“一帶一路”沿線國家服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-29 20:01
【摘要】：當(dāng)前,伴隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程的不斷加快,特別是信息科學(xué)技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展及全球貿(mào)易規(guī)則的建立和完善,服務(wù)貿(mào)易正經(jīng)歷著黃金發(fā)展時(shí)段。根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)的統(tǒng)計(jì),2000年以來,服務(wù)貿(mào)易迎來了有史以來最為快速的新增長時(shí)期:2004年全球服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口總額突破2萬億美元大關(guān),2007年突破3萬億美元大關(guān),2011年突破4萬億美元大關(guān),2014年增長到49404億美元;除金融危機(jī)后出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長以外,2000-2014年間服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口保持了年均增長近10%的速率。服務(wù)貿(mào)易已發(fā)展成為全球貿(mào)易競爭的焦點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域,各國服務(wù)貿(mào)易競爭力的大小已經(jīng)成為衡量一國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和國際競爭力大小的決定性指標(biāo)。隨著服務(wù)業(yè)及其貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略地位的提升,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者們開始對服務(wù)貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行探索和檢驗(yàn),其中服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)作為該研究方向下較為前沿和熱點(diǎn)的研究內(nèi)容,對其進(jìn)行探究具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。與此同時(shí),世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局正發(fā)生著復(fù)雜而深刻的變化:WTO貿(mào)易規(guī)則談判失敗后,各國紛紛加快了尋求區(qū)域合作的步伐;美國構(gòu)建了跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(TPP)和跨大西洋貿(mào)易和投資伙伴協(xié)定(TTIP),企圖建立亞、歐兩大區(qū)域的貿(mào)易關(guān)系新規(guī)則以重新攫取世界經(jīng)濟(jì)主導(dǎo)權(quán);國際投資和貿(mào)易格局正醞釀著深刻變化。在此背景下,2013年9月7日,習(xí)近平主席在哈薩克斯坦的重要講話中首次提出了共建"絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶"的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃;同年10月,習(xí)近平主席在印度尼西亞國會(huì)上明確提出建設(shè)"21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路"的倡議。"一帶一路"是我國倡導(dǎo)提出的促進(jìn)沿線各國開放合作的宏大經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略,其主旨在于通過推進(jìn)沿線國家間的交流磋商,在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施互聯(lián)互通、產(chǎn)業(yè)投資、資源開發(fā)等領(lǐng)域項(xiàng)目合作的基礎(chǔ)上,開展更廣泛和深層次的區(qū)域合作。自該戰(zhàn)略被提出以來,學(xué)界及相關(guān)政策部門決策人的目光便鎖定在如何充分利用該戰(zhàn)略來促進(jìn)區(qū)域內(nèi)的產(chǎn)能合作及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),從而以要素和產(chǎn)品流動(dòng)來帶動(dòng)區(qū)域內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)和技術(shù)升級等領(lǐng)域,為此,研究的對象也多為制造業(yè)和具體的區(qū)域合作項(xiàng)目。然而,在全球服務(wù)貿(mào)易競相發(fā)展、各國不斷出臺(tái)相關(guān)措施促進(jìn)國內(nèi)服務(wù)部門升級和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的背景下,"一帶一路"不應(yīng)只片面強(qiáng)調(diào)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和產(chǎn)能合作,應(yīng)加快培育新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)和競爭合作點(diǎn)——區(qū)域內(nèi)服務(wù)貿(mào)易的合作與升級。本文立足于全球服務(wù)業(yè)興起和"一帶一路"區(qū)域合作框架的重要戰(zhàn)略地位,在梳理了國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果和定性分析了"一帶一路"沿線亞洲國家服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒Hausmann et al.(2007)的方法,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度指數(shù)的測算體系,并利用2005-2014年間"一帶一路"沿線15個(gè)亞洲國家的跨國數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,計(jì)算了各國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度,從而明確了當(dāng)前各國的服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度處于較低水平、但服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度正趨于逐步上升且產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀;與此同時(shí),通過建立計(jì)量實(shí)證模型,運(yùn)用固定效應(yīng)面板回歸和廣義矩估計(jì)等方法對該15個(gè)國家的服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)在樣本區(qū)間內(nèi),樣本國家的服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度的提升與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間表現(xiàn)出顯著的正相關(guān)性,即便在將其他解釋變量作為控制變量納入模型以后,該結(jié)論依然成立,證實(shí)了"服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度提升越快,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)也將以更高的速率增長"這一說法在"一帶一路"沿線國家的適用性;最后,本文以實(shí)證結(jié)果為支點(diǎn),提出切實(shí)而可行的建議,為促進(jìn)"一帶一路"國家服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展進(jìn)而提升各國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和區(qū)域國家競爭力提供一些有益的參考。
[Abstract]:At present, with the adjustment of world economic structure and the acceleration of economic integration, especially the rapid development of information science and technology and the establishment and improvement of Global trade rules, service trade is experiencing a golden period of development. Yi ushered in the fastest new period of growth ever: in 2004, the total value of Global trade in services exceeded the $2 trillion barrier, in 2007 exceeded the $3 trillion barrier, in 2011 exceeded the $4 trillion barrier, in 2014 increased to $494.4 billion; in addition to the negative growth after the financial crisis, service trade exports maintained in 2000-2014. The average annual growth rate is nearly 10%. Trade in services has become the focus of Global trade competition. The competitiveness of trade in services has become a decisive indicator of a country's domestic economic development level and international