本文選題：電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 + 負荷預(yù)測　； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著電力工業(yè)的發(fā)展,電能應(yīng)用的范圍越來越廣泛和深入。電力為國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展提供了強大動力,促進了社會科學(xué)技術(shù)的進步和生產(chǎn)效率的提高;同時,電力技術(shù)的發(fā)展為人民生活水平的提高和國民經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)提供了重要的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。工農(nóng)業(yè)、交通運輸、居民生活、市政商業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的電氣化程度已成為衡量一個國家經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展水平的重要標(biāo)志。本文針對桂陽電網(wǎng)已不能滿足桂陽國民經(jīng)濟社會進一步發(fā)展對電力需求的問題,立足桂陽實際,以當(dāng)前電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)狀為基礎(chǔ)進行近期、中期、遠期電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃,主要工作包括以下幾個方面:(1)統(tǒng)計了桂陽縣境內(nèi)水電、風(fēng)電基本情況;匯總桂陽電網(wǎng)110k V及以上、35k V及10k V網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸變配電設(shè)施并進行統(tǒng)計分析,總結(jié)整個桂陽電網(wǎng)特點并指出當(dāng)前電網(wǎng)存在的問題。(2)以桂陽縣歷年經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和負荷數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合桂陽縣其它發(fā)展規(guī)劃,采用彈性系數(shù)法、線性回歸法、綜合用電水平法和重點用戶法等四種方法進行負荷預(yù)測,比較分析預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)后得到負荷預(yù)測值;根據(jù)用戶負荷特性不同對整個桂陽地區(qū)進行區(qū)域劃分,并依據(jù)相關(guān)規(guī)則進行分區(qū)負荷預(yù)測。(3)在電量預(yù)測的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)各分區(qū)負荷特點確定年最大負荷利用小時數(shù),開展全縣和各分區(qū)電力預(yù)測,并進行全縣和各分區(qū)電力平衡計算和無功功率平衡計算。(4)給出兩種變電容量平衡模式,討論分析后得出推薦方案,以推薦方案為前提進行全縣和各分區(qū)的各電壓等級變電容量平衡計算,以此為基礎(chǔ)得到各電壓等級的變電站布點方案。(5)以負荷預(yù)測與布點方案為基礎(chǔ),進行了近期、中期、遠景主電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃,給出了詳細的規(guī)劃方案,潮流計算結(jié)果表明規(guī)劃方案可行。
[Abstract]:With the development of electric power industry, the application of electric energy is more and more extensive. Electric power has provided a powerful power for the national economy and social development, promoted the progress of social science and technology and the improvement of production efficiency; at the same time, The development of electric power technology provides an important material basis for the improvement of people's living standard and the modernization of national economy. The degree of electrification in the fields of industry and agriculture, transportation, resident life, municipal commerce and so on has become an important symbol to measure the level of economic and social development of a country. In view of the problem that Guiyang power grid can no longer meet the further development of the national economy and society in Guiyang, this paper bases itself on the actual situation of Guiyang and carries out the short-term, medium-term and long-term power network planning based on the current situation of the grid. The main work includes the following aspects: (1) the basic situation of hydropower and wind power in Guiyang County is counted, and the distribution and transmission facilities of 110 kV and above 35 kV and 10 kV in Guiyang Power Grid are collected and analyzed statistically. This paper summarizes the characteristics of the whole Guiyang power network and points out the existing problems of the current power network. Based on the economic development and load data of Guiyang County over the years, combined with other development plans of Guiyang County, the elastic coefficient method and linear regression method are adopted. After comparing and analyzing the forecasting data, the load forecasting values are obtained, and the whole area of Guiyang is divided according to the different characteristics of the users' load, and the four methods, such as the power level method and the key user method, are synthetically used to forecast the load. On the basis of the electricity quantity forecast, the maximum number of hours of annual load utilization is determined according to the load characteristics of each district, and the electric power forecasting of the whole county and the districts is carried out. At the same time, the power balance calculation and reactive power balance calculation of the whole county and each district are carried out. Two variable capacity balance modes are given. After discussion and analysis, the recommended scheme is obtained. Based on the recommended scheme, the transformer capacity balance calculation of the whole county and each district is carried out, based on which the substation distribution scheme of each voltage level is obtained. Based on the load forecasting and distribution scheme, it is carried out in the near and medium term. The detailed planning scheme is given and the result of power flow calculation shows that the plan is feasible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TM715

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