【摘要】：實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是每一個(gè)國(guó)家的發(fā)展目標(biāo)之一,許多環(huán)境和能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域的專家非常熱衷于研究能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,因此兩者之間的關(guān)系研究也是一個(gè)國(guó)家確定發(fā)展方向和制定政策方針的重要依據(jù)。就本文的研究背景而言,一方面,白俄羅斯是一個(gè)能源進(jìn)口型國(guó)家,所以其發(fā)展必然會(huì)受到能源供應(yīng)國(guó)的制約;另一方面,白俄羅斯國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)十分有限,其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的對(duì)外依存度很高。隨著白俄羅斯的兩大能源供應(yīng)國(guó)烏克蘭、俄羅斯先后宣布停止向白俄羅斯輸出天然氣能源,這使得白俄羅斯不得不提升自身的能源自給能力。而且據(jù)世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年白俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)首次出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng),失業(yè)進(jìn)一步加劇。由于能源是一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,特別是工業(yè)發(fā)展的重要支撐,所以在此框架和背景下研究能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系對(duì)于保障白俄羅斯的能源安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)高速發(fā)展以及制定相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和能源政策具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文主要選取白俄羅斯1992年-2011年的能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù),并運(yùn)用協(xié)整理論、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和誤差修正模型等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,實(shí)證研究了白俄羅斯能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的協(xié)整和因果關(guān)系。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明,盡管白俄羅斯能源消費(fèi)與GDP之間存在著短期波動(dòng)關(guān)系,但是從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,兩者之間存在著穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,并且存在著雙向的因果關(guān)系,但是能源消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響更加顯著,即能源消費(fèi)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中仍有較大的貢獻(xiàn)作用。因此在能源供給不足的國(guó)情下,進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化節(jié)能政策,調(diào)整和優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu),以及加快引進(jìn)國(guó)外投資和先進(jìn)的再生能源開發(fā)技術(shù)對(duì)白俄羅斯顯得十分重要。隨著國(guó)際能源的枯竭和國(guó)際氣候大會(huì)的召開,對(duì)可再生能源的勘探和利用已經(jīng)逐漸成為大多數(shù)國(guó)家的共識(shí),并逐漸形成一定的能源交易市場(chǎng)。對(duì)于本國(guó)而言,可再生能源的研發(fā)和利用屬于白俄羅斯共和國(guó)節(jié)能、提升能源效率和保障能源安全領(lǐng)域重要的議題,是環(huán)境保護(hù)和防止氣候變化的國(guó)家政策的重要組成部分。將可再生能源引入國(guó)家燃料能源差額系統(tǒng)的工作得到了白俄羅斯各級(jí)政府、組織和企業(yè)的大力支持。本文第四部分對(duì)白俄羅斯可再生能源開發(fā)利用的前景和政策優(yōu)勢(shì)進(jìn)行探討和綜述,本文對(duì)于能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的研究對(duì)改善白俄羅斯的國(guó)際能源地位具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。文章最后一部分基于實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,并對(duì)白俄羅斯在能源發(fā)展方面給出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Achieving economic growth is one of the development goals of every country. Many experts in the field of environment and energy economics are very keen to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, so the study of the relationship between the two is also an important basis for a country to determine the direction of development and formulate policy guidelines. As far as the research background of this paper is concerned, on the one hand, Belarus is an energy importing country, so its development is bound to be restricted by energy suppliers; on the other hand, the domestic market of Belarus is very limited, and its economic development is highly dependent on foreign countries. With Ukraine, two of Belarus's biggest energy suppliers, Russia has announced that it will stop exporting natural gas to Belarus, forcing Belarus to boost its energy self-sufficiency. And according to World Bank data, Belarus's economy experienced negative growth for the first time in 2015, and unemployment intensified. Because energy is an important support for a country's economic development, especially industrial development, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in this framework and background for ensuring energy security and sustained and rapid economic development in Belarus, as well as formulating related economic policies and energy policies. This paper mainly selects the energy consumption and economic growth data of Belarus from 1992 to 2011, and empirically studies the co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Belarus by using econometric methods such as cointegration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model. The empirical results show that although there is a short-term fluctuation relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Belarus, but in the long run, there is a stable equilibrium relationship between the two, and there is a two-way causality, but the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is more significant, that is, energy consumption still plays a greater role in economic growth. Therefore, under the condition of insufficient energy supply, it is very important for Belarus to further optimize the energy saving policy, adjust and optimize the energy structure, and speed up the introduction of foreign investment and advanced renewable energy development technology. With the depletion of international energy and the convening of international climate conference, the exploration and utilization of renewable energy has gradually become the consensus of most countries, and gradually formed a certain energy trading market. For our country, the research and development and utilization of renewable energy is an important issue in the field of energy conservation, energy efficiency and energy security in the Republic of Belarus, and is an important part of the national policy of environmental protection and prevention of climate change. The introduction of renewable energy into the national fuel energy balance system has been strongly supported by Belarusian governments, organizations and enterprises at all levels. In the fourth part of this paper, the prospect and policy advantages of renewable energy development and utilization in Belarus are discussed and reviewed. the study of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is of great practical significance to improve the international energy status of Belarus. The last part of the article is based on the results of empirical analysis, and gives relevant policy recommendations on energy development in Belarus.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F151.2;F451.2

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