本文關(guān)鍵詞：HD輸變電項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)可行性研究　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 可行性研究 財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià) 敏感性分析

【摘要】：電力行業(yè)是基礎(chǔ)支持產(chǎn)業(yè)，它的發(fā)展水平直接關(guān)系到相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的好壞，它是社會(huì)和諧與經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的重要保證，而輸變電項(xiàng)目可行性研究和建設(shè)是電力行業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大的重要體現(xiàn)，在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和保障居民生活方面具有重要的作用。 B市位于廣東西翼，是整個(gè)廣東省西部的電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷中心。隨著鋼鐵基地、中科煉油化工等大項(xiàng)目的投產(chǎn)，用電將會(huì)迅猛增長(zhǎng)。B市目前正面臨供電不足，用電緊張的趨勢(shì)，HD項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)能夠有效地緩解B市電網(wǎng)的供電壓力，電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷壓力巨大、供電源不足的問題，并保證居民生活用電、促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展。項(xiàng)目投資決策前必須要對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行可行性研究，在項(xiàng)目技術(shù)是可行的前提條件下，還要對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)可行性研究，本文針對(duì)B市的投資環(huán)境對(duì)HD項(xiàng)目投資估算、財(cái)務(wù)融資、財(cái)務(wù)收益進(jìn)行了分析研究，通過敏感性分析評(píng)估了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的影響，并針對(duì)性地提出了防范對(duì)策。 本文首先對(duì)HD項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的區(qū)域環(huán)境和項(xiàng)目建設(shè)概況進(jìn)行分析，確定了項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)規(guī)模、建設(shè)時(shí)間、項(xiàng)目選址的合理性。其次，在確定了項(xiàng)目的投資估算后，通過與限額指標(biāo)進(jìn)行對(duì)比，進(jìn)行了項(xiàng)目投資的合理性分析，同時(shí)還從融資的角度，分析了項(xiàng)目的籌資比例，確定了項(xiàng)目籌資的方式和計(jì)劃籌資年限；然后以《輸變電工程經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)導(dǎo)則》作為財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)依據(jù)，通過對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)得出的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算和分析，編制項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流量表，采用凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率作為盈利能力的決策指標(biāo)，計(jì)算得出項(xiàng)目?jī)衄F(xiàn)值為11708.53萬元，項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率為9.95%，項(xiàng)目的投資回收期為10.38年；同時(shí)通過資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、利息備付率、償債備付率的動(dòng)態(tài)指標(biāo)對(duì)投資單位的償債能力進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，得出投資企業(yè)在借款期內(nèi)也能還清債務(wù)，所以項(xiàng)目具備財(cái)務(wù)可行性。 由于HD項(xiàng)目處于可行性研究階段，大部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)都是通過以往工程經(jīng)驗(yàn)估算得出，評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果與實(shí)際可能出現(xiàn)偏差。因此，還需要對(duì)HD項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行不確定性分析，本文首先對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了單因素敏感性分析，選用凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率兩個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)決策指標(biāo)，確定HD項(xiàng)目的敏感性因素，然后通過對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析確定敏感性因素的變化幅度，通過多因素敏感性分析識(shí)別項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，并提出應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is the basic industry support, its development level is directly related to the quality of the industry, it is an important guarantee for the healthy social harmony and economic development, and the power transmission project feasibility study and construction is an important embodiment of the power industry to expand the scale of production, plays an important role in the social economic development and protect the lives of the residents.
B Guangdong city is located in the west wing, is the center of the whole power grid load in the west of Guangdong province. With the steel base, a large oil refining and chemical production projects, electricity will be the rapid growth of.B city is currently facing a shortage of electricity, with the trend of power shortage, the construction of the HD project can effectively alleviate the pressure of power supply B power grid power load, pressure, power supply problems, and to ensure that residents of electricity, promote the rapid development of the local economy. We must conduct a feasibility study of the project before the investment decision, the project condition is feasible, but also to carry out research on financial feasibility of the project, the investment environment for the city of B HD project investment, financing, financial income was analyzed, through sensitivity analysis evaluated the impact of risk on the project construction, and puts forward the countermeasures.
Firstly, regional environment of HD project construction and project construction situation analysis, to determine the scale of construction projects, the construction time, the location of the project is reasonable. Secondly, in determining investment projects, by comparing with the quota index, analyzes the rationality of project investment, but also from the perspective of financing the analysis, the proportion of financing project, determine the project financing mode and financing plan period; and then to < > as guidelines for economic evaluation of power transmission project financial evaluation based on the calculation and analysis of the financial data to predict the project cash flow statement, decision-making index by using the net present value and internal rate of return as profitability the calculation of the net present value is 117 million 85 thousand and 300 yuan, the internal rate of return is 9.95%, the payback period of the project is 10.38 years; at the same time, the asset liability ratio, The dynamic index of interest reserve ratio and debt service reserve ratio is used to evaluate the debt paying ability of investment units. It is concluded that investment enterprises can also repay debts in the loan period, so the project has financial feasibility.
The HD project is in the feasibility study stage, most of the data are estimated by the previous engineering experience, the evaluation results and the actual deviation may occur. Therefore, but also the need for uncertainty analysis of HD project, this paper analyzed the single factor sensitivity of the project, the net present value and internal rate of return of two dynamic decision index, determine the sensitivity factors of the HD project, and then change the sensitivity factors determined by the analysis of the data, through multi factor sensitivity analysis to identify the risk factors of the project, and put forward the risk response measures.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F406.72

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