competitiveness. The correlation between trade and economic growth has been explored and tested. The economic effects of the technical complexity of service trade export, as a frontier and hotspot in the research direction, have important theoretical and practical significance. After the failure of the negotiation of the Easy Rules, many countries have accelerated the pace of seeking regional cooperation; the United States has constructed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) in an attempt to establish new rules for trade relations between Asia and Europe in order to regain the dominance of the world economy; the pattern of international investment and trade is under consideration. Brewing profound changes. Against this background, in September 7, 2013, President Xi Jinping made the first strategic plan for building a "Silk Road Economic Belt" in an important speech in Kazakhstan. In October of the same year, President Xi Jinping made a clear proposal in the Indonesia parliament to build the "maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century". The grand economic strategy to promote open cooperation among the countries along the line proposed by the director aims to promote wider and deeper regional cooperation on the basis of project cooperation in the fields of infrastructure interconnection, industrial investment, and resource development by promoting exchanges and consultations among the countries along the line. Policy-makers focus on how to make full use of the strategy to promote regional capacity cooperation and infrastructure construction, so as to drive the upgrading of industries and technologies within the region by the flow of factors and products. For this reason, the research object is mostly manufacturing and specific regional cooperation projects. With the development of various countries and the continuous introduction of relevant measures to promote the upgrading of domestic service sectors and the optimization of industrial structure, the "one belt and one road" should not only emphasize unilaterally the cooperation of infrastructure and production capacity, but also speed up the cultivation of new economic growth points and competition cooperation points - the cooperation and upgrading of service trade within the region. The important strategic position of the rise of the industry and the framework of the "one belt and one way" regional cooperation framework, on the basis of combing relevant research results at home and abroad, and qualitatively analyzing the current situation of the development of the service trade in Asian countries along the "one belt and one road", and drawing on the method of Hausmann et al. (2007), has constructed a measurement system for the export technology complexity index of the service trade. Taking the cross-country data of 15 Asian countries along the "one belt and one road" for 2005-2014 years as samples, the export technology complexity of each country's service trade is calculated, thus making clear that the technology complexity of export trade in services is at a low level, but the complexity of export trade in service trade is gradually increasing and the product structure is constantly changing. At the same time, through the establishment of econometric empirical model, using fixed-effect panel regression and generalized moment estimation to test the economic growth effect of the technical complexity of service trade export in 15 countries, we find that in the sample interval, the technical complexity of service trade export in the sample countries has improved and the economy has improved. There is a significant positive correlation between economic growth and even after taking other explanatory variables as control variables into the model, the conclusion is still established, which confirms the applicability of "the faster the export technology complexity of service trade increases and the national economy will grow at a higher rate". Based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward practical and feasible suggestions, which will provide some useful references for promoting the development of service trade in the "one belt and one road" country and further enhancing the economic development level and regional competitiveness of other countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F752.68
