【摘要】：在2015年進行的人口抽查公報中,新疆人口老齡化系數(shù)為7.21%,標志著新疆正式進入人口老齡化社會。作為西北重鎮(zhèn),絲綢之路核心區(qū)的新疆來說,其未來經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定將是關注的焦點,而人口因素將成為經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展中不可忽視的因素,人口因素中人口老齡化對經(jīng)濟社會的影響較為深遠。因此解析新疆人口老齡化的發(fā)展過程,剖析人口老齡化過程中新疆人口經(jīng)濟效應,減少負效應以發(fā)展經(jīng)濟應對老齡化問題,從而促進人口與經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。本文首先對新疆人口老齡化現(xiàn)狀進行介紹,分別從總體、地區(qū)、民族三個角度來描述,并對新疆人口老齡化的成因從人口角度開展分析。其次從時間維度上采用描述性統(tǒng)計的方法,展示新疆自1990-2015年人口老齡化發(fā)展水平和速度,人口結(jié)構(gòu)和撫養(yǎng)比的變動情況,總結(jié)出新疆人口老齡化呈現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)差異明顯、“未富先老”和“未備先至”的特征,同時為更好地把握人口老齡化的發(fā)展趨勢運用國際人口預測軟件,以第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)為原始數(shù)據(jù),設定低、中、高三種不同的生育水平,對新疆2011-2040年人口老齡化情況進行預測。從空間維度上,采用空間計量統(tǒng)計法,繪制人口老齡化的空間演化圖,結(jié)果顯示新疆人口老齡化是以天山北坡為圓心向四周擴展的同心圓的發(fā)展模式,并根據(jù)莫尼卡指數(shù),得出新疆人口老齡化空間集聚性經(jīng)歷先減弱后加強的變化,其空間分布將進一步呈現(xiàn)非均衡的集聚特征,說明新疆人口老齡化自1990年以來在逐步加深,在空間上具有較強的傳導性。其次,本文為了研究人口老齡化下對新疆的人口經(jīng)濟效應,從人口老齡化的直接經(jīng)濟和間接經(jīng)濟效應兩個方面進行研究,采用時間跨度為1990-2015年,選取變量通過建立VAR模型,探究人口老齡化的直接經(jīng)濟效應。實證研究得出,從長期看老年撫養(yǎng)比對經(jīng)濟的直接效應為負,少年撫養(yǎng)比對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生的是正效應。同時脈沖函數(shù)分析人口老齡化通過對物質(zhì)資本存量、人力資本水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的路徑進而對新疆產(chǎn)生的間接經(jīng)濟效應。在短期內(nèi),老年撫養(yǎng)比對物質(zhì)資本存量存在顯著的正向作用,但從長期來說,人口老齡化對物質(zhì)資本存量是負向效應。老年撫養(yǎng)比對人力資本的作用較為波動,但總的來說負效應較為顯著。老年撫養(yǎng)比對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級產(chǎn)生微弱的正向效應。最后本文通過實證結(jié)論,對當期新疆人口老齡化提出建議。重視人力資本,挖掘老年人口的人力資本;調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),合力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟以應對老齡化;落實二胎政策,放緩老齡化步伐;促進人口流動,優(yōu)化人口分布;完善養(yǎng)老保障體系,提高養(yǎng)老質(zhì)量。
[Abstract]:The coefficient of population aging in Xinjiang is 7.21, which indicates that Xinjiang has entered an aging society. As a key town in the northwest, Xinjiang, the core area of the Silk Road, will pay close attention to its future economic development and social stability, while the population factor will become a factor that cannot be ignored in the economic and social development. Among the population factors, the aging of the population has a profound impact on the economy and society. Therefore, this paper analyzes the development process of population aging in Xinjiang, analyzes the economic effect of population in Xinjiang in the process of population aging, and reduces the negative effect in order to develop the economy to deal with the problem of aging, thus promoting the coordinated development of population and economy. This paper first introduces the current situation of population aging in Xinjiang, respectively from the overall, regional and ethnic perspectives to describe, and the causes of population aging in Xinjiang from the perspective of population analysis. Secondly, using the descriptive statistical method from the time dimension, the paper shows the development level and speed of population aging, population structure and dependency ratio change from 1990 to 2015 in Xinjiang, and concludes that the aging of population in Xinjiang presents obvious difference between urban and rural areas. The features of "getting old before you get rich" and "getting old before you are ready". In order to better understand the development trend of population ageing, we use the international population forecasting software to use the data of the sixth census as the original data. Three different fertility levels were used to predict the aging of Xinjiang population in 2011-2040. From the spatial dimension, the spatial evolution map of population aging is drawn by using the spatial measurement statistics method. The result shows that the population aging in Xinjiang is a concentric development model with the north slope of Tianshan Mountain as the center and extends around it, and according to the Monica index, It is concluded that the spatial agglomeration of population aging in Xinjiang has been weakened first and then strengthened, and its spatial distribution will further present the characteristics of non-equilibrium agglomeration, which indicates that the aging of population in Xinjiang has gradually deepened since 1990. It has strong conductivity in space. Secondly, in order to study the economic effect of population in Xinjiang under the aging of population, this paper studies the direct and indirect economic effects of the aging of the population from two aspects: the time span is 1990-2015, and the variables are selected to establish the VAR model. Explore the direct economic effects of population aging. The empirical study shows that in the long run, the direct effect of the old age dependency ratio is negative, and the juvenile rearing ratio has a positive effect on the economic growth. At the same time, the impulse function is used to analyze the indirect economic effects of aging population on the stock of material capital, the level of human capital and the industrial structure. In the short term, the aging dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the physical capital stock, but in the long run, the aging of the population has a negative effect on the physical capital stock. The role of human capital is more fluctuating, but the negative effect is more significant. The elderly dependency ratio has a weak positive effect on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, through empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the current population aging in Xinjiang. Pay attention to human capital, excavate the human capital of the old population, adjust the industrial structure, develop the economy together to deal with the aging, carry out the policy of the second child, slow down the aging step, promote the population flow, optimize the population distribution; We will improve the old-age security system and improve the quality of providing for the aged.
【學位授予單位】：新疆大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2

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