【摘要】：固定資本存量是宏觀經(jīng)濟管理與決策中的一個重要指標,但在過去數(shù)十年,我國統(tǒng)計基礎(chǔ)薄弱,統(tǒng)計制度完備性較低,資料缺口較大,這些現(xiàn)實條件制約了過去對固定資本存量估算方法的研究。本文在此基礎(chǔ)上首先梳理了資本核算的相關(guān)理論脈絡(luò),而后對固定資本存量核算方法層面中廣泛運用的永續(xù)盤存法(Perpetual Inventory Method)在某些基本假設(shè)中的合理性提出懷疑。主要針對固定資本幾何折舊模式的是否普遍成立提出合理懷疑并進行模擬論證。統(tǒng)計模擬結(jié)果顯示一類固定資產(chǎn)與單一固定資產(chǎn)的效率衰減曲線并不一致,資產(chǎn)總體效率曲線更為凸向原點,也即出現(xiàn)了“合成謬誤”的現(xiàn)象,由此說明一類資產(chǎn)效率衰減的幾何模式在現(xiàn)實中并不總是成立。除此之外,PIM法普遍以某種變通方式出現(xiàn)在國內(nèi)的研究中,受限于數(shù)據(jù)可得性的問題,替代、改造以及合成PIM法中關(guān)鍵變量的現(xiàn)象十分普遍,這會帶來固定資本存量原有含義的偏離、估算結(jié)果差異顯著等一系列的問題從而制約資本存量核算研究在我國的發(fā)展。在上述前提下,結(jié)合當今信息化、大數(shù)據(jù)化技術(shù)的高度發(fā)展,本文嘗試提出了利用信息化工具直接核算固定資本存量的想法,并嘗試將這種核算方法整合進入現(xiàn)行的統(tǒng)計一套表制度中。通過對其實踐性的探索分析,以一套表制度為載體的固定資本存量直接核算具備現(xiàn)實操作性,這需要對一套表調(diào)查內(nèi)容進行一定程度的擴充。
[Abstract]:Fixed capital stock is an important index in macroeconomic management and decision-making, but in the past few decades, the statistical foundation of our country is weak, the statistical system is not complete, and the data gap is large. These realistic conditions restrict the past research on the estimation method of fixed capital stock. On this basis, this paper firstly combs the relevant theoretical context of capital accounting, and then doubts the rationality of (Perpetual Inventory Method), which is widely used in the method of fixed capital stock accounting in some basic assumptions. This paper puts forward reasonable doubts about whether the geometric depreciation model of fixed capital is generally established and carries on the simulation demonstration. The statistical simulation results show that the efficiency decay curve of a class of fixed assets is not consistent with that of a single fixed asset, and the overall efficiency curve of assets is more convex to the origin, that is, the phenomenon of "composite falsehood" appears. This shows that the geometric model of asset efficiency decay is not always true in reality. In addition, PIM method generally appears in domestic research in some alternative way, limited by the problem of data availability, the phenomenon of substitution, modification and synthesis of key variables in PIM method is very common. This will lead to a series of problems such as deviation of the original meaning of fixed capital stock, significant difference in estimation results and so on, thus restricting the development of capital stock accounting research in China. Under the above premise, combined with the high development of information technology and data technology, this paper tries to put forward the idea of using information tools to calculate the fixed capital stock directly. And try to integrate this accounting method into the current statistical system of a set of tables. Through the exploration and analysis of its practicality, the direct accounting of the fixed capital stock with a set of table system as the carrier has practical maneuverability, which needs to expand the contents of a set of table investigation to a certain extent.
【學位授予單位】：廣東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F222.3

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