本文選題：交通安全 + 負(fù)二項回歸模型�。� 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：交通安全統(tǒng)計分析是對交通事故數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析的重要方法,它能從宏觀角度上認(rèn)識事故現(xiàn)象與影響因素之間的內(nèi)在規(guī)律性,從而使得預(yù)測某種交通設(shè)施的交通安全風(fēng)險成為可能。通過統(tǒng)計分析方法研究交通事故數(shù)據(jù),對交通安全和管理工作有著重要的理論意義和應(yīng)用價值。本論文在分析國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,針對以前研究存在的不足,綜合運(yùn)用交通安全工程學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)理論與方法,借助于地理信息系統(tǒng)平臺和統(tǒng)計分析軟件,結(jié)合真實交通數(shù)據(jù)庫本身的特點,通過建立合適的統(tǒng)計模型,從交叉口、路段、交通小區(qū)三個層面對相關(guān)交通安全問題進(jìn)行了分析,研究了交通事故與不同影響因素之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,從數(shù)量層面對交通安全風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了討論,并初步揭示事故發(fā)生的內(nèi)在規(guī)律性。具體來講,本論文研究工作主要有如下幾個方面:(1)匝道可以看做特殊形式的無信號交叉口。以往在匝道相關(guān)交通安全研究中,通常將匝道的安全影響范圍選作半徑為250英尺的圓形區(qū)域,而250英尺的半徑長度并不一定適用于所有匝道處的安全風(fēng)險評估�；谶@種思考,本論文通過在GIS平臺下設(shè)計逐步增加緩沖區(qū)大小的方法,討論了如何設(shè)置匝道安全影響范圍半徑的問題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在研究匝道相關(guān)的交通安全風(fēng)險分析時,設(shè)置影響區(qū)域半徑的最合適范圍是90英尺到150英尺。而在實際的交通安全規(guī)劃工作中,建議針對不同的地區(qū),根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)氐木唧w條件具體分析,或者采用逐步增大影響范圍的方法,來提高交通安全風(fēng)險評估的可靠性。此外,本論文還針對匝道附近的交通安全數(shù)據(jù),采用負(fù)二項回歸模型,分析了匝道車道數(shù)、匝道長度、匝道日均交通量、限速對交通安全事故數(shù)的影響作用。(2)針對交通事故的危害程度,提出了事故危害指數(shù)作為綜合評價不同嚴(yán)重程度的交通安全事故危害性的指標(biāo)。針對事故數(shù)據(jù)過度離散的特點,采用了擬泊松模型對事故危害指標(biāo)和若干重要的自變量進(jìn)行了回歸分析,識別對事故危害有顯著性影響的自變量,并進(jìn)一步得出了相關(guān)數(shù)量結(jié)果。通過統(tǒng)計分析發(fā)現(xiàn),鄉(xiāng)村道路上面的事故危害性更大,而更密集的交叉口也會增大交通事故的危害性。由于州/聯(lián)邦所有的道路的安全條件和防護(hù)措施較好,這類道路也有更小的交通事故危害性。對于交通流量、鋪面等級等經(jīng)常討論的影響因素,本論文也得出了與以前研究類似的結(jié)果,即交通流量越大、鋪面狀況越差,其交通事故危害性就越大。(3)交通安全事故的發(fā)生往往是由很多復(fù)雜的影響變量控制的復(fù)雜過程,這些自變量包括道路幾何設(shè)計、交通流特征、駕駛員屬性等等,而這些因素本質(zhì)上可能是高度相關(guān)的,因此自變量之間可能存在的多重共線性不可忽略。針對以往在對交通安全數(shù)據(jù)的研究中,自變量之間的多重共線性并未受到足夠重視的研究現(xiàn)狀,提出了基于極小化貝葉斯風(fēng)險的判別分析方法,在已知先驗信息的條件下,通過極小化最小分類誤差,將樣本按照事故嚴(yán)重程度劃分為若干個不同類別。在所提出劃分規(guī)則下,通過模擬數(shù)據(jù)和實驗觀測數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合的方法,說明了所提出方法的有效性。(4)針對交通事故率的分布特征,通過核密度圖和Q-Q圖對數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了初步的分析和檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)對數(shù)正態(tài)分布能夠較好的符合事故率的分布規(guī)律。在同時考慮數(shù)據(jù)的偏度非零特征及異方差特性的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了相應(yīng)的對數(shù)正態(tài)Hurdle模型,并且通過對比分析了其與γ-Hurdle模型和Weibull-Hurdle模型的表現(xiàn),進(jìn)一步確認(rèn)了所提出模型的優(yōu)勢。由于對數(shù)正態(tài)分布的均值、方差和偏度均取決于尺度參數(shù),因此可進(jìn)一步放松限制推廣模型,將尺度參數(shù)視為樣本自變量進(jìn)行回歸分析,以增強(qiáng)建模靈活性。通過對比基于Tobit模型回歸方法的表現(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)這類參數(shù)可調(diào)的對數(shù)正態(tài)Hurdle模型能夠從數(shù)據(jù)中提取更多信息,從而具有更強(qiáng)的優(yōu)勢。此外,通過對比泊松模型和負(fù)二項回歸模型,分析了基于事故率與事故發(fā)生計數(shù)方法的異同,說明了所建立模型的有效性。(5)從交通小區(qū)層面對交通安全事故的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了評估,通過提出若干綜合指標(biāo)來衡量交通小區(qū)的交通安全水平,并在地理信息系統(tǒng)平臺上對各交通小區(qū)的安全風(fēng)險水平進(jìn)行了可視化處理,對那些風(fēng)險較高的交通小區(qū)進(jìn)行了特別標(biāo)注。此外,還利用負(fù)二項回歸分析模型,對交通安全風(fēng)險與交通小區(qū)相關(guān)的不同自變量之間的定量關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),交通小區(qū)內(nèi)的車道總長度與交通流量與該小區(qū)的交通安全風(fēng)險呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而交通小區(qū)的平均自由流車速與小區(qū)交通安全風(fēng)險呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。在交通小區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會層面來講,交通小區(qū)內(nèi)的平均收入越高、零售業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)從業(yè)人員越少、教育越高、人口數(shù)量越少,其交通安全風(fēng)險水平就越低。這些研究結(jié)果不僅能反映某個交通小區(qū)的交通安全水平,同時也能預(yù)測未來交通小區(qū)的安全風(fēng)險,從而指導(dǎo)正確的交通安全規(guī)劃方向。
[Abstract]:Traffic safety statistical analysis is an important method to analyze traffic accident data. It can understand the inherent regularity between the accident phenomenon and the influencing factors from the macroscopic angle, thus making it possible to predict the traffic safety risk of a traffic facility. On the basis of analyzing the present situation at home and abroad and aiming at the shortcomings of previous research, this paper comprehensively uses traffic safety engineering, statistics theory and method, with the help of geographic information system platform and statistical analysis software, combined with the characteristics of real traffic database itself. After establishing a suitable statistical model, this paper analyzes the related traffic safety problems from three layers of intersection, section and traffic district, studies the relationship between traffic accidents and different influence factors, discusses the risk of traffic safety from the quantitative level, and preliminarily reveals the inherent regularity of the accident. The main research work is as follows: (1) the ramp can be regarded as a special type of non signal intersection. In the past study of ramp related traffic safety, the safety impact of the ramp is usually selected as a circular area with a radius of 250 feet, and the radius length of 250 feet does not necessarily apply to the safety risk assessment at all ramps. Based on this thinking, this paper discusses how to set the radius of the ramp safety impact range by designing a method of gradually increasing the size of the buffer zone under the GIS platform. It is found that the most appropriate range of the radius