發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-06 12:26

  本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)施肥 + 化石燃料燃燒　； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：人類(lèi)活動(dòng)對(duì)自然氮循環(huán)過(guò)程的擾動(dòng)導(dǎo)致活性氮大氣排放急劇增長(zhǎng),明確其排放時(shí)空格局對(duì)氣候變化減緩以及相應(yīng)大氣污染控制措施的制定具有重要意義。農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)與化石燃料燃燒在全球人為大氣活性氮排放中占比分別為56.5%、35.3%；我國(guó)來(lái)自農(nóng)業(yè)施肥的溫室氣體氧化亞氮(N20)和來(lái)自化石燃料燃燒的二次細(xì)顆粒物主要前體物氮氧化物(NOx)是活性氮排放中的典型污染物。然而,由于空間數(shù)據(jù)的缺乏,N20和NOx排放源強(qiáng)的空間分布評(píng)估仍頗具挑戰(zhàn)。生物地球化學(xué)過(guò)程模型、遙感技術(shù)的發(fā)展為活性氮空間評(píng)估提供了空間信息,但如何挖掘空間信息數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)而量化活性氮排放時(shí)空規(guī)律,目前尚不明確。本文旨在從活性氮在不同時(shí)間與地域的生物地球化學(xué)與人類(lèi)活動(dòng)足跡視角,利用多源數(shù)據(jù)與統(tǒng)計(jì)建模手段破解數(shù)據(jù)缺乏難題,解析農(nóng)業(yè)施肥N20與化石燃料燃燒NOx排放時(shí)空格局。在排放清單、生物地球化學(xué)模型與遙感反演方法綜述基礎(chǔ)上,以中國(guó)省市區(qū)域?yàn)榭臻g尺度、最大數(shù)據(jù)可獲取年份為時(shí)間邊界,通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒、研究論文等文獻(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)與全球遙感數(shù)據(jù)共享平臺(tái)數(shù)據(jù)采集,研究了農(nóng)業(yè)施肥的N20排放與化石燃料燃燒的NOx排放時(shí)空足跡評(píng)估模型。以我國(guó)典型特色經(jīng)濟(jì)作物毛竹為例,利用生物地球化學(xué)過(guò)程模型DeComposition-DeNitrification (DNDC)蒙特卡洛模擬數(shù)據(jù)樣本,通過(guò)偏相關(guān)分析法篩選評(píng)估參數(shù),進(jìn)而采用逐步多元回歸分析法構(gòu)建了施肥N20排放計(jì)算模型,評(píng)估我國(guó)省域尺度毛竹林N20排放源強(qiáng)分布；通過(guò)DMSP/OLS夜間穩(wěn)定燈光遙感數(shù)據(jù)與NOx排放相關(guān)性分析驗(yàn)證,開(kāi)展了基于聚類(lèi)分析的地域分區(qū),構(gòu)建了不同區(qū)域基于夜間燈光的燃燒源NOx排放回歸模型,并采用基于空間自相關(guān)分析的Moran's1指數(shù)解析了NOx排放的空間集聚特征；通過(guò)農(nóng)業(yè)施肥情景分析與區(qū)域問(wèn)貿(mào)易流通隱含氮足跡的多區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出分析探討了N20與NOx足跡的管理對(duì)策。主要研究結(jié)論如下：(1)毛竹林施肥活性氮N20排放(E)時(shí)空格局與氮肥施用量(N)和降水量(P)顯著相關(guān)。比選三種基于當(dāng)前施肥N20排放影響理論的線(xiàn)性與非線(xiàn)性模型,最優(yōu)排放評(píng)估模型為E=0.057 N-2.61×10-3P,在 96≤N≤298 kgN hm-2、700≤P≤ 2100 mm yr-1的應(yīng)用條件下模型參數(shù)誤差所導(dǎo)致不確定性區(qū)間為±3.2%。統(tǒng)計(jì)建模所采用DNDC蒙特卡洛數(shù)據(jù)樣本,經(jīng)點(diǎn)位驗(yàn)證DNDC模擬值與實(shí)測(cè)報(bào)道值相對(duì)偏差、均方根誤差分別為+10.2%、1.7；最優(yōu)排放模型評(píng)估結(jié)果的交叉驗(yàn)證R2為0.845,其表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于同類(lèi)研究。我國(guó)毛竹林施肥N2O排放,隨施肥量增長(zhǎng)而呈上升態(tài)勢(shì),自第一次全國(guó)森林資源清查以來(lái)的40年內(nèi),毛竹林N2O排放總量從1973年的16±0.3 Gg yr-1升至2012年的17.0±3.6Gg yr-1,年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)6.2%；降水量是主要活性氮源強(qiáng)調(diào)控因子,導(dǎo)致肥料氮至N2O轉(zhuǎn)化足跡的地域差異,內(nèi)陸省份單位施肥量所致N2O排放較沿海地區(qū)高38.0%。(2)化石燃料燃燒的NOx排放與夜間燈光強(qiáng)度顯著相關(guān)。經(jīng)聚類(lèi)分析比選,建立了DMSP/OLS夜間穩(wěn)定燈光遙感影像柵格單位灰度值NOx排放的分區(qū)指標(biāo),將研究區(qū)內(nèi)30省劃分為Ⅰ區(qū)和Ⅱ區(qū),Ⅰ區(qū)包括內(nèi)蒙古、江西、湖北、湖南、四川與貴州6省、Ⅱ區(qū)包括北京、上海、廣東等其余24省和自治區(qū)；NOx排放最優(yōu)評(píng)估模型分別為Ⅰ區(qū)y=1.070x(R2=0.948),Ⅱ區(qū)y=0.696x(R2=0.950),其中y為NOx排放源強(qiáng)、x為DMSP/OLS夜間穩(wěn)定燈光遙感影像柵格灰度值；燈光模型評(píng)估結(jié)果與已有清單、遙感反演結(jié)果具有較高可比性,NOx年排放評(píng)估值較清單文獻(xiàn)值高4.1%-13.8%,NOx排放強(qiáng)度與對(duì)流層NO2垂直柱濃度遙感反演數(shù)據(jù)相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.740-0.794(p0.01)�；谖覈�(guó)在“九五”至“十一五”期間可獲取的DMSP/OLS數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算了化石燃料燃燒的NOx排放,結(jié)果顯示NOx排放從1995年的8.6 Tg增長(zhǎng)至2010年的28.1 Tg,年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)8.2%；全國(guó)NOx排放強(qiáng)度的Moran's Ⅰ指數(shù)在研究期內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)50.7%,表明NOx排放空間集聚性逐年增強(qiáng),其中京津冀、長(zhǎng)三角、珠三角地區(qū)呈典型高-高集聚特征,對(duì)周邊區(qū)域NOx排放具有強(qiáng)大的輻射與帶動(dòng)作用。(3)經(jīng)N2O與NOx足跡分析,提出了大氣氮排放的空間分異管控措施。對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)毛竹林N2O排放,經(jīng)情景模擬足跡分析,沿海地區(qū)首要控制施肥方式,內(nèi)陸地區(qū)則首要控制肥料種類(lèi),將在不影響毛竹產(chǎn)量的前提下使我國(guó)毛竹林N2O減排潛力于2030年達(dá)11.1 Tg yr-1 CO2-eq,其減排量約為當(dāng)前我國(guó)農(nóng)田N2O總排放量的5.6%。對(duì)化石燃料燃燒NOx排放,經(jīng)區(qū)域間投入產(chǎn)出分析,NOx排放熱區(qū)京津、南部沿海、東部沿海地區(qū)因?qū)ν獠窟M(jìn)口商品與服務(wù)消費(fèi)分別產(chǎn)生127.4、631.4、697.2Ggyr-1隱含氮足跡(以NOx計(jì)),在生產(chǎn)型NOx減排管理的同時(shí)加強(qiáng)對(duì)該區(qū)域低氮消費(fèi)模式的引導(dǎo)可有效降低全國(guó)氮足跡。
