本文選題：計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型 + 衛(wèi)生資源��； 參考：《天津醫(yī)科大學(xué)》2004年碩士論文

【摘要】：目的 衛(wèi)生資源配置問(wèn)題一直是世界各國(guó)衛(wèi)生界的熱門(mén)話題，如何做好微觀調(diào)整與宏觀調(diào)控、使衛(wèi)生事業(yè)發(fā)展與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)相協(xié)調(diào)，實(shí)現(xiàn)衛(wèi)生服務(wù)的總供求基本平衡，也是我國(guó)衛(wèi)生界一直致力研究的方向。本次研究旨在通過(guò)運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型(包括時(shí)間序列模型和經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型)對(duì)我國(guó)和天津市衛(wèi)生資源的人、財(cái)、物三方面進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并通過(guò)結(jié)構(gòu)分析，進(jìn)一步了解我國(guó)衛(wèi)生資源發(fā)展與我國(guó)人口、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)發(fā)展的關(guān)系，來(lái)探討計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型在衛(wèi)生資源相關(guān)研究中的應(yīng)用。 方法 第一部分：收集了1980-2000年全國(guó)醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)、衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)數(shù)進(jìn)行分析，首先采用時(shí)間序列模型中應(yīng)用范圍很廣泛的求和自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型即ARIMA(p，d，q)模型對(duì)該人、財(cái)、物三方面進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。然后建立起該三方面與人口、GDP發(fā)展關(guān)系的經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程，，利用該方程進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)、比較靜力學(xué)分析和彈性分析。 第二部分：收集了天津市1980-2000年全國(guó)醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)、衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型分別對(duì)其進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)和結(jié)構(gòu)分析。 并且利用2001、2002年收集的數(shù)據(jù)分別對(duì)全國(guó)和天津市衛(wèi)生資源三方面進(jìn)行了樣本期外預(yù)測(cè)。 結(jié)果 運(yùn)用ARIMA模型對(duì)全國(guó)醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)、衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，其平均相對(duì)誤差分別為0.0053、0.0046、0.0412。利用經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，平均相對(duì)誤差分別為0.019、0.012、0.015。ARIMA模型對(duì)天津市醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)、衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，其平均相對(duì)誤差分別為0.014、0.014、0.029。經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程預(yù)測(cè)，平均相對(duì)誤差分別為0.020、0.022、0.010。 天津醫(yī)科大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文 利用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程進(jìn)行衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)相對(duì)于GDP發(fā)展的彈性分析，其彈性 系數(shù)分別為0.24、0.46。 對(duì)2001年、2002年全國(guó)和天津市的醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床 位數(shù)進(jìn)行樣本期外預(yù)測(cè)。ARIMA模型預(yù)測(cè)2001年全國(guó)醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù) 人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)相對(duì)誤差分別為0.034、0.012，2002年相對(duì)誤差分別為0.067、 0.031。經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型預(yù)測(cè)2001年相對(duì)誤差分別為0.013、0.029。ARIMA 模型預(yù)測(cè)2001年天津市醫(yī)院、衛(wèi)生院衛(wèi)生技術(shù)人員數(shù)、床位數(shù)相對(duì)誤差分別 為0.015、0.024，2002年相對(duì)誤差分別為0.043、0.004。經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué) 模型預(yù)測(cè)2001年相對(duì)誤差分別為0.094、0.001。2002年相對(duì)誤差分別為 0.046、0.024。 結(jié)論在本次研究中利用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型中兩個(gè)有代表性的ARIMA模型和 經(jīng)典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程模型對(duì)衛(wèi)生資源的人、財(cái)、物三方面進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，均取 得了較滿意的結(jié)果。并利用建立起的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程進(jìn)行了結(jié)構(gòu)分析，由彈 性系數(shù)表明，天津衛(wèi)生事業(yè)經(jīng)費(fèi)相對(duì)于GDP的彈性變化高于全國(guó)總體水平。 綜上所述，計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型在衛(wèi)生資源的研究，尤其在衛(wèi)生資源發(fā)展的 預(yù)測(cè)和與社會(huì)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系研究中發(fā)揮了明顯的優(yōu)勢(shì)。在本次研究 中，時(shí)間序列方法在衛(wèi)生資源研究的預(yù)測(cè)中顯示了較好的精度，建立起的經(jīng) 典計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方程利用嶺回歸方法對(duì)衛(wèi)生資源的預(yù)測(cè)也取得了較滿意的結(jié)果， 且通過(guò)該方程可了解我國(guó)衛(wèi)生資源與社會(huì)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系，可以通過(guò) 對(duì)該關(guān)系的了解，指導(dǎo)我國(guó)衛(wèi)生資源的發(fā)展方向，為實(shí)現(xiàn)衛(wèi)生資源與社會(huì)的 協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供方法上的指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:Objective health resources allocation problem has always been a hot topic in the world health community. How to adjust the micro adjustment and macro control to coordinate the development of health services with the national economy and realize the basic balance of the total supply and demand of health services is also the direction of our health community. This study aims to use econometrics. The model (including time series model and classic econometric model) is used to predict three aspects of human, financial and material resources in China and Tianjin city. Through structural analysis, we can further understand the relationship between the development of health resources and the development of China's population and GDP, and discuss the model of econometrics in health resources. The application in the study.
