本文選題：經(jīng)濟增長 + 高新技術經(jīng)濟��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2003年博士論文

【摘要】： Ⅰ 二十世紀的最后一個十年里，美國經(jīng)濟的強勁增長令人側目，但它給人的疑惑、需要解決的問題以及給我們的啟示依然有待去探索。 當今世界經(jīng)濟正處于一場大變革大轉換的關鍵階段，這場首先由信息技術發(fā)gR的經(jīng)濟變革的確使得經(jīng)濟活動展現(xiàn)出了許多與以前迥異的現(xiàn)象，為此各方分歧不少，認清這些現(xiàn)象以及現(xiàn)象背后的真正原因意義重大。因此，本文寫作的目的在于，將現(xiàn)實的技術進步與歷史的經(jīng)濟增長結合起來，對現(xiàn)實中的高新技術發(fā)展置于經(jīng)濟增長的歷史性宏偉大背景下進行考察，通過對經(jīng)濟增長的歷史及其理論的概述性回顧，在梳理關于技術、制度以及資本在經(jīng)濟增長中各自的作用發(fā)揮以及重新認識三者之間相互作用的復雜耦合關系基礎上，對當今高新技術經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的基本機制及其對經(jīng)濟增長的重大影響做出較全面的分析，進而對我國經(jīng)濟的跨越式發(fā)展進行深入的思考。 Ⅱ 本文寫作的主旨在于，探詢高新技術經(jīng)濟在當今加速變革的社會中是如何產(chǎn)生、怎樣變動以及怎樣調整的，特別是高新技術經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)律對我國跨越式發(fā)展的啟示。因此，圍繞著所要解決的主要問題，框架結構與內(nèi)容安排如下： 第一部分主要論述整個文章的研究背景和選題原因，特別是對本文的研究方法——系統(tǒng)科學和演化經(jīng)濟學進行了的論述，考察了系統(tǒng)科學以及演化經(jīng)濟學的主要內(nèi)容以及在進行經(jīng)濟增長分析過程中具有的特殊價值，同時也對整篇文章的框架結構和主要內(nèi)容進行介紹。 第二部分主要是對經(jīng)濟增長理論進行三類劃分，即資本決定論、技術決定論以及制度決定論，并對這三類增長理論的主要內(nèi)容進行介紹同時作出簡單的評價，指出無論是資本決定論還是技術決定論以及制度決定論，他們的共同缺陷都在于對技術、制度以及資本進行了分 WP=3 割性理解，片面強調和過分夸大了某一種要素在經(jīng)濟增長中的作用，沒有徹底分清長短期里實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長的基本條件以及主導因素，沒有認識到經(jīng)濟增長是一個要素耦合和系統(tǒng)演化過程。在對三類經(jīng)濟增長理論進行分析的基礎上，運用系統(tǒng)科學和演化經(jīng)濟學的分析方法，對技術、制度以及資本三者之間的耦合機制進行研究，進而對經(jīng)濟增長進行數(shù)理分析，描繪了經(jīng)濟增長的邏輯斯蒂曲線，建立了經(jīng)濟增長的系統(tǒng)動力學模型，并對技術、制度以及資本的關系進行了討論�？偨Y出，它們雖然有著自身不同和獨特的作用和影響，但在經(jīng)濟增長中的作用發(fā)揮卻不是獨立的，而是相互促進、彼此制約和系統(tǒng)整合的。經(jīng)濟增長的實現(xiàn)、實現(xiàn)的極限以及如何實現(xiàn)既取決于三者本身的質量水平的高低，更取決于三者耦合水平的高低。 第三部分主要對高新技術經(jīng)濟的生成進行分析。作者對高新技術經(jīng)濟與傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟的區(qū)別及其劃分標準進行了討論。研究了高新技術經(jīng)濟生成的內(nèi)在邏輯在于，技術創(chuàng)新、制度創(chuàng)新以及投資變化的互相配合和協(xié)調，并以美國經(jīng)濟在90年代的發(fā)展為例進行說明。文章著重強調和分析了信息技術及其產(chǎn)品獨特性在促進高新技術經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生中的特殊和關鍵性作用，建立了經(jīng)濟的信息化對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻模型，分析了信息化對美國經(jīng)濟增長以及生產(chǎn)率所產(chǎn)生的影響。 第四部分主要是對高新技術經(jīng)濟的波動進行分析。此部分首先從理論上分析了造成高新技術經(jīng)濟波動的原因在于，技術沖擊、制度周期以及投資擾動三方面共同作用的結果。其中對技術沖擊的分析主要以真實經(jīng)濟周期理論為分析工具，考察了技術沖擊對技術、資本和勞動變化路徑以及產(chǎn)量和消費變化路徑的影響，并專門分析和描繪了具有持久性分量的技術沖擊下的產(chǎn)量軌跡；對制度周期的分析中，將制度變遷的周期性特征與經(jīng)濟周期的對應階段結合起來考察。根據(jù)美國“新經(jīng)濟”的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗以及依據(jù)前面所做的理論準備，對高新技術經(jīng)濟的波動特征進行了理論概括和前瞻性預見，進而指出高新技術經(jīng)濟發(fā)展依然存在著無法避免的“脆弱性”。 第五部分對高新技術經(jīng)濟的調整進行分析。該部分明確指出高新技術經(jīng)濟本身無法避免波動，，進行經(jīng)濟調整是其發(fā)展過程中的一個必 WP=4 要和不可或缺的環(huán)節(jié)，分析了當前進入衰退期的美國是如何進行經(jīng)濟調整以及使用貨幣和財政手段所產(chǎn)生的實際效果和政策效應，也明確指出了發(fā)展高新技術經(jīng)濟中反對“技術拜物教”的重要性和原因，以及由此而引發(fā)的對高新技術經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的可持續(xù)性的思考。 