互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)投資價值研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-25 03:51
【摘要】： 在20世紀(jì)的最后兩個十年中，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)作為改變整個世界運行狀態(tài)與構(gòu)成結(jié)構(gòu)的一種新興事物開始萌生、發(fā)展以及壯大，到目前為止已經(jīng)在世界政治、經(jīng)濟、文化、人類生活等等各個方面產(chǎn)生了翻天覆地的深刻影響�？梢哉f，有別于傳統(tǒng)的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟的20世紀(jì)晚期以及21世紀(jì)的新興經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)在驅(qū)動要素就是網(wǎng)絡(luò)，新興經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)了地緣空間上的突飛猛進(jìn)，亦即當(dāng)代最引人注目的經(jīng)濟社會的全球化形態(tài)。這就是網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟，我們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入到網(wǎng)絡(luò)時代。 在網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的時代里，網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出完全不同于傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟的價值增長方式和資本擴張方式，其擴張速度如果從傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的角度來看，幾乎是不可思議的，如亞馬遜公司自成立的三年半的時間內(nèi)，公司年營業(yè)收入迅速從51萬美元擴張到6.1億美元，但更令人驚異的是網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)在資本市場的表現(xiàn)，大部分網(wǎng)絡(luò)股近幾年均上漲了幾倍甚至幾十倍，但同他們高企的股價相比的是，除雅虎等少數(shù)公司外，大部分互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司從來就沒有盈利，甚至在短期內(nèi)也看不見贏利的希望。 顯然，，在這種情況下，我們?nèi)绻^續(xù)套用傳統(tǒng)的投資價值評估體系和市盈率定價模型來對網(wǎng)絡(luò)股來進(jìn)行投資價值分析和定價，只會得出一個結(jié)論：市場錯了。但是事實并不是這樣，因為人們看好網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的并非是它現(xiàn)在的贏利能力，而是其爆炸性的成長速度和未來收益的巨大預(yù)期。 作為證券市場的研究者和參與者，我們應(yīng)牢記“市場永遠(yuǎn)是正確的”這句箴言，主動去適應(yīng)市場。既然市場是正確的，那么就也只能有一個結(jié)論：用傳統(tǒng)的投資價值評估體系和市盈率定價模型來對網(wǎng)絡(luò)股來進(jìn)行投資價值分析和定價是錯誤的。怎樣才能建立適應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟時代的投資價值評估方式和定價模型，已成為擺在我們面前一個即具有重要的理論探討意義和又具有重大實踐意義的課題。 本文即試圖通過對網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)業(yè)的價值源泉進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟學(xué)上的分析，然后在此基礎(chǔ)上，首先設(shè)計一整套關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的價值評估體系，然后再WP=3建立一個能將網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟所特有的價值指標(biāo)（如注冊用戶數(shù)、葉面瀏覽率等）準(zhǔn)確轉(zhuǎn)化為可比的收入、贏利指標(biāo)并涵蓋其超強增長潛力的定價模型，這正是寫作本文的目的所在。 本文的寫作思路主要是圍繞如何構(gòu)建網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)的價值評估體系定價模型而展開的。 首先運用大量數(shù)據(jù)和事實來說明，世界范圍內(nèi)網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展在呼喚人們對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟價值源泉的研究及適合于網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的定價模型，其后在展開對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟價值源泉的理論探索前，首先幾個問題作出了界定，既網(wǎng)絡(luò)是否僅僅是一種工具，網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)是生產(chǎn)力還是生產(chǎn)關(guān)系， 網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟能否創(chuàng)造價值，以及什么是網(wǎng)絡(luò)時代新的財富觀。并以此作為我們理論的基礎(chǔ)，運用經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理解釋了網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的三個基本價值源泉：直接經(jīng)濟，注意力經(jīng)濟和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟。其后我們運用上述對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟價值源泉的經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析，首先按現(xiàn)階段對網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)的分類，即網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備提供商、網(wǎng)絡(luò)運行提供商、網(wǎng)絡(luò)接入服務(wù)商（ISP）、網(wǎng)絡(luò)內(nèi)容提供商（ICP）、電子商務(wù)五個層次，分別對其價值創(chuàng)造進(jìn)行了分析，并在其后提出了一套關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)的價值評估體系，然后在基于傳統(tǒng)的P/E的基礎(chǔ)上，推出了TEMA——P/E/G定價方法。并在文章的最后，運用比較經(jīng)濟學(xué)的分析方法和上文所推出的定價模型，結(jié)合手頭資料，對世界上最著名的電子商務(wù)企業(yè)——亞馬遜書店進(jìn)行了一個簡單的定價分析。 本文共分五章，各章的主要內(nèi)容和觀點如下： 第一章是導(dǎo)論，第一部分主要通過大量事實和數(shù)據(jù)的陳列，表明網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)到來并成為驅(qū)動21世紀(jì)新興經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)在驅(qū)動要素，從而引出本論文的論點所在：即對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟價值來源的探索和構(gòu)建一套關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)的價值評估體系和網(wǎng)絡(luò)股定價模式。在第二部分主要介紹了近期國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟學(xué)界關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的一些研究觀點 ，第三部分主要介紹了本文的研究主題、方法和論文結(jié)構(gòu)。 第二章主要對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的價值源泉做了經(jīng)濟學(xué)基礎(chǔ)上的理論分析，在運用經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的價值源泉之前，筆者首先對幾個問題作出了一個界定：既網(wǎng)絡(luò)是不是僅是一種工具？網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)是生產(chǎn)力WP=4又是生產(chǎn)關(guān)系？網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟能否創(chuàng)造價值以及什么是網(wǎng)絡(luò)時代新的財富觀。 在對上述幾個問題作出界定以后，我們將之作為我們理論的前提并在第二部分對網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟價值源泉的經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析中，明確提出網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的三個基本價值源泉: 一、直接經(jīng)濟。即網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟的直接性決定了它比工業(yè)經(jīng)濟有著更經(jīng)濟的生產(chǎn)營銷體系,其所節(jié)省的大量資源消耗與交易成本則轉(zhuǎn)化為巨大的價值源泉 二、注意力經(jīng)濟。文中提出對于能夠零邊界成本地?zé)o限復(fù)制的信息來說,其價值的衡量必須以注意力為標(biāo)準(zhǔn);只有獲得注意力的信息才具有價值。這就是注意力經(jīng)濟的本質(zhì)。隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)逐步發(fā)展成為信息社會的基礎(chǔ)信息平臺,它將獲得對注意力資源的完全控制權(quán),同時這也意味著巨大的價值、財富的轉(zhuǎn)移。 三、規(guī)模經(jīng)濟。文中提出網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟是典型的規(guī)模報酬遞增經(jīng)濟，這主要具有兩方面的含義 1."互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的價值等于其節(jié)點數(shù)的平方”,即著名的網(wǎng)絡(luò)法則--Metcalfe法則。2.收益遞增。由以上兩點可看出,隨著規(guī)模(用戶)的增長而呈現(xiàn)的收入(價值)二次方程式增長與平均成本迅速下降,構(gòu)成了網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟獨特的規(guī)模報酬遞增
