基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的中水回用技術(shù)全壽命周期成本效益研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-07 14:38
【摘要】：“十三五”規(guī)劃綱要提出:全面推進(jìn)節(jié)水型社會(huì)建設(shè)。中水回用是建設(shè)節(jié)水型社會(huì)的重要舉措,它已成為開(kāi)源節(jié)流、減輕水體污染、改善生態(tài)環(huán)境、緩解水資源供需矛盾和促進(jìn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要途徑。但是目前全國(guó)推廣范圍不夠廣泛,基于有些人認(rèn)為中水回用技術(shù)效益不明顯的觀點(diǎn),本文運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的相關(guān)理論和借助Vesim-PLE軟件分析工具,建立了能夠反映中水回用技術(shù)全壽命周期成本效益系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和功能的SD模型,以甘肅省某高校新校區(qū)的中水回用項(xiàng)目為例,對(duì)其全壽命周期成本效益進(jìn)行了模擬預(yù)測(cè),從而直觀地看到中水回用技術(shù)的凈收益。同時(shí),通過(guò)改變不同參數(shù)值或組合進(jìn)行了情景分析。論文主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)運(yùn)用全壽命周期理論,將中水回用技術(shù)的全壽命周期劃分為四個(gè)階段,對(duì)其成本、效益構(gòu)成進(jìn)行了分解并構(gòu)建了其量化的數(shù)學(xué)模型。(2)從確定中水回用技術(shù)全壽命周期成本效益系統(tǒng)的研究目的和邊界入手,將系統(tǒng)分為全壽命周期成本和全壽命周期效益兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng),在結(jié)構(gòu)分析的基礎(chǔ)上建立了整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的SD模型流圖,并通過(guò)編寫(xiě)結(jié)構(gòu)方程將變量之間的關(guān)系定量化表達(dá)。(3)針對(duì)甘肅省某高校新校區(qū)中水回用項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,通過(guò)對(duì)甘肅社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)10年來(lái)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的整理、分析和計(jì)算,確定了模型中參數(shù)值。(4)通過(guò)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行,預(yù)測(cè)該項(xiàng)目全壽命周期成本效益。結(jié)果表明:從學(xué)校的角度考慮,全壽命周期動(dòng)態(tài)凈效益為1540.68萬(wàn)元,靜態(tài)凈效益為7215.37萬(wàn)元,靜態(tài)投資回收期為9年(含建設(shè)期);如果從全社會(huì)的角度考慮,全壽命周期動(dòng)態(tài)凈效益為5207.28萬(wàn)元,靜態(tài)凈效益為15806.3萬(wàn)元,分別是從學(xué)校角度考慮全壽命凈效益的3.38倍和2.19倍,可見(jiàn)中水回用技術(shù)間接經(jīng)濟(jì)效益十分顯著,中水回用技術(shù)對(duì)于社會(huì)的貢獻(xiàn)是巨大的。另外,通過(guò)模擬得到該校中水回用工程含設(shè)施投資補(bǔ)償費(fèi)的中水運(yùn)行成本為0.952元/m3,不含設(shè)施投資補(bǔ)償費(fèi)的中水運(yùn)行成本為0.525元/m3。(5)通過(guò)改變不同參數(shù)值或組合進(jìn)行了情景分析。對(duì)投融資決策四種方案的情景分析結(jié)果表明:計(jì)劃還款期比自籌資金對(duì)全壽命周期成本效益影響大,相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō),計(jì)劃還款期是敏感性因素,從而對(duì)學(xué)校投選擇方案1進(jìn)行了合理的解釋。對(duì)市政水價(jià)增長(zhǎng)率和年工資增長(zhǎng)率的不同賦值及日常不同檢修維護(hù)程度進(jìn)行情景分析,結(jié)果表明:未來(lái)水價(jià)的變化和日常檢修維護(hù)程度是影響項(xiàng)目全壽命周期凈效益的重要因素,年工資增長(zhǎng)率不是系統(tǒng)的敏感性因素。
[Abstract]:The outline of the 13th five-year Plan puts forward that we should comprehensively promote the construction of a water-saving society. Reuse of reclaimed water is an important measure to build a water-saving society. It has become an important way to open up sources and cut expenditure, reduce water pollution, improve ecological environment, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and promote sustainable social and economic development. However, at present, the scope of national promotion is not wide enough. Based on the view that some people think that the technical benefit of reclaimed water reuse is not obvious, this paper uses the relevant theory of system dynamics and Vesim-PLE software analysis tools. A SD model is established, which can reflect the structure and function of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology. taking the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province as an example, the life cycle cost-benefit of the reclaimed water reuse technology is simulated and predicted. Thus, the net income of reclaimed water reuse technology can be seen intuitively. At the same time, the situation analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the whole life cycle of reclaimed water reuse technology is divided into four stages by using the whole life cycle theory, and the cost of the whole life cycle is divided into four stages. The benefit composition is decomposed and its quantitative mathematical model is constructed. (2) starting with the research purpose and boundary of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology, The system is divided into two subsystems: life cycle cost and life cycle benefit. Based on the structural analysis, the SD model flow diagram of the whole system is established. The relationship between variables is quantitatively expressed by compiling structural equation. (3) an empirical study is carried out on the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province, and the statistical data of social and economic development and project operation in Gansu Province in the past 10 years are sorted out. The parameter values in the model are determined by analysis and calculation. (4) the cost-benefit of the whole life cycle of the project is predicted through the operation of the system. The results show that from the school point of view, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 15.4068 million yuan, the static net benefit is 72.1537 million yuan, and the static investment payback period is 9 years (including the construction period). From the point of view of the whole society, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 52.0728 million yuan, and the static net benefit is 158.063 million yuan, which is 3.38 times and 2.19 times of the net benefit of the whole life cycle considered from the school point of view, respectively. It can be seen that the indirect economic benefits of reclaimed water reuse technology are very significant, and the reclaimed water reuse technology contributes greatly to the society. In addition, through simulation, it is found that the operation cost