本文選題：電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 + 負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著電力工業(yè)的發(fā)展,電能應(yīng)用的范圍越來(lái)越廣泛和深入。電力為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展提供了強(qiáng)大動(dòng)力,促進(jìn)了社會(huì)科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和生產(chǎn)效率的提高;同時(shí),電力技術(shù)的發(fā)展為人民生活水平的提高和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)提供了重要的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。工農(nóng)業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、居民生活、市政商業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的電氣化程度已成為衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展水平的重要標(biāo)志。本文針對(duì)桂陽(yáng)電網(wǎng)已不能滿足桂陽(yáng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展對(duì)電力需求的問(wèn)題,立足桂陽(yáng)實(shí)際,以當(dāng)前電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)狀為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行近期、中期、遠(yuǎn)期電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃,主要工作包括以下幾個(gè)方面:(1)統(tǒng)計(jì)了桂陽(yáng)縣境內(nèi)水電、風(fēng)電基本情況;匯總桂陽(yáng)電網(wǎng)110k V及以上、35k V及10k V網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸變配電設(shè)施并進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,總結(jié)整個(gè)桂陽(yáng)電網(wǎng)特點(diǎn)并指出當(dāng)前電網(wǎng)存在的問(wèn)題。(2)以桂陽(yáng)縣歷年經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合桂陽(yáng)縣其它發(fā)展規(guī)劃,采用彈性系數(shù)法、線性回歸法、綜合用電水平法和重點(diǎn)用戶法等四種方法進(jìn)行負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè),比較分析預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)后得到負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)值;根據(jù)用戶負(fù)荷特性不同對(duì)整個(gè)桂陽(yáng)地區(qū)進(jìn)行區(qū)域劃分,并依據(jù)相關(guān)規(guī)則進(jìn)行分區(qū)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)。(3)在電量預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)各分區(qū)負(fù)荷特點(diǎn)確定年最大負(fù)荷利用小時(shí)數(shù),開(kāi)展全縣和各分區(qū)電力預(yù)測(cè),并進(jìn)行全縣和各分區(qū)電力平衡計(jì)算和無(wú)功功率平衡計(jì)算。(4)給出兩種變電容量平衡模式,討論分析后得出推薦方案,以推薦方案為前提進(jìn)行全縣和各分區(qū)的各電壓等級(jí)變電容量平衡計(jì)算,以此為基礎(chǔ)得到各電壓等級(jí)的變電站布點(diǎn)方案。(5)以負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)與布點(diǎn)方案為基礎(chǔ),進(jìn)行了近期、中期、遠(yuǎn)景主電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃,給出了詳細(xì)的規(guī)劃方案,潮流計(jì)算結(jié)果表明規(guī)劃方案可行。
[Abstract]:With the development of electric power industry, the application of electric energy is more and more extensive. Electric power has provided a powerful power for the national economy and social development, promoted the progress of social science and technology and the improvement of production efficiency; at the same time, The development of electric power technology provides an important material basis for the improvement of people's living standard and the modernization of national economy. The degree of electrification in the fields of industry and agriculture, transportation, resident life, municipal commerce and so on has become an important symbol to measure the level of economic and social development of a country. In view of the problem that Guiyang power grid can no longer meet the further development of the national economy and society in Guiyang, this paper bases itself on the actual situation of Guiyang and carries out the short-term, medium-term and long-term power network planning based on the current situation of the grid. The main work includes the following aspects: (1) the basic situation of hydropower and wind power in Guiyang County is counted, and the distribution and transmission facilities of 110 kV and above 35 kV and 10 kV in Guiyang Power Grid are collected and analyzed statistically. This paper summarizes the characteristics of the whole Guiyang power network and points out the existing problems of the current power network. Based on the economic development and load data of Guiyang County over the years, combined with other development plans of Guiyang County, the elastic coefficient method and linear regression method are adopted. After comparing and analyzing the forecasting data, the load forecasting values are obtained, and the whole area of Guiyang is divided according to the different characteristics of the users' load, and the four methods, such as the power level method and the key user method, are synthetically used to forecast the load. On the basis of the electricity quantity forecast, the maximum number of hours of annual load utilization is determined according to the load characteristics of each district, and the electric power forecasting of the whole county and the districts is carried out. At the same time, the power balance calculation and reactive power balance calculation of the whole county and each district are carried out. Two variable capacity balance modes are given. After discussion and analysis, the recommended scheme is obtained. Based on the recommended scheme, the transformer capacity balance calculation of the whole county and each district is carried out, based on which the substation distribution scheme of each voltage level is obtained. Based on the load forecasting and distribution scheme, it is carried out in the near and medium term. The detailed planning scheme is given and the result of power flow calculation shows that the plan is feasible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TM715

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