【摘要】： 預測就是在研究歷史和現(xiàn)狀的基礎上，根據(jù)事物的客觀規(guī)律對其未來的發(fā)展變化做出科學的推測。經(jīng)濟預測是在商品生產(chǎn)和商品交換的過程中產(chǎn)生的，是應國家制定經(jīng)濟政策和工商企業(yè)進行經(jīng)營管理決策的之需而發(fā)展起來的。由于經(jīng)濟預測誤差的出現(xiàn)存在必然性，所以預測檢驗問題是經(jīng)濟預測這一過程眾多環(huán)節(jié)中的最后一個必要的環(huán)節(jié)。它作為一個信息傳導的橋梁，不斷地根據(jù)現(xiàn)有模型所能得出的結(jié)果提煉出修正模型的必要信息，并反饋給現(xiàn)有模型，從而提高模型的預測精度。關(guān)于預測準確性檢驗可以劃分為兩種方法，一種是依靠模型(model-based)的方法，另一種是脫離模型(model-free)的方法。隨著社會主義市場經(jīng)濟改革的深入發(fā)展，我國對經(jīng)濟預測的重視程度也越來越高。從1992年開始，每年出版的《經(jīng)濟藍皮書》都對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟走勢進行預測分析。本文則選取1992至2000年間《藍皮書》中各單位的研究論文作為研究對象，，對其所預測的國民經(jīng)濟的各項主要經(jīng)濟指標進行分析，總結(jié)九年來經(jīng)濟預測的經(jīng)驗，探索經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中的內(nèi)在規(guī)律。
[Abstract]:Based on the study of history and present situation, prediction is to make scientific speculation on the future development and change of things according to their objective laws. Economic forecast is produced in the process of commodity production and commodity exchange. It is developed in response to the needs of the government to formulate economic policies and the business enterprises to make management decisions. Because of the inevitability of economic prediction error, the problem of forecasting test is the last necessary link in the process of economic prediction. As a bridge of information transmission, it continuously extracts the necessary information of the modified model according to the results obtained by the existing model, and feeds back to the existing model, thus improving the prediction accuracy of the model. The prediction accuracy test can be divided into two methods, one is based on model (model-based) method, the other is the method of breaking away from model (model-free). With the development of socialist market economy reform, our country pays more and more attention to economic forecast. Since 1992, China's macroeconomic trend has been forecasted and analyzed in the Blue Book of economy published every year. This paper selects the research papers of each unit in the Blue Book from 1992 to 2000 as the research object, analyzes the main economic indicators of the national economy predicted by the Blue Book, and sums up the experience of economic forecast in the past nine years. Explore the internal laws of the economic system.
【學位授予單位】：中國社會科學院研究生院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2002
【分類號】：F015

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