發(fā)布時間：2019-02-09 15:18

【摘要】：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)總量之間的影響和替代關(guān)系不僅是經(jīng)濟(jì)運行內(nèi)在規(guī)律的體現(xiàn),也是進(jìn)行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策干預(yù)的基礎(chǔ)。我國宏觀調(diào)控的基本目標(biāo)是保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長、物價水平基本穩(wěn)定和實現(xiàn)充分就業(yè)。菲利普斯曲線正是將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中的上述核心變量聯(lián)系在一起,它是描述物價水平、失業(yè)和產(chǎn)出增長率的重要經(jīng)驗定律。本文中,我們利用平滑遷移模型(STAR)對我國的新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線進(jìn)行了經(jīng)驗分析,檢驗結(jié)果表明我國存在顯著的非線性特征的菲利普斯曲線形式,并且此特征由邏輯函數(shù)刻畫,非線性轉(zhuǎn)換大約發(fā)生在通脹預(yù)期為2.6%的附近,且轉(zhuǎn)換速度顯著。
[Abstract]:The influence and substitution relationship between macroeconomic aggregate is not only the embodiment of the inherent law of economic operation, but also the basis of macroeconomic regulation and control and economic policy intervention. The basic goal of macro-control in China is to maintain sustained economic growth, stable price level and full employment. The Phillips curve is an important empirical law to describe the price level, unemployment and output growth rate. In this paper, we use the smooth migration model (STAR) to analyze the new Keynesian Phillips curve in China. The test results show that there is a significant nonlinear form of Phillips curve in China. This feature is characterized by logic function. The nonlinear transformation occurs about 2.6% of the inflation expectation, and the speed of the conversion is significant.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;
【分類號】：F015

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本文編號：2419093