第六部分將前面高新技術經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的理論研究與我國的實際國情結合起來，著重分析我國跨越式發(fā)展的理論基礎和現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。首先對我國實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展的內(nèi)在需要和可能性進行闡述，接著對實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展需要的條件和存在的困難進行分析，強調指出，從現(xiàn)實來看，需求不足和通貨緊縮是對發(fā)展高新技術經(jīng)濟的最大制約。同時對理論界提出實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟跨越式發(fā)展的各種思路和途徑進行了厘清，最后對如何實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展——選擇跨越點、工業(yè)化與信息化的關系以及避免高新技術產(chǎn)業(yè)的“孤軍突出”提出了政策建議。 Ⅲ 本文在研究過程中力圖將基礎理論與經(jīng)驗事實結合起來，使對高新技術經(jīng)濟的分析以及得到的相關結論既能找到合乎邏輯的理論根據(jù)，又能找到合乎客觀事實的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)。總的說來，作者力圖在以下幾方面實現(xiàn)突破或者創(chuàng)新： 1、在研究方法上，彌補了長期以來，增長理論中
[Abstract]:I
In the last ten years of twentieth Century, the strong growth of the United States economy is impressive, but its doubts, problems to be solved and the inspiration to us still need to be explored.
The world economy is at the key stage of great transformation and transformation. The economic change issued by gR, which is first made by information technology, has indeed shown many disparate phenomena in economic activities. Therefore, there are many differences between the parties and the true reasons behind the phenomena. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to write. It is to combine the actual technological progress with the economic growth of history, examine the historical macro and great background of the high and new technology development in the reality, and review the history of economic growth and its theory, and to comb the respective roles of technology, system and capital in economic growth. On the basis of the complex coupling relationship of the interaction between the three, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the basic mechanism of the current high-tech economic development and its significant impact on economic growth, and further ponder over the leap forward development of our country's economy.
II
The main purpose of this paper is to inquire about how high and new technology economy produces, how and how to adjust in today's accelerated society, especially the Enlightenment of the law of high and new technology economic development to China's leapfrog development. Therefore, the framework and content are arranged as follows:
The first part mainly discusses the background of the whole article and the reasons for the topic, especially the research methods of this paper, system science and evolutionary economics, the main contents of system science and evolutionary economics, the special value in the process of economic growth analysis, and the whole article. The framework and main contents of the chapter are introduced.