[Abstract]:The disturbance of human activity to natural nitrogen cycle leads to a sharp increase in the emission of active nitrogen atmosphere. It is of great significance to clarify the spatial and temporal pattern of its emission. The ratio of agricultural production and fossil fuel combustion to the anthropogenic atmospheric active nitrogen emissions in the world is 56.5% and 35.3%, respectively. The greenhouse gas Nitrous Oxide (N20) from agricultural fertilization and the two fine particulate matter precursor nitrogen oxides (NOx) from fossil fuels are typical pollutants in the emission of active nitrogen. However, due to the lack of spatial data, the assessment of the spatial distribution of N20 and NOx emission sources is still quite challenging. The development of remote sensing technology provides spatial information for the assessment of active nitrogen space, but it is not clear how to excavate spatial information data and then quantify the temporal and spatial regularity of active nitrogen emission. This paper aims to use multi source data and statistical modeling methods from the perspective of biogeochemistry and human activity footprint of active nitrogen in different time and region. Solve the problem of data lack, analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of N20 and fossil fuel combustion NOx emission. On the basis of the emission list, the biogeochemical model and the remote sensing inversion method, the largest data can be taken as the time boundary with the provinces and cities in China as the spatial scale, and the literature data and all the papers are studied through the statistical yearbook. The data sharing platform of the ball remote sensing data sharing platform is used to study the N20 emission of agricultural fertilization and the time and space Footprint Assessment Model of the NOx emission from fossil fuel combustion. Taking the typical typical economic crop of Mao bamboo in our country, using the biogeochemical process model DeComposition-DeNitrification (DNDC) Monte Carlo simulation data samples, the partial correlation is divided into the partial correlation. The evaluation parameters were selected, and the N20 emission model was constructed by stepwise multiple regression analysis, and the strong distribution of N20 emission source in the bamboo forest in China was evaluated. The regional division based on the cluster analysis was carried out through the correlation analysis of the DMSP/OLS night stable light remote sensing data and the NOx emission. The domain based on the night light based NOx emission regression model, and using the Moran's1 index based on spatial autocorrelation analysis to analyze the spatial agglomeration characteristics of NOx emissions, and to explore the management countermeasures of the N20 and NOx footprints through the analysis of agricultural fertilization scenarios and the multi regional input and output analysis of the hidden nitrogen footprint of regional trade circulation. The following conclusions are as follows: (1) the spatio-temporal pattern of Mao Zhulin's fertilized active nitrogen N20 emission (E) is significantly related to nitrogen fertilizer application (N) and precipitation (P). The optimal emission assessment model is E=0.057 N-2.61 x 10-3P, and the optimal emission assessment model is E=0.057 N-2.61 x 10-3P, and is 96 less than N < 298 kgN hm-2700 < P < 2100. DNDC Monte Carlo data samples are used in the uncertain interval of the model parameter error of the model under the application conditions, and the relative deviation between the DNDC simulation value and the measured report value is verified by point