本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化�。� 參考：《重慶理工大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國在經(jīng)歷了改革開放之后,經(jīng)濟(jì)成長迅速,經(jīng)濟(jì)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提高。隨著近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的逐步減緩,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級已成為未來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長的根本問題。縱觀整個世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展歷程,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級和不斷優(yōu)化,已成為各國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的持續(xù)動力。同時,該領(lǐng)域現(xiàn)有的研究成果也從不同角度揭示了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的周期波動的關(guān)系。因此,研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的關(guān)系,不僅可以豐富理論學(xué)習(xí)的知識體系,還可以對保持我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定持續(xù)增長具有積極的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文運(yùn)用產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動理論,在對1978年-2013年中國統(tǒng)計(jì)資料分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)波動現(xiàn)象和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動現(xiàn)象入手,揭示了中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動之間的關(guān)系；通過建立一階差分GMM模型,對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動和經(jīng)濟(jì)波動進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,得出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高度化對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動具有抑制作用的結(jié)論,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的角度提出了對策建議。本文由六部分構(gòu)成：第一部分是緒論,主要介紹研究背景、意義和目的,分析本文研究的可行性問題。第二部分是相關(guān)理論及文獻(xiàn)綜述,介紹關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的理論知識,總結(jié)學(xué)者對此課題的現(xiàn)有論點(diǎn)論述。第三部分是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的機(jī)理分析,介紹產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動如何對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成波動影響的機(jī)理分析。第四部分是中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的統(tǒng)計(jì)性描述,通過描述改革三十多年中國實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況以及產(chǎn)業(yè)變化情況,分析其中原因所在。第五部分是中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動影響的計(jì)量分析,通過定量分析中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的數(shù)據(jù)關(guān)聯(lián)性。本文利用中國31個省市1978年-2013年的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用一階差分GMM模型,分時間階段分析了中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響。第六部分是結(jié)論與建議,基于上述的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,總結(jié)出產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高度化走勢以及對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動有何種影響等幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論。針對“調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),穩(wěn)增長”的中央政策,提出有效的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動建議。
[Abstract]:China has experienced rapid economic growth and steady improvement in economic quality after its reform and opening up. With the gradual slowdown of economic growth in recent years, transforming the mode of economic growth and realizing the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has become the fundamental problem of stable growth of Chinese economy in the future. Throughout the development of the world economy, the transformation, upgrading and continuous optimization of industrial structure have become the sustained driving force of the economic development of various countries. At the same time, the existing research results in this field also reveal the relationship between the change of industrial structure and the cycle fluctuation of economic growth from different angles. Therefore, the study of the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation can not only enrich the knowledge system of theoretical study, but also have positive practical significance to maintain the steady and sustained economic growth of our country. Based on the analysis of the statistical data of China from 1978 to 2013, this paper applies the theory of industrial structure and the theory of economic cycle fluctuation, and starts with the phenomenon of economic fluctuation and the change of industrial structure in China. This paper reveals the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation in China, and makes an empirical study on industrial structure change and economic fluctuation by establishing the first-order differential GMM model. The paper draws the conclusion that the rationalization and elevation of industrial structure can restrain the economic fluctuation, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of industrial structure. This paper consists of six parts: the first part is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, significance and purpose, and analyzes the feasibility of this study. The second part is related theory and literature review, introduces the theoretical knowledge about economic fluctuation and industrial structure, and summarizes the existing arguments of scholars on this subject. The third part is the mechanism analysis of the industrial structure change to the economic fluctuation, introduces how the industrial structure change causes the fluctuation mechanism analysis to the economy. The fourth part is the statistical description of China's industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations. The reasons are analyzed by describing the actual economic situation and industrial changes of China in more than 30 years of reform. The fifth part is the econometric analysis of the impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic fluctuations, through quantitative analysis of the data relevance of China's industrial structure changes to China's economic fluctuations. Based on the panel data from 1978 to 2013 in 31 provinces and cities in China, the first order differential GMM model is used to analyze the effect of industrial structure changes on China's economic fluctuation in different stages. The sixth part is the conclusions and suggestions, based on the above empirical analysis results, summed up the rationalization of industrial structure and the trend of high level, as well as the impact on economic fluctuations and so on. In view of the central policy of "adjusting the structure and stabilizing growth", the paper puts forward some effective suggestions on the change of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F121.3;F124.8

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本文編號：1997024