(gè)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的成本就會(huì)增加,從而導(dǎo)致投資方投資的費(fèi)用增多。最直接的說法就是投資人是不是能夠可行性研究找到合適的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,能不能通過招投標(biāo)選擇一個(gè)靠得住的施工單位以及施工單位能不能做好工程,竣工驗(yàn)收是否合格,最后在銷售階段,宣傳是否到位,利潤是否和預(yù)期一樣或者超過了預(yù)期的盈利能力。因此對建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是否合理,直接關(guān)系到建設(shè)項(xiàng)目是否可以順利開展和完成,也關(guān)系到該項(xiàng)目工程質(zhì)量能否達(dá)標(biāo)、工程成本是否合理以及施工工期有沒有拖延。本文以投資者的角度對2013版建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)規(guī)范進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的剖析,并運(yùn)用層次分析法列舉出投資方運(yùn)用清單計(jì)價(jià)投資時(shí)所面臨的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn),重點(diǎn)研究了招標(biāo)過程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且認(rèn)為在建設(shè)項(xiàng)目招標(biāo)過程中投資方面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以分為兩類:一般風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn),特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常只出現(xiàn)在建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中。針對于一般類的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),我國現(xiàn)階段所掌握的技術(shù)手段和技術(shù)方法足以解決。出現(xiàn)不是一般性質(zhì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也就是意味著該項(xiàng)工程也有著特殊之處,在使用工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)時(shí),針對不同的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,經(jīng)常會(huì)遇到此類的問題,而主要方面就是不平衡報(bào)價(jià)以及實(shí)際的工程量和合同訂立的工程量不符等問題。以投資者的角度分析了建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中投資人所要面臨的全過程風(fēng)險(xiǎn),結(jié)合專家調(diào)查和概率論相結(jié)合的方法分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù)符合的具體概率分布模型和相對應(yīng)的參數(shù)值,在建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子框架的基礎(chǔ)上,組建蒙特卡洛模擬投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型。該模型對項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過程中的各環(huán)節(jié)所涉及的方法、評價(jià)因素等進(jìn)行了選取,分析了如何利用蒙特卡洛方法對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析,然后,對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行提取,并將提取出的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素組成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系,有具體數(shù)據(jù)之后,運(yùn)用模擬軟件進(jìn)行隨機(jī)模擬,預(yù)測出總投資的具體數(shù)值,并對主要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行敏感性分析,預(yù)測主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對總投資的影響,找出對項(xiàng)目影響程度最大的幾個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,方便投資者對這幾項(xiàng)采取一定的預(yù)防措施,主動(dòng)規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),減少費(fèi)用的增加。
[Abstract]:At present, investors face in the investment of construction project is the main problems of large investment, long time to complete, and the risk in the process of completion of the entire complex. Investment in construction projects, first need to clear the nature of the project, because the project once started, will experience a feasibility study and bidding process, construction process and after the completion of acceptance, qualified, did not enter the earnings period of formal, many number of risk encountered in each stage, and a high degree of complexity, if not timely risk prediction and prevention, the construction project cost will increase, resulting in investment cost increase. The most direct argument is that investors are not to find a suitable construction project feasibility study, can through the bidding to choose the construction units and construction of a reliable single can not do Project completion acceptance is qualified in the final stage of sales promotion is in place, whether the profit and expected or exceeds the expected profitability. Therefore the risk analysis of construction project is reasonable, directly related to whether the construction project can be smoothly carried out and completed, but also related to the quality of the projects can reach the standard, the cost of the project whether it is reasonable and the construction period there is no delay. In this paper, the point of view of the investors in the 2013 edition of the construction project quantity list valuation specification were analyzed in detail, and uses AHP to main risk investment valuation of investment by name when facing, focuses on the risk in the bidding process, and that the investors face the risk in the bidding process of construction projects can be divided into two types: general risk and special risk, special risk usually only appear in the construction of the project. The needle The risk for the general class of technical means and technical methods in the present stage of our country have to solve. The risk is not the general nature, which means that the project also has a special place in the use of bill of quantities, according to the different construction projects, often encounter such problems, and the main aspect is the problem of unbalanced quotation as well as the actual engineering quantity and contract quantity discrepancies and so on. In the view of investors of the whole process of construction project risk investors faced, methods based on expert investigation and probability theory combined with analysis of specific parameters of probability distribution model and the corresponding data in accordance with the risk value based on risk factor framework, the formation of the Monte Carlo simulation model. The model of investment risk involved in all aspects of the project construction process, evaluation factors etc. The selection and analysis of how to use Monte Carlo method to the analysis of risk factors, then the risk factors were the main risk factors for extraction, and the extracted form a risk index system, with specific data, random simulation using simulation software, numerical prediction of the total investment, and analyze the sensitivity of risk factors mainly, the main risk factors for prediction of the total investment, find out the main risk factors impact on large projects, to facilitate the investors of these several take certain precautions, to avoid risks, reduce costs increase.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.92

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