position, and the root mean square error is +10.2%, 1.7 respectively. The cross validation of the optimal emission model evaluation results is 0.845, and its performance is better than that of the same kind of research. The N2O emission of bamboo forest in China is rising with the increase of fertilization. In 40 years since the first national forest resource inventory, the total N2O emission of bamboo forest has risen from 16 + 0.3 Gg yr-1 in 1973 to 17 + 3.6Gg yr-1 in 2012, with an annual average growth rate of 6.2%; precipitation is the main active nitrogen source which emphasizes control factors, leading to fertilizer nitrogen to N2 The regional difference of the O conversion footprint, the N2O emission from the inland province, the higher 38.0%. (2) than the coastal area, the NOx emission from the combustion of fossil fuel is significantly related to the night light intensity. By cluster analysis, the zoning index of NOx emission of the grid unit grey degree of DMSP/OLS at night stable light remote sensing image is established, and the 30 provinces in the study area will be set up. The area I was divided into area I and II, including Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan and Guizhou, the other 24 provinces and autonomous regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and other 24 provinces and autonomous regions; NOx emission optimal evaluation model was I region y=1.070x (R2=0.948), and II zone y=0.696x (R2= 0.950), of which y was NOx emission source, X was DMSP/OLS night stable light remote sensing The gray value of the image grid, the evaluation results of the light model and the existing list, the remote sensing inversion results have high comparability. The NOx emission assessment value is higher than the list literature value 4.1%-13.8%. The correlation coefficient of the NOx emission intensity and the remote sensing inversion data of the vertical column concentration of the troposphere is 0.740-0.794 (P0.01). Based on our country from "95" to "11th Five-Year" The available DMSP/OLS data calculated the NOx emission of fossil fuel combustion. The results showed that the NOx emission increased from 8.6 Tg in 1995 to 28.1 Tg in 2010, and the annual growth rate was 8.2%. The Moran's I index of national NOx emission intensity increased by 50.7% in the study period, indicating that the spatial agglomeration of NOx emissions increased year by year, including Beijing, Tianjin Hebei, and long three. Angle, the Pearl River Delta region has a typical high concentration characteristic, which has strong radiation and driving effect on the NOx emission in the surrounding region. (3) the spatial differentiation and control measures for atmospheric nitrogen emissions are proposed by N2O and NOx footprint analysis. The agricultural Mao Zhulin N2O emission, the scene simulation footprint analysis, the primary control fertilization mode in the coastal areas, and the inland areas The primary control of the type of fertilizer will make the N2O emission reduction potential of the bamboo forest in China up to 11.1 Tg yr-1 CO2-eq in 2030 without affecting the yield of bamboo, and its reduction is about NOx emission from the current N2O total emission of farmland by 5.6%. to fossil fuels, through the interregional input and output analysis, the NOx emission heat area, the southern coast and the east coast. In the region, the 127.4631.4697.2Ggyr-1 hidden nitrogen footprint (NOx) is produced for the external import goods and service consumption, and the guidance of the low nitrogen consumption pattern in the region can effectively reduce the national nitrogen footprint in the management of the production type NOx emission reduction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X511

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