[Abstract]:In the last two decades of the 20th century, the Internet, as an emerging thing that changes the state and structure of the world's entire world, has started, developed and expanded, and has so far been in the world's political, economic, cultural, Human life and so on have a profound impact on all aspects. It can be said that different from the traditional industrial economy, the late 20th century of the agricultural economy and the inner driving factor of the emerging economy of the 21st century are the network, and the emerging economy has realized the rapid development of the geo-space, that is, the most striking economic and social globalization. This is the network economy, and we have entered the network age. In the era of network economy, the network enterprise presents the value growth mode and the capital expansion mode completely different from the traditional industrial economy, and the expansion speed of the network enterprise is almost inconceivable from the perspective of the traditional industry, such as the self-made of the Amazon. In the three-and-a-and-a-half years of the year, the company's annual operating income has quickly expanded from $51.1 million to $6.1 billion, but it is more surprising that most of the network shares have risen several times or even a few times in recent years, compared to their high share price, In addition to a few companies such as Yahoo, most of the Internet companies have never been profitable, or even in the short term We can't see the hope of making a profit. Obviously, in this case, if we continue to apply the traditional investment value evaluation system and the price-to-earnings pricing model, we can invest in the network shares. The analysis and pricing will only result in a conclusion that the market is wrong. But the truth is not that, because it is not the current profitability of the network, but it's not The explosive growth rate and the great expectations of future earnings. As the researchers and participants in the stock market, we should keep in mind the "The market is a" As the market is right, there is only one conclusion: the traditional investment value evaluation system And how to set up an investment value evaluation method and a pricing model that can meet the economic times of the network has become a problem before us. In this paper, the author tries to make an economic analysis of the value source of the network industry, and then, on the basis of this, first design a complete set of network shares. The value evaluation system, then WP = 3, establishes a value index (such as the registered user number, the leaf surface browsing rate, etc.) specific to the network economy to be accurately converted This is the purpose of writing this article for comparable income, profitability indicators and pricing models that cover their strong growth potential. The article's thinking is mainly about how to build the pricing model of the value-evaluation system of the network enterprise. First of all, we use a lot of data and facts to illustrate the world. The rapid development of the network economy calls for the study of the source of the value source of the network economy and the pricing model which is suitable for the network shares. a definition is made as to whether the network is merely a tool, whether the network technology is productivity or production relations, whether the network economy can create value, and what is the network On the basis of our theory, this paper explains the three basic value sources of the network economy: the direct economy, the attention economy and the scale economy. Then we use the above-mentioned economic analysis of the source of the economic value of the network, firstly, according to the present stage, The classification of network enterprises, that is, network equipment provider, network operation provider, network access service provider (ISP), network content provider (ICP), and e-commerce five levels, have made the value creation respectively. Based on the traditional P/ E, the TEMA _ P/ E/ G pricing method is introduced and compared with the traditional P/ E. the analytical method of economics and the pricing