of reclaimed water including facility investment compensation fee is 0.952 yuan / m3. The operating cost of reclaimed water without facility investment compensation is 0.525 yuan / m ~ 3. (5) the scenario analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The results of situational analysis of four kinds of investment and financing decisions show that the planned repayment period has a greater impact on the cost-effectiveness of the whole life cycle than the self-financing, and the planned repayment period is relatively sensitive. Thus, the school investment option 1 is explained reasonably. The different assignment of municipal water price growth rate and annual wage growth rate and the different maintenance degree of daily maintenance are analyzed. The results show that the change of water price and the degree of daily maintenance are the important factors that affect the net benefit of the whole life cycle of the project, and the annual wage growth rate is not the sensitive factor of the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：X703
本文編號(hào)：2494873
[Abstract]:The outline of the 13th five-year Plan puts forward that we should comprehensively promote the construction of a water-saving society. Reuse of reclaimed water is an important measure to build a water-saving society. It has become an important way to open up sources and cut expenditure, reduce water pollution, improve ecological environment, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and promote sustainable social and economic development. However, at present, the scope of national promotion is not wide enough. Based on the view that some people think that the technical benefit of reclaimed water reuse is not obvious, this paper uses the relevant theory of system dynamics and Vesim-PLE software analysis tools. A SD model is established, which can reflect the structure and function of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology. taking the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province as an example, the life cycle cost-benefit of the reclaimed water reuse technology is simulated and predicted. Thus, the net income of reclaimed water reuse technology can be seen intuitively. At the same time, the situation analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the whole life cycle of reclaimed water reuse technology is divided into four stages by using the whole life cycle theory, and the cost of the whole life cycle is divided into four stages. The benefit composition is decomposed and its quantitative mathematical model is constructed. (2) starting with the research purpose and boundary of the whole life cycle cost-benefit system of reclaimed water reuse technology, The system is divided into two subsystems: life cycle cost and life cycle benefit. Based on the structural analysis, the SD model flow diagram of the whole system is established. The relationship between variables is quantitatively expressed by compiling structural equation. (3) an empirical study is carried out on the reclaimed water reuse project in the new campus of a university in Gansu Province, and the statistical data of social and economic development and project operation in Gansu Province in the past 10 years are sorted out. The parameter values in the model are determined by analysis and calculation. (4) the cost-benefit of the whole life cycle of the project is predicted through the operation of the system. The results show that from the school point of view, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 15.4068 million yuan, the static net benefit is 72.1537 million yuan, and the static investment payback period is 9 years (including the construction period). From the point of view of the whole society, the dynamic net benefit of the whole life cycle is 52.0728 million yuan, and the static net benefit is 158.063 million yuan, which is 3.38 times and 2.19 times of the net benefit of the whole life cycle considered from the school point of view, respectively. It can be seen that the indirect economic benefits of reclaimed water reuse technology are very significant, and the reclaimed water reuse technology contributes greatly to the society. In addition, through simulation, it is found that the operation cost of reclaimed water including facility investment compensation fee is 0.952 yuan / m3. The operating cost of reclaimed water without facility investment compensation is 0.525 yuan / m ~ 3. (5) the scenario analysis is carried out by changing different parameter values or combinations. The results of situational analysis of four kinds of investment and financing decisions show that the planned repayment period has a greater impact on the cost-effectiveness of the whole life cycle than the self-financing, and the planned repayment period is relatively sensitive. Thus, the school investment option 1 is explained reasonably. The different assignment of municipal water price growth rate and annual wage growth rate and the different maintenance degree of daily maintenance are analyzed. The results show that the change of water price and the degree of daily maintenance are the important factors that affect the net benefit of the whole life cycle of the project, and the annual wage growth rate is not the sensitive factor of the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：X703
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