[Abstract]:At present, with the adjustment of world economic structure and the acceleration of economic integration, especially the rapid development of information science and technology and the establishment and improvement of Global trade rules, service trade is experiencing a golden period of development. Yi ushered in the fastest new period of growth ever: in 2004, the total value of Global trade in services exceeded the $2 trillion barrier, in 2007 exceeded the $3 trillion barrier, in 2011 exceeded the $4 trillion barrier, in 2014 increased to $494.4 billion; in addition to the negative growth after the financial crisis, service trade exports maintained in 2000-2014. The average annual growth rate is nearly 10%. Trade in services has become the focus of Global trade competition. The competitiveness of trade in services has become a decisive indicator of a country's domestic economic development level and international competitiveness. The correlation between trade and economic growth has been explored and tested. The economic effects of the technical complexity of service trade export, as a frontier and hotspot in the research direction, have important theoretical and practical significance. After the failure of the negotiation of the Easy Rules, many countries have accelerated the pace of seeking regional cooperation; the United States has constructed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) in an attempt to establish new rules for trade relations between Asia and Europe in order to regain the dominance of the world economy; the pattern of international investment and trade is under consideration. Brewing profound changes. Against this background, in September 7, 2013, President Xi Jinping made the first strategic plan for building a "Silk Road Economic Belt" in an important speech in Kazakhstan. In October of the same year, President Xi Jinping made a clear proposal in the Indonesia parliament to build the "maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century". The grand economic strategy to promote open cooperation among the countries along the line proposed by the director aims to promote wider and deeper regional cooperation on the basis of project cooperation in the fields of infrastructure interconnection, industrial investment, and resource development by promoting exchanges and consultations among the countries along the line. Policy-makers focus on how to make full use of the strategy to promote regional capacity cooperation and infrastructure construction, so as to drive the upgrading of industries and technologies within the region by the flow of factors and products. For this reason, the research object is mostly manufacturing and specific regional cooperation projects. With the development of various countries and the continuous introduction of relevant measures to promote the upgrading of domestic service sectors and the optimization of industrial structure, the "one belt and one road" should not only emphasize unilaterally the cooperation of infrastructure and production capacity, but also speed up the cultivation of new economic growth points and competition cooperation points - the cooperation and upgrading of service trade within the region. The important strategic position of the rise of the industry and the framework of the "one belt and one way" regional cooperation framework, on the basis of combing relevant research results at home and abroad, and qualitatively analyzing the current situation of the development of the service trade in Asian countries along the "one belt and one road", and drawing on the method of Hausmann et al. (2007), has constructed a measurement system for the export technology complexity index of the service trade. Taking the cross-country data of 15 Asian countries along the "one belt and one road" for 2005-2014 years as samples, the export technology complexity of each country's service trade is calculated, thus making clear that the technology complexity of export trade in services is at a low level, but the complexity of export trade in service trade is gradually increasing and the product structure is constantly changing. At the same time, through the establishment of econometric empirical model, using fixed-effect panel regression and generalized moment estimation to test the economic growth effect of the technical complexity of service trade export in 15 countries, we find that in the sample interval, the technical complexity of service trade export in the sample countries has improved and the economy has improved. There is a significant positive correlation between economic growth and even after taking other explanatory variables as control variables into the model, the conclusion is still established, which confirms the applicability of "the faster the export technology complexity of service trade increases and the national economy will grow at a higher rate". Based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward practical and feasible suggestions, which will provide some useful references for promoting the development of service trade in the "one belt and one road" country and further enhancing the economic development level and regional competitiveness of other countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F752.68
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 溫麗琴;盧進(jìn)勇;;“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略與山西對外投資產(chǎn)業(yè)布局[J];國際經(jīng)濟(jì)合作;2016年03期
2 朱廷s，
本文編號：2212265
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