model introduced above, Combined with the information on hand, a simple price analysis is carried out on the most famous e-commerce enterprise _ Amazon bookshop in the world. The paper is divided into five chapters. The main content and point of view of the chapters is as follows: Chapter one is the introduction, the first part mainly through a large number of facts and the display of the data, indicating the network The economy has come and becomes the inner driving factor to drive the emerging economy of the 21st century, so as to lead out the thesis's argument: the exploration and construction of the source of network economic value. The second part mainly introduces some research points on the network economy in the recent domestic economic circle, and the third part mainly introduces the subject, the method and the structure of the paper. The second chapter is mainly on the network The economic value source is the theoretical analysis on the basis of economics, Before the analysis of the value source of the network economy, the author first made a definition of several problems: not only is the network only a tool, the network technology is the productivity WP = 4 and the production relations? The network economy Can you create value to and what is the new concept of wealth in the network age. After defining the above problems, we will serve as the premise of our theory and in the second part the source of network economic value In the economic analysis of spring, the three basic value sources of the network economy are put forward: one, the direct economy, that is, the direct nature of the network economy It's more economical than the industrial economy The production and marketing system, which saves a large amount of resource consumption and transaction cost, is converted into a great source of value, and the attention is economy. zero-to-zero boundary cost The measurement of its value must focus on the standard of attention. It is the essence of the attention economy. With the gradual development of the Internet as the basic information platform of the information society, it will gain full control of attention resources, and it also means great value, the transfer of wealth............................................................................................................................ Ji. The text of the article The network economy is a typical scale-reward-increasing economy, which has two meanings: "The value of the Internet is equ"
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2000
【分類號】：F062.5
本文編號：2485467
[Abstract]:In the last two decades of the 20th century, the Internet, as an emerging thing that changes the state and structure of the world's entire world, has started, developed and expanded, and has so far been in the world's political, economic, cultural, Human life and so on have a profound impact on all aspects. It can be said that different from the traditional industrial economy, the late 20th century of the agricultural economy and the inner driving factor of the emerging economy of the 21st century are the network, and the emerging economy has realized the rapid development of the geo-space, that is, the most striking economic and social globalization. This is the network economy, and we have entered the network age. In the era of network economy, the network enterprise presents the value growth mode and the capital expansion mode completely different from the traditional industrial economy, and the expansion speed of the network enterprise is almost inconceivable from the perspective of the traditional industry, such as the self-made of the Amazon. In the three-and-a-and-a-half years of the year, the company's annual operating income has quickly expanded from $51.1 million to $6.1 billion, but it is more surprising that most of the network shares have risen several times or even a few times in recent years, compared to their high share price, In addition to a few companies such as Yahoo, most of the Internet companies have never been profitable, or even in the short term We can't see the hope of making a profit. Obviously, in this case, if we continue to apply the traditional investment value evaluation system and the price-to-earnings pricing model, we can invest in the network shares. The analysis and pricing will only result in a conclusion that the market is wrong. But the truth is not that, because it is not the current profitability of the network, but it's not The explosive growth rate and the great expectations of future earnings. As the researchers and participants in the stock market, we should keep in mind the "The market is a" As the market is right, there is only one conclusion: the traditional investment value evaluation system And how to set up an investment value evaluation method and a pricing model that