of the affected area is 90 feet to 150 feet in the study of the ramp related traffic safety risk analysis. In the work of traffic safety planning, it is suggested that the reliability of the risk assessment of traffic safety should be improved according to the specific conditions of local conditions, or the method of increasing the scope of influence gradually. In addition, this paper also uses negative two regression models to analyze the ramp vehicle for the traffic safety data near the ramp. The number, the length of the ramp, the daily traffic volume of the ramp and the influence of the speed limit on the number of traffic accidents. (2) in view of the damage degree of the traffic accidents, the accident hazard index is put forward as an index to evaluate the hazards of traffic safety accidents with different severity. Therefore, the hazard index and some important independent variables are regressive analysis to identify the independent variables which have a significant impact on the accident damage, and further obtain the relevant quantitative results. Through statistical analysis, it is found that the accidents on the rural roads are more dangerous and the more dense intersection will increase the danger of traffic accidents. The safety and protection measures of all roads in the state are better, and these roads also have smaller traffic accidents. For traffic flow, pavement grade and other factors often discussed, this paper also draws a similar result to previous research, that is, the greater the traffic flow, the worse the pavement condition, the greater the danger of traffic accidents. (3) (3) The occurrence of a general safety accident is often a complex process controlled by a number of complex variable variables. These variables include road geometric design, traffic flow characteristics, driver attributes and so on. These factors may be highly correlated in nature, so the possible multiple collinearity between the independent variables can not be ignored. In the study of secure data, the multiple collinearity between independent variables has not been paid much attention to. A discriminant analysis method based on minimization Bayesian risk is proposed. Under the condition of known prior information, the sample is divided into several different categories by minimizing the minimum classification error by the minimum classification error. Under the proposed division rules, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by the combination of simulated data and experimental observation data. (4) according to the distribution characteristics of traffic accident rate, the data are preliminarily analyzed and tested through the nuclear density map and Q-Q diagram, and it is found that the lognormal distribution can better conform to the distribution law of the accident rate. On the basis of the non zero zero characteristic and the heteroscedasticity of the data, the corresponding logarithmic normal Hurdle model is established, and its performance with the gamma -Hurdle model and the Weibull-Hurdle model is compared and analyzed. The advantages of the proposed model are further confirmed. The mean, variance and bias of the lognormal distribution depend on the mean, variance and bias of the lognormal distribution. In order to improve the modeling flexibility, the scaling parameters can be further relaxed and the scale parameters are considered as the sample independent variables to enhance the flexibility of the modeling. By comparing the performance of the Tobit model regression method, it is found that the lognormal Hurdle model of this kind of parameters can extract more information from the data and thus has a stronger effect. In addition, by comparing the Poisson model and the negative two item regression model, the similarities and differences between the accident rate and the accident counting method are analyzed, and the validity of the model is illustrated. (5) the risk of traffic safety accidents is evaluated from the traffic zone layer, and some comprehensive indexes are put forward to measure the traffic safety of the traffic district. On the platform of geographic information system, the level of safety risk of each traffic district was visualized, and the traffic areas with higher risk were specifically tagged. In addition, the negative two regression analysis model was used to determine the quantitative relationship between the traffic safety risk and the different independent variables. It is found that the total lane length and traffic flow in the traffic district have a positive correlation with the risk of traffic safety in this district, and the average free flow speed of the traffic district is negatively related to the risk of traffic safety in the residential district. The fewer employees in the service industry, the higher the education, the less the population, the lower the risk level of traffic safety. These results can not only reflect the level of traffic safety in a certain traffic district, but also predict the safety risk of future traffic areas, thus guiding the correct direction of traffic safety planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491.31

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