Method first part: collect 1980-2000 years national hospital, health hospital health personnel number, bed number, health fund number analysis, first use the time series model of a very wide range of application range and autoregressive moving average model ARIMA (P, D, q) model of the person, money, material, three aspects of the prediction. The classical econometric equations of the three aspects and the relationship between population and GDP development are predicted by this equation, and the static analysis and elastic analysis are compared.
The second part: the 1980-2000 year National Hospital of Tianjin was collected. The number of health personnel, the number of health workers, the bed number, and the econometrics model were predicted and analyzed.
And using the data collected over the past 20012002 years, we conducted an out of sample forecast for three aspects of health resources in the whole country and Tianjin.
Results the ARIMA model was used to predict the number of health technicians, the number of health workers, the number of beds and the number of health services. The average relative error was 0.0053,0.0046,0.0412. using the classical econometric equation, and the average relative error was 0.019,0.012,0.015.ARIMA model to the hospital of Tianjin and the hospital. The number of health technicians, the number of beds and the number of health undertakings were predicted. The average relative error was predicted by the classical econometric equation of 0.014,0.014,0.029., and the average relative error was 0.020,0.022,0.010., respectively.
Master's degree thesis of Medical University Of Tianjin
Using the econometrics equation to analyze the elasticity of health funding relative to GDP development and its elasticity.
The coefficients are 0.24,0.46.
For hospitals in 2001 and 2002, the number of health technicians in hospitals and hospitals in Tianjin and China
The.ARIMA model was used to predict the health technology of national hospitals and health centers in 2001.
The relative error of number of beds and number of beds was 0.034,0.0122002, respectively, and the relative error was 0.067.
0.031. the classical econometric model predicts that the relative error in 2001 is 0.013,0.029.ARIMA
The model predicts the relative error of the number of health technicians and the number of beds in Tianjin hospital, 2001.
For 0.015,0.0242002, the relative error is 0.043,0.004., classical econometrics.
The relative error of model prediction in 2001 is 0.094,0.001.2002 respectively.
0.046,0.024.
Conclusion in this study, two representative ARIMA models in econometric models are used.
The classical econometric equation model predicts three aspects of health resources, namely, people, money and goods.
A satisfactory result is obtained. Structural analysis is made by using the established econometrics equation.
Sex coefficient shows that the elasticity of health expenditure in Tianjin is higher than that of GDP, which is higher than that of the whole country.
To sum up, econometric models are used in health resources research, especially in the development of health resources.
The prediction has played an obvious advantage in the study of the relationship between social population and economic development.
The time series method shows better accuracy in the prediction of health resources research.
The canonical econometric equation has also yielded satisfactory results in the prediction of health resources using the ridge regression method.
The equation can be used to understand the relationship between health resources, social population and economic development in China.
To understand the relationship and guide the development direction of health resources in China, in order to achieve health resources and society.
Coordinate development provides guidance on methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津醫(yī)科大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2004
【分類號(hào)】：R197.1

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