can meet the economic times of the network has become a problem before us. In this paper, the author tries to make an economic analysis of the value source of the network industry, and then, on the basis of this, first design a complete set of network shares. The value evaluation system, then WP = 3, establishes a value index (such as the registered user number, the leaf surface browsing rate, etc.) specific to the network economy to be accurately converted This is the purpose of writing this article for comparable income, profitability indicators and pricing models that cover their strong growth potential. The article's thinking is mainly about how to build the pricing model of the value-evaluation system of the network enterprise. First of all, we use a lot of data and facts to illustrate the world. The rapid development of the network economy calls for the study of the source of the value source of the network economy and the pricing model which is suitable for the network shares. a definition is made as to whether the network is merely a tool, whether the network technology is productivity or production relations, whether the network economy can create value, and what is the network On the basis of our theory, this paper explains the three basic value sources of the network economy: the direct economy, the attention economy and the scale economy. Then we use the above-mentioned economic analysis of the source of the economic value of the network, firstly, according to the present stage, The classification of network enterprises, that is, network equipment provider, network operation provider, network access service provider (ISP), network content provider (ICP), and e-commerce five levels, have made the value creation respectively. Based on the traditional P/ E, the TEMA _ P/ E/ G pricing method is introduced and compared with the traditional P/ E. the analytical method of economics and the pricing model introduced above, Combined with the information on hand, a simple price analysis is carried out on the most famous e-commerce enterprise _ Amazon bookshop in the world. The paper is divided into five chapters. The main content and point of view of the chapters is as follows: Chapter one is the introduction, the first part mainly through a large number of facts and the display of the data, indicating the network The economy has come and becomes the inner driving factor to drive the emerging economy of the 21st century, so as to lead out the thesis's argument: the exploration and construction of the source of network economic value. The second part mainly introduces some research points on the network economy in the recent domestic economic circle, and the third part mainly introduces the subject, the method and the structure of the paper. The second chapter is mainly on the network The economic value source is the theoretical analysis on the basis of economics, Before the analysis of the value source of the network economy, the author first made a definition of several problems: not only is the network only a tool, the network technology is the productivity WP = 4 and the production relations? The network economy Can you create value to and what is the new concept of wealth in the network age. After defining the above problems, we will serve as the premise of our theory and in the second part the source of network economic value In the economic analysis of spring, the three basic value sources of the network economy are put forward: one, the direct economy, that is, the direct nature of the network economy It's more economical than the industrial economy The production and marketing system, which saves a large amount of resource consumption and transaction cost, is converted into a great source of value, and the attention is economy. zero-to-zero boundary cost The measurement of its value must focus on the standard of attention. It is the essence of the attention economy. With the gradual development of the Internet as the basic information platform of the information society, it will gain full control of attention resources, and it also means great value, the transfer of wealth............................................................................................................................ Ji. The text of the article The network economy is a typical scale-reward-increasing economy, which has two meanings: "The value of the Internet is equ"
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2000
【分類號】：F062.5
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條
1 伍可炳;高新技術(shù)公司價值評估[D];東北財經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年
2 李忠盛;我國高新技術(shù)企業(yè)價值評估研究[D];燕山大學(xué);2012年
3 宋勝梅;電子商務(wù)企業(yè)風(fēng)險投資價值研究[D];山西財經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年
本文編號：2485467
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