The second part is mainly to divide the economic growth theory into three categories, namely, capital determinism, technology determinism and system determinism, and introduce the main contents of the three types of growth theory and make a simple evaluation. It is pointed out that both the capital determinism, technology determinism and system determinism are all their common defects. The division of technology, system, and capital
WP=3
Cutting nature, one-sided emphasis and excessive exaggeration of the role of a certain element in economic growth, not completely clear the basic conditions and leading factors to achieve economic growth in a long and short term, and do not realize that economic growth is a factor coupling and a system evolution process. On the basis of the analysis of the three economic growth theory, it is applied to the theory of economic growth. The analytical method of system science and evolutionary economics is used to study the coupling mechanism between the technology, the system and the three capital. Then the economic growth is analyzed by mathematical analysis, the logical Christian curve of economic growth is described, the system dynamics model of economic growth is established, and the relationship between technology, system and capital is discussed. It is concluded that, although they have their own different and unique effects and effects, they are not independent in the role of economic growth, but are mutually promoting, restricting and integrating. The realization of economic growth, the limit of realization and how to achieve it depend on the level of the quality of the three parties themselves, but also on the coupling of the three. The level of the level.
The third part mainly analyzes the generation of high and new technology economy. The author discusses the difference between high and new technology economy and the traditional economy. The internal logic of the generation of high-tech economy lies in the cooperation and coordination of technology innovation, system innovation and investment change, and the American economy in 90s. The article emphasizes and analyzes the special and critical role of information technology and its product uniqueness in promoting the production of high and new technology economy, establishes the contribution model of economic information to economic growth, and analyzes the impact of information on the growth of the economy and productivity of the United States.
The fourth part is mainly to analyze the fluctuation of high and new technology economy. This part first analyzes the causes of the high and new technology economic fluctuations in theory, the results of the three aspects of the impact of technology impact, system cycle and investment disturbance. The effects of technology impact on technology, capital and labor change path and the path of production and consumption change are investigated. The output trajectory of technology impact with persistent components is analyzed and depicted, and the periodic characteristics of institutional change are combined with the corresponding stages of the economic cycle in the analysis of the system cycle. According to the development experience of the "new economy" in the United States and the theoretical preparation in front of the new economy, the characteristics of the high and new technology economy are summarized and foreseeable, and then it is pointed out that there is still an unavoidable "fragility" in the development of high-tech economy.
The fifth part analyses the adjustment of the high and new technology economy. This part clearly points out that the high and new technology economy itself can not avoid the fluctuation, and the economic adjustment is a must in the process of its development.
WP=4
In terms of the necessary and indispensable links, this paper analyzes the actual effects and policy effects on economic adjustment and the use of monetary and financial means in the United States entering into recession, and clearly points out the importance and reasons for the development of high-tech economy against "technical fetishism", and the resulting high-tech technology. The sustainability of the economic development of the operation.
The sixth part combines the theoretical research of high and new technology economic development with the actual conditions of our country, analyzes the theoretical basis and realistic basis of our country's leapfrog development. First, it expounds the inherent needs and possibilities of our country's realization of leapfrog development, and then the conditions and difficulties of realizing the need of leaping development. It is difficult to analyze and point out that, from the perspective of reality, lack of demand and deflation are the greatest constraints to the development of high and new technology economy. At the same time, the theoretical circles put forward various ideas and ways to realize the leap forward development of the economy. Finally, how to achieve leapfrog development - the relationship between the choice of leaping points and the relationship between industrialization and information technology And put forward policy recommendations to avoid the "isolated military outburst" of high-tech industries.
III
In the course of the study, this paper tries to combine the basic theory with the experience facts, so that the analysis of the high-tech economy and the related conclusions can not only find the logical theoretical basis, but also find the empirical evidence that conforms to the objective facts. In general, the author tries to achieve breakthroughs or innovations in the following aspects:
1, in research methods, it has made up for a long time the theory of growth.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2003
【分類號】：F062.4

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