夜間合法用水量預(yù)測與DMA漏損分析方法研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-06-15 06:31
本文選題:無收益水量 + DMA技術(shù); 參考:《湖南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文
【摘要】:無收益水量(產(chǎn)銷差)是供水企業(yè)供水量與售水量之差,主要包括表觀漏損和真實漏損,控制和降低無收益水量對節(jié)約水資源、降低供水企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和保障供水安全具有重要意義。由于管網(wǎng)鋪設(shè)在地下、供水區(qū)域廣,表觀漏損和真實漏損普遍具有隱蔽性、往復(fù)性,全面鋪開稽查和檢漏具有很大的難度,并且時效性很低。DMA技術(shù)利用加裝的遠(yuǎn)傳流量計和壓力設(shè)備將管網(wǎng)分割成若干區(qū)域,通過實時監(jiān)控和分析遠(yuǎn)傳流量、壓力數(shù)據(jù),確定引起區(qū)域水量損失的主要因素,是高效控制和降低無收益水量的方式之一。但該技術(shù)在應(yīng)用于我國供水管網(wǎng)漏損控制時仍存在關(guān)鍵參數(shù)缺乏、分析預(yù)測方法不足的問題,將對分析結(jié)果帶來一定的干擾。本文以廣州市遠(yuǎn)傳戶表智能小區(qū)和建立的DMA小區(qū)為基礎(chǔ),對DMA技術(shù)中的夜間合法用水量參數(shù)、漏損分析方法進(jìn)行了研究和優(yōu)化。夜間合法用水量的分析與量化。首先對不同日期區(qū)域居民夜間合法用水總量的變化和用戶夜間合法用水的分布規(guī)律進(jìn)行了分析,確定了不同日期的區(qū)域夜間合法用水總量圍繞平均值在一定范圍內(nèi)上下波動,并發(fā)現(xiàn)用戶群體的日用水量與夜間合法用水量存在統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的同增趨勢。然后優(yōu)化了夜間合法用水量的量化方法,擬合得到“戶均日均用水量—戶均夜間合法用水量的日平均值”、“夜間合法用水總量的波動范圍—平均值”的關(guān)系式,可分別用于不同小區(qū)夜間合法用水量平均值和波動范圍的預(yù)測,優(yōu)于傳統(tǒng)的無識別單一參數(shù)法。另外,還對不同移動平均條件下的夜間合法用水量變化范圍進(jìn)行了研究與量化。無收益水量平衡分析與表觀漏損的判定;跓o收益水量平衡分析的主要過程,確定了真實漏損量化的誤差來源,并推導(dǎo)出真實漏損誤差的量化公式。以水表計量特性和用戶用水模式為基礎(chǔ),建立售水計量誤差合理范圍的量化方法,將售水計量誤差的上限作為表觀漏損的判定參數(shù),結(jié)合無收益水量平衡分析結(jié)果判定和指導(dǎo)表觀漏損控制。DMA小區(qū)真實漏損的判定。研究建立了夜間最小流量移動平均隔差法快速判定真實漏損,以降低干擾因素的影響,提高判定效率。通過模型和數(shù)據(jù)樣本分析,確定了最優(yōu)的移動平均天數(shù),以及不同小區(qū)漏損判定參數(shù)的閾值大小,并討論了模型的適用條件。
[Abstract]:Non-profit water (production and marketing difference) is the difference between water supply and sale in water supply enterprises, which mainly includes apparent leakage loss and real leakage loss, and the control and reduction of non-income water quantity can save water resources. It is of great significance to reduce the economic loss of water supply enterprises and ensure the safety of water supply. Because the pipe network is laid underground, the water supply area is wide, the apparent leakage and the real leakage are generally hidden and reciprocating, it is very difficult to spread out the inspection and check the leakage completely. And the technology of low timeliness .DMA uses the installed remote Flowmeter and pressure equipment to divide the pipe network into several areas. By monitoring and analyzing the remote flow and pressure data in real time, the main factors causing the water loss in the region are determined. It is one of the ways to control and reduce the non-income water flow efficiently. However, when the technology is applied to the leakage control of water supply network in our country, the key parameters are still lacking and the method of analysis and prediction is insufficient, which will bring some interference to the analysis results. Based on the intelligent residential area of remote home meter and the DMA cell in Guangzhou, this paper studies and optimizes the parameters of water consumption at night and the method of leakage analysis in DMA technology. Analysis and quantification of nightly water consumption. Firstly, the variation of the total amount of legal water used by residents at night and the distribution law of the lawful water use by users at night are analyzed, and it is determined that the total amount of legal water used at night of different dates fluctuates around the average value in a certain range. It is found that the daily water consumption of the user group and the night water consumption have the same increasing trend. Then, the quantitative method of nocturnal legal water consumption is optimized, and the relationship between "daily average water consumption per household" and "the range of fluctuation of the total amount of lawful water consumption at night" is obtained. It can be used to predict the average and fluctuating range of water consumption at night in different residential areas, which is superior to the traditional method without identifying single parameter. In addition, the variation range of nightly water consumption under different moving average conditions was studied and quantified. Analysis of non-profit water balance and determination of apparent leakage loss. Based on the main process of no-return water balance analysis, the error source of real leakage quantization is determined, and the quantization formula of true leakage error is deduced. Based on the metering characteristics of water meter and the water consumption mode of user, the quantitative method of reasonable range of metering error is established, and the upper limit of metering error is taken as the judging parameter of apparent leakage loss. Combined with the analysis results of non-revenue water balance analysis and guidance of apparent leakage control. DMA plot real leakage judgment. In order to reduce the influence of interference factors and improve the efficiency of judgment, the method of moving average interval of minimum flow rate at night is established to determine the real leakage quickly. Through the model and data sample analysis, the optimal moving average days and the threshold value of different cell leakage parameters are determined, and the applicable conditions of the model are discussed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類號】:TU991.31
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