【摘要】：實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長是每一個國家的發(fā)展目標(biāo)之一,許多環(huán)境和能源經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域的專家非常熱衷于研究能源消費和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系,因此兩者之間的關(guān)系研究也是一個國家確定發(fā)展方向和制定政策方針的重要依據(jù)。就本文的研究背景而言,一方面,白俄羅斯是一個能源進口型國家,所以其發(fā)展必然會受到能源供應(yīng)國的制約;另一方面,白俄羅斯國內(nèi)市場十分有限,其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的對外依存度很高。隨著白俄羅斯的兩大能源供應(yīng)國烏克蘭、俄羅斯先后宣布停止向白俄羅斯輸出天然氣能源,這使得白俄羅斯不得不提升自身的能源自給能力。而且據(jù)世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年白俄羅斯經(jīng)濟首次出現(xiàn)負增長,失業(yè)進一步加劇。由于能源是一個國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,特別是工業(yè)發(fā)展的重要支撐,所以在此框架和背景下研究能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系對于保障白俄羅斯的能源安全和經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)高速發(fā)展以及制定相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟政策和能源政策具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文主要選取白俄羅斯1992年-2011年的能源消費和經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù),并運用協(xié)整理論、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗和誤差修正模型等計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)方法,實證研究了白俄羅斯能源消費和經(jīng)濟增長之間的協(xié)整和因果關(guān)系。實證研究結(jié)果表明,盡管白俄羅斯能源消費與GDP之間存在著短期波動關(guān)系,但是從長期來看,兩者之間存在著穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,并且存在著雙向的因果關(guān)系,但是能源消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響更加顯著,即能源消費在經(jīng)濟增長中仍有較大的貢獻作用。因此在能源供給不足的國情下,進一步優(yōu)化節(jié)能政策,調(diào)整和優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu),以及加快引進國外投資和先進的再生能源開發(fā)技術(shù)對白俄羅斯顯得十分重要。隨著國際能源的枯竭和國際氣候大會的召開,對可再生能源的勘探和利用已經(jīng)逐漸成為大多數(shù)國家的共識,并逐漸形成一定的能源交易市場。對于本國而言,可再生能源的研發(fā)和利用屬于白俄羅斯共和國節(jié)能、提升能源效率和保障能源安全領(lǐng)域重要的議題,是環(huán)境保護和防止氣候變化的國家政策的重要組成部分。將可再生能源引入國家燃料能源差額系統(tǒng)的工作得到了白俄羅斯各級政府、組織和企業(yè)的大力支持。本文第四部分對白俄羅斯可再生能源開發(fā)利用的前景和政策優(yōu)勢進行探討和綜述,本文對于能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的研究對改善白俄羅斯的國際能源地位具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。文章最后一部分基于實證分析的結(jié)果,并對白俄羅斯在能源發(fā)展方面給出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Achieving economic growth is one of the development goals of every country. Many experts in the field of environment and energy economics are very keen to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, so the study of the relationship between the two is also an important basis for a country to determine the direction of development and formulate policy guidelines. As far as the research background of this paper is concerned, on the one hand, Belarus is an energy importing country, so its development is bound to be restricted by energy suppliers; on the other hand, the domestic market of Belarus is very limited, and its economic development is highly dependent on foreign countries. With Ukraine, two of Belarus's biggest energy suppliers, Russia has announced that it will stop exporting natural gas to Belarus, forcing Belarus to boost its energy self-sufficiency. And according to World Bank data, Belarus's economy experienced negative growth for the first time in 2015, and unemployment intensified. Because energy is an important support for a country's economic development, especially industrial development, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in this framework and background for ensuring energy security and sustained and rapid economic development in Belarus, as well as formulating related economic policies and energy policies. This paper mainly selects the energy consumption and economic growth data of Belarus from 1992 to 2011, and empirically studies the co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Belarus by using econometric methods such as cointegration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model. The empirical results show that although there is a short-term fluctuation relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Belarus, but in the long run, there is a stable equilibrium relationship between the two, and there is a two-way causality, but the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is more significant, that is, energy consumption still plays a greater role in economic growth. Therefore, under the condition of insufficient energy supply, it is very important for Belarus to further optimize the energy saving policy, adjust and optimize the energy structure, and speed up the introduction of foreign investment and advanced renewable energy development technology. With the depletion of international energy and the convening of international climate conference, the exploration and utilization of renewable energy has gradually become the consensus of most countries, and gradually formed a certain energy trading market. For our country, the research and development and utilization of renewable energy is an important issue in the field of energy conservation, energy efficiency and energy security in the Republic of Belarus, and is an important part of the national policy of environmental protection and prevention of climate change. The introduction of renewable energy into the national fuel energy balance system has been strongly supported by Belarusian governments, organizations and enterprises at all levels. In the fourth part of this paper, the prospect and policy advantages of renewable energy development and utilization in Belarus are discussed and reviewed. the study of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is of great practical significance to improve the international energy status of Belarus. The last part of the article is based on the results of empirical analysis, and gives relevant policy recommendations on energy development in Belarus.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F151.2;F451.2

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