本文關(guān)鍵詞： 自然利率 魏克塞爾 凱恩斯 VAR 貨幣政策　出處：《新疆大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著金融體系與電子科技的發(fā)展,貨幣供給量越來越難以控制,因此在90年代很多國家便放棄了貨幣供給這一政策目標(biāo),轉(zhuǎn)而以通貨膨脹率、利率或者產(chǎn)出水平作為貨幣政策目標(biāo),而央行此類貨幣政策目標(biāo)的制定與實(shí)現(xiàn)都離不開一個(gè)重要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的估值——自然利率,于是自然利率理論沉寂一百多年后再度走進(jìn)了人們的視野。自然利率理論首先由瑞典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家魏克塞爾所提出,著名的魏克塞爾累積過程便是這一理論的重要組成部分。它的主要內(nèi)容是在一個(gè)社會中,利率當(dāng)然產(chǎn)生于貨幣借貸,但這種利率并不一定是使儲蓄與投資達(dá)到均衡因而價(jià)格水平實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的利率,由于貨幣流通速度不穩(wěn)定與現(xiàn)代銀行信用體系的發(fā)展,貨幣利率往往可以維持在高于均衡利率或低于均衡利率的狀態(tài)很長時(shí)間,如果貨幣利率過高,就會產(chǎn)生向下的魏克塞爾累積過程,價(jià)格水平不斷下降,反之則產(chǎn)生向上的累積過程,價(jià)格水平不斷上升。而上述的均衡利率,魏克塞爾指出就是用實(shí)物進(jìn)行借貸時(shí)產(chǎn)生的利率,也就是“自然利率”。魏克塞爾的理論問世后直接推動(dòng)了瑞典學(xué)派的形成,他的理論也被他的弟子林達(dá)爾、繆爾達(dá)爾不斷完善發(fā)展而變得更加成熟。而更為重要的是,自然利率理論標(biāo)志著西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)由微觀走向宏觀,自由發(fā)展走向宏觀干預(yù)的方向轉(zhuǎn)變,貨幣的古典二分法就此被打破,它的出現(xiàn)對于凱恩斯主義的誕生有著深刻而明顯的啟示作用,凱恩斯本人的學(xué)說乃至�？怂沟热撕髞韺ζ涞陌l(fā)展都與魏克塞爾自然利率理論有著極深的理論淵源。在指出繆爾達(dá)爾與林達(dá)爾對自然利率學(xué)說的修改完善部分與揭示凱恩斯理論的內(nèi)核正是自然利率學(xué)說后,文章最后一部分應(yīng)用SVAR模型對中國2007-2014年間的自然利率做出定量估計(jì),并用自然利率理論解釋了這一時(shí)期中國的物價(jià)波動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)得以實(shí)現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)增長的原因。我國目前對于自然利率的理論與定量研究還比較缺乏,但如果我國央行也跟上國際形勢改變貨幣政策目標(biāo)的話,則必然不能回避自然利率的相關(guān)問題。
[Abstract]:With the development of the financial system and electronic technology, the amount of money supply is becoming more and more difficult to control, so in 90s, many countries abandoned the policy objective of money supply, and instead used the rate of inflation. Interest rate or output level is the target of monetary policy, and the establishment and realization of central bank's monetary policy goal can not be achieved without the valuation of an important economic variable-natural interest rate. So, after more than 100 years of silence, the natural interest rate theory once again came into people's view. The natural interest rate theory was first put forward by Swedish economist Wilkser. The famous Wickell accumulation process is an important part of this theory. Its main content is that, in a society, interest rates of course arise out of money borrowing. But this kind of interest rate is not necessarily the one that makes savings and investment balanced and thus price level stable. Because of the unstable speed of money circulation and the development of the credit system of modern banks, Monetary interest rates can often be maintained above or below the equilibrium rate for a long time. If the monetary interest rate is too high, there will be a downward Wicksell accumulation process and the price level will continue to decline. On the contrary, there will be an upward cumulative process, and the price level will continue to rise. And the equilibrium interest rate mentioned above, Waikser points out, is the interest rate generated when borrowing in kind. That is, "natural interest rate." Wicksell's theory directly promoted the formation of the Swedish school. His theory was also matured by his disciples Lindal and Muirdar. More importantly, The theory of natural interest rate marks the change of western economics from micro to macro and free development to macro intervention, and the classical dichotomy of money is broken. Its emergence has a profound and obvious enlightenment to the birth of Keynesianism. Keynes' own theory and Hicks' later development have a deep theoretical origin with Weissell's theory of natural interest rate. The author points out that Murdal and Lindal's theory of natural interest rate is modified and perfected. After revealing the core of Keynes's theory of natural interest rates, In the last part of the paper, we use SVAR model to estimate the natural interest rate in China from 2007 to 2014. The reason of price fluctuation and steady economic growth in China during this period is explained by the theory of natural interest rate. At present, the theoretical and quantitative research on natural interest rate in China is still lacking. But if the central bank also keeps pace with the international situation and changes the monetary policy objectives, it will inevitably have to avoid the related problems of natural interest rates.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F091.3

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1527444