本文選題：政府投資 + 民間投資�。� 參考：《西北大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,投資的概念逐漸為人所知,投資開始在國民經(jīng)濟生活中扮演越來越關鍵的重要角色。投資、消費和出口是驅(qū)動我國經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的“三駕馬車”,這其中,投資處于絕對強勢的地位。投資可以分為政府投資和非政府投資,這種劃分是依據(jù)主體的不同而分的。其中非政府投資主要指民間投資。經(jīng)典的經(jīng)濟學理論對它們的關系做出了不一樣的解釋,IS-LM模型表明政府投資增加會擠出民間投資；Aschauer理論說明二者是擠入關系�；仡檱鴥�(nèi)外學者對政府投資與民間投資的關系這一問題的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),諸多的研究并沒有產(chǎn)生一個被廣泛接受的結論。政府投資對民間投資是起到促進作用還是會抑制民間投資的發(fā)展,促進或者抑制的原因是什么,還需要學者們做更深的發(fā)掘。這一問題的答案對當前的中國的發(fā)展尤其意義非凡,經(jīng)濟新常態(tài)時期,既要保證經(jīng)濟增長速度又要提高經(jīng)濟發(fā)展質(zhì)量,政府有必要采取更加積極的財政政策來增加政府投資。但是,政府投資對民間投資會產(chǎn)生不確定的影響,相應的投資政策的實施必須以此為前提。本文首先分類梳理總結了已有的研究成果,然后選取我國1982年至2014年的總量經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析,利用stata統(tǒng)計軟件進行協(xié)整和VECM處理,得到政府投資對民間投資的長短期影響。研究表明,長期中發(fā)現(xiàn)引致作用,短期中則產(chǎn)生了擠出。隨后結合我國實際,分析了產(chǎn)生這種結果的深層次原因并提出了相應的政策建議。研究得出,(1)政府投資的規(guī)模要合理、結構要轉(zhuǎn)變(2)政府投資需從競爭性行業(yè)有序退出(3)要提高政府投資效率。當然,本文只是從宏觀總量上考查了二者的關系,學者們需要做進一步的研究來確定我國政府投資對民間投資到底存在擠入還是擠出效應、亦或是沒有關系,以更好的服務于財政政策的制定和實際經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the concept of investment is gradually known, investment began to play a more and more important role in national economic life. Investment, consumption and export are the "troika" that drives the rapid development of China's economy, in which investment is in an absolute strong position. Investment can be divided into government investment and non-government investment. Non-government investment mainly refers to non-government investment. The classical economic theories explain their relationship differently. The IS-LM model shows that the increase of government investment will squeeze out private investment. Aschauer theory shows that the two are crowding in relationship. Reviewing the research on the relationship between government investment and private investment at home and abroad, it is found that many studies have not produced a widely accepted conclusion. Whether the government investment promotes the private investment or will restrain the development of the private investment, what is the reason of promoting or restraining, still needs the scholars to do a deeper exploration. The answer to this question is of great significance to the development of China. In the new normal period of economy, it is necessary for the government to adopt more active fiscal policies to increase government investment, both to ensure the speed of economic growth and to improve the quality of economic development. However, government investment will have an uncertain impact on private investment, and the implementation of corresponding investment policies must be based on this premise. This paper firstly classifies and summarizes the existing research results, then selects China's total economic data from 1982 to 2014 for empirical analysis, and uses stata statistical software for co-integration and VECM processing. Get the long-term and short-term effect of government investment on non-government investment. Studies have shown that long-term discovery leads to extrusion in the short term. Then, combined with the reality of our country, this paper analyzes the deep-seated causes of this result and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. It is concluded that the scale of government investment should be reasonable and the structure should be changed. 2) the government investment should be withdrawn from competitive industries in an orderly manner) and the efficiency of government investment should be improved. Of course, this paper only examines the relationship between the two from the macro total amount. Scholars need to do further research to determine whether there is crowding in or crowding out effect of government investment on private investment, or whether it does not matter. In order to better serve the formulation of fiscal policy and the actual economic development.
【學位授予單位】：西北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F812.45;F124

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