【摘要】：人口流動(dòng)作為在社會(huì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)雙驅(qū)動(dòng)力下,涵蓋宏觀因素與個(gè)人因素的社會(huì)現(xiàn)象,與之相聯(lián)系的社會(huì)問(wèn)題包括:戶籍制度的改革與發(fā)展、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異以及流動(dòng)人口與流入地的互動(dòng)關(guān)系等方面,是時(shí)間、空間多維度作用與反作用下的復(fù)雜問(wèn)題。吉林省,作為東北三省之一,從20世紀(jì)80年代后期,已成為人口凈遷出省,伴隨著人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的加速進(jìn)程和計(jì)劃生育水平的持續(xù)走低,吉林省人口老齡化、少子化等問(wèn)題日漸顯現(xiàn),人口流失的情況也逐年愈加凸顯。從以往的研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),人口流動(dòng)是在兩股作用力下完成的,流出地有推動(dòng)作用,流入地有容量吸納的作用。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析,吉林省人口總數(shù)自2000年到2011年,一直呈均數(shù)上漲趨勢(shì),從2011年至2014年的三年間,吉林省人口數(shù)量有所回落,是因?yàn)槿丝谡吆腿丝谀挲g結(jié)構(gòu)變化導(dǎo)致的人口數(shù)量負(fù)增長(zhǎng)情況的出現(xiàn),這個(gè)原因我們能夠在撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)變化程度以及各年齡段人口數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)那里得到證實(shí)。吉林省的流動(dòng)人口內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)以省內(nèi)遷移為主,約占總?cè)丝诘?0%,在分地區(qū)的流動(dòng)人口統(tǒng)計(jì)方面,流動(dòng)人口活躍的省內(nèi)地區(qū),有更高的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值。在對(duì)省內(nèi)各地區(qū)進(jìn)行聚類后明顯發(fā)現(xiàn),流動(dòng)人口活躍地有著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展優(yōu)勢(shì)以及地理優(yōu)勢(shì),例如長(zhǎng)春與吉林,松原與延邊州。對(duì)吉林省流動(dòng)人口預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)為430萬(wàn),依然保持著自上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)的凈遷移率負(fù),人口數(shù)量降低所伴隨的許許多多情況和問(wèn)題將作用于吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、政治政策、文化結(jié)構(gòu)屬性等方方面面。從2000年至2014年,吉林省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值有了大幅度的升高,但14年間,吉林省的三個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)率并無(wú)明顯改變,仍然是以一二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主的省份。流動(dòng)人口數(shù)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo)的相關(guān)關(guān)系十分密切,在對(duì)七項(xiàng)關(guān)乎經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行因子分析后,得到一個(gè)代表性因子,信息解釋達(dá)85%以上。通過(guò)變量間的因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),證明流動(dòng)人口變化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有作用,而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)流動(dòng)人口的反作用并不成立。
[Abstract]:Population mobility, as a social phenomenon with both social and economic driving forces, covers both macro and individual factors. The social problems associated with it include the reform and development of the household registration system. The difference of regional economy and the interaction between floating population and floating place are complex problems under the action and reaction of time and space. Jilin Province, as one of the three northeastern provinces, has been a province of net population emigration since the late 1980s. With the acceleration of the population age structure and the continuous decline in the level of family planning, the population of Jilin Province has aged. The problem of minority children is becoming more and more obvious, and the situation of population loss is becoming more prominent year by year. From the previous research results, it is found that the population flow is completed under two forces, the outflow has the function of promoting, and the inflow has the function of capacity absorption. Through empirical analysis, the total population of Jilin Province has been increasing in average from 2000 to 2011. From 2011 to 2014, the population of Jilin Province has declined somewhat. This is because of the negative growth in population as a result of changes in population policy and age structure, which we can confirm in terms of the degree of change in the dependency coefficient and the size of the population of all ages. The internal structure of floating population in Jilin Province is mainly internal migration, accounting for about 70% of the total population. In the statistics of floating population in different regions, the region with active floating population has a higher regional GDP. It is found that the floating population has the advantages of economic development and geography, such as Changchun and Jilin, Songyuan and Yanbian prefecture. The forecast number for the floating population in Jilin Province is 4.3 million, which still maintains the negative net migration rate since the 1980s. Many situations and problems associated with the population decline will play an important role in the economic development and political policies of Jilin Province. Cultural structure attributes and other aspects. From 2000 to 2014, the GDP of Jilin Province increased by a large margin, but in the past 14 years, the contribution rate of the three industries in Jilin Province has not changed significantly, and it is still a province dominated by the first and second industries. The correlation between floating population quantity and economic growth index is very close. After factor analysis of seven statistical indicators related to economic growth, a representative factor is obtained, and the information explanation is more than 85%. Through the test of causality between variables, it is proved that the change of floating population has an effect on economic growth, but the reaction of economic growth to floating population is not valid.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F127

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