本文選題：理性預(yù)期 + 穩(wěn)定政策�。� 參考：《廈門大學(xué)》2001年碩士論文

【摘要】： 預(yù)期是經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的基本行為方式，對(duì)預(yù)期理論的研究有助于認(rèn)識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的行為規(guī)律．隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展，特別是信息、知識(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越來越大的時(shí)代的到來，對(duì)預(yù)期理論的研究更顯重要．預(yù)期理論發(fā)展到理性預(yù)期，是一個(gè)重大飛躍，使經(jīng)濟(jì)分析方法突破了以往的限制． 現(xiàn)代信息社會(huì)的發(fā)展，人們的預(yù)期越來越趨向于理性．本論文研究的中心是分析中國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況，討論人們的理性預(yù)期在逐步走向完善的過程中，經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的特點(diǎn)，及中國的政策取向． 第一章：介紹預(yù)期理論的發(fā)展進(jìn)程，對(duì)比分析了理性預(yù)期與其它預(yù)期理論不同的信息基礎(chǔ)及形成機(jī)制，并介紹了理性預(yù)期理論的近期發(fā)展． 第二章：根據(jù)理性預(yù)期的統(tǒng)計(jì)性質(zhì)，建立中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量模型，根據(jù)實(shí)際統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)模型參數(shù)，通過對(duì)模型的分析，表明中國經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)了一定的理性特征，政府制定經(jīng)濟(jì)政策時(shí)，應(yīng)考慮到公眾的理性預(yù)期． 第三章：討論理性預(yù)期與政策的關(guān)系．首先介紹一個(gè)含理性預(yù)期的經(jīng)典模型，，其結(jié)論是政府穩(wěn)定政策無效．考慮到中國當(dāng)前實(shí)際不滿足其假定條件，對(duì)模型進(jìn)行修改，得出在特定情況下政府政策的有效性．再針對(duì)政府制定政策時(shí)傾向于時(shí)間不一致性，定性分析在理性預(yù)期存在的條件下，政府的政策結(jié)果，得出政府應(yīng)推行穩(wěn)定的政策，以穩(wěn)定公眾預(yù)期，達(dá)到政策目標(biāo)的結(jié)論． 第四章：基于理性預(yù)期的特性，引入納什均衡問題，建立在受到隨機(jī)沖擊時(shí)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)二人非合作對(duì)策模型，通過模型變換，并根據(jù)相關(guān)定理，得出模型的魯棒控制狀態(tài)反饋策略，進(jìn)一步對(duì)模型進(jìn)行仿真計(jì)算，結(jié)果說明采取穩(wěn)定政策是正確的． 第五章：具體分析中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況，闡述為啟動(dòng)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)，制定政策時(shí)應(yīng)注意的方方面面．
[Abstract]:Is the basic way of expected behavior of economic subject, study on the behavior of the expectations theory is helpful to understand the economic subject. With the development of economy and society, especially in the information era of knowledge, a greater influence on the economy's arrival, research on the expectation theory is more and more important. The expected development of the theory of rational expectations, is a major leap forward, the economic analysis method breaks through the restrictions.
With the development of modern information society, people's expectations tend to be more rational. The core of this paper is to analyze the reality of China, and discuss the characteristics of economic models and China's policy orientation in the process of gradual improvement of people's rational expectations.
The first chapter introduces the development process of expectation theory, compares and analyzes the information basis and formation mechanism of rational expectation and other expectation theories, and introduces the recent development of rational expectation theory.
The second chapter: according to the statistical properties of rational expectation, establish Chinese macro econometric model, according to the actual statistical data to estimate the model parameters, through the analysis of the model shows that Chinese presents some characteristics of economic rationality, the government economic policy, consideration should be given to the rational expectations of the public.
The third chapter: discuss the relationship between rational expectations and policy. Firstly, a classical model with rational expectations, the conclusion is the stability of the government policy is invalid. Considering the actual conditions that do not meet the current Chinese, modify the model, draw in the effectiveness of government policies under specific conditions. For the formulation of government policy tendency from the time inconsistency, qualitative analysis of rational expectations in the presence of government policy results, that the government should implement a stable policy, to stabilize the public expectations, to achieve policy objectives.
The fourth chapter: the characteristics of rational expectations based on the introduction of the Nash equilibrium of macro economy, build under the impact of two random non cooperative game model, through the model transformation, and according to the related theorem, robust state feedback control strategy of the model, the model for simulation. The results proved the stability of the policy is correct.
The fifth chapter: a specific analysis of the economic situation in China, and the various aspects that should be paid attention to to start the Chinese economy and formulate policies.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2001
【分類號(hào)】：F015

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 姚娜;;強(qiáng)加的自負(fù)——小評(píng)理性預(yù)期學(xué)派及一個(gè)例子[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)信息;2012年24期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 王嘯彤;一類非線性理性預(yù)期模型的預(yù)期資產(chǎn)研究[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

2 楊錦;企業(yè)家預(yù)期與企業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系研究[D];華南理工大學(xué);2012年

3 李文濤;股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)中的投資者預(yù)期變化研究[D];南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2012年

4 張鈺;有限理性預(yù)期下財(cái)政政策就業(yè)效應(yīng)分析[D];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2013年

本文編號(hào)：1762979