本文關(guān)鍵詞：林州光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資效益及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 太陽能 光伏發(fā)電 投資效益 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與能源枯竭之間的矛盾、環(huán)境保護(hù)與能源生產(chǎn)之間的矛盾日漸突出,發(fā)展清潔可再生能源,維持經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,成為全人類共同關(guān)心的焦點(diǎn)問題。太陽能作為一種近乎取之不竭的可再生能源,同時(shí)又具有完全清潔無污染的特點(diǎn),具有極大的開發(fā)前景,大力發(fā)展光伏發(fā)電已經(jīng)被確立為我國(guó)能源戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分。然而現(xiàn)階段最令人矚目的太陽能技術(shù)——光伏發(fā)電,盡管近年來獲得了快速發(fā)展,整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈還處于成長(zhǎng)期,成熟度有待提高,因此與光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目誘人前景相伴生的是極高的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另一方面光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資仍然缺乏一套科學(xué)的評(píng)價(jià)與決策機(jī)制,盲目的投資決策很容易導(dǎo)致投資不足或產(chǎn)能過剩,這成為制約光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要因素。因而,從理論上研究光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資的特點(diǎn)及其影響因素,分析項(xiàng)目的投資構(gòu)成、運(yùn)營(yíng)成本、經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)效益,以及項(xiàng)目可能存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出科學(xué)的投資評(píng)價(jià)與決策機(jī)制,顯得尤為重要。 本文根據(jù)光伏發(fā)電的基本原理,從技術(shù)、自然環(huán)境以及國(guó)家政策等角度對(duì)影響光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資效益的因素進(jìn)行分析；在對(duì)光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目總投資與運(yùn)營(yíng)成本的構(gòu)成及特點(diǎn)詳細(xì)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資、運(yùn)營(yíng)成本以及發(fā)電收益的計(jì)算方法進(jìn)行研究,從財(cái)務(wù)效益、節(jié)能減排效益、社會(huì)效益3個(gè)方面構(gòu)建了光伏發(fā)電綜合效益評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用AHP法確定了各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重。以林州光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目為例,對(duì)項(xiàng)目投資額、運(yùn)營(yíng)成本以及實(shí)際發(fā)電量進(jìn)行詳細(xì)測(cè)算,并據(jù)此通過計(jì)算凈現(xiàn)值、投資回收期以及內(nèi)部收益率等一系列財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對(duì)項(xiàng)目直接經(jīng)濟(jì)效益進(jìn)行評(píng)估,同時(shí)從節(jié)能、減排以及社會(huì)效益等角度對(duì)林州項(xiàng)目的間接效益進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。最后結(jié)合光伏電站項(xiàng)目發(fā)展過程中的實(shí)際情況,從政策、項(xiàng)目建設(shè)、運(yùn)營(yíng)以及宏觀環(huán)境等角度對(duì)光伏電站存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素出發(fā),運(yùn)用因子分析法,對(duì)項(xiàng)目的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行識(shí)別,分析了各因素對(duì)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響機(jī)制,為下一步光伏電站建設(shè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制預(yù)案以及項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施提供一定的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文提出的光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目投資效益與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系,可為同類光伏項(xiàng)目的開發(fā)運(yùn)營(yíng)提供參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy, the contradiction between economic growth and energy depletion, the contradiction between environmental protection and energy production is increasingly prominent, the development of clean and renewable energy to maintain sustainable economic and social development. Solar energy is an inexhaustible renewable energy, and has the characteristics of clean and pollution-free, and has a great prospect of development. The development of photovoltaic power generation has been established as an important part of China's energy strategy. However, photovoltaic power generation, the most attractive solar technology at present, has achieved rapid development in recent years. The whole industry chain is still in the growth period, the maturity needs to be improved. Therefore, the attractive prospect of photovoltaic power generation project is accompanied by a very high investment risk. On the other hand, there is still a lack of a set of scientific evaluation and decision-making mechanism for photovoltaic power project investment. Blind investment decision can easily lead to insufficient investment or overcapacity, which has become an important factor restricting the development of photovoltaic industry. Therefore, the characteristics and influencing factors of photovoltaic power project investment are studied theoretically. It is very important to analyze the investment composition, operation cost, economic and social benefits, and the possible risk factors of the project. On this basis, it is very important to put forward a scientific investment evaluation and decision-making mechanism. According to the basic principle of photovoltaic power generation, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the investment benefit of photovoltaic power generation project from the aspects of technology, natural environment and national policy. On the basis of detailed analysis of the composition and characteristics of the total investment and operating cost of photovoltaic power generation project, the calculation method of the investment, operating cost and power generation income of photovoltaic power generation project is studied, and the financial benefits are obtained. The comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of photovoltaic power generation is constructed in three aspects of energy saving and emission reduction benefit and social benefit. The weight of each index is determined by AHP method. Taking the photovoltaic power generation project of Linzhou as an example, the investment of the project is given. The operating cost and actual electricity generation are calculated in detail, and a series of financial indicators, such as net present value, investment recovery period and internal rate of return, are used to evaluate the direct economic benefits of the project, and at the same time, from the perspective of energy conservation. The indirect benefits of Linzhou project are evaluated from the perspective of emission reduction and social benefits. Finally, combining with the actual situation in the development process of photovoltaic power plant project, from the policy, project construction. From the point of view of operation and macro environment, the paper uses factor analysis method to identify the key risk factors of the project, and analyzes the influence mechanism of each factor on the economic benefits of the project. It provides some guidance significance for the next risk control plan of PV power plant construction and the risk control measures in the project operation. The investment benefit and risk evaluation system proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the development and operation of similar photovoltaic projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.61

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