本文選題：商業(yè)銀行 + 我國影子銀行體系��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：2015年3月,河北最大的擔(dān)保公司河北融投擔(dān)保集團(tuán)陷入破產(chǎn)重組的窘境,由其擔(dān)保的500多億債權(quán)的擔(dān)保責(zé)任因而暫時(shí)懸置。此次多米諾骨牌式的擔(dān)保風(fēng)波涉及到了信托、銀行、券商、基金和P2P等50家機(jī)構(gòu),紛紛陷入兌付危機(jī)的窘境。河北融投的身陷囹圄令人不得不關(guān)注我國影子銀行的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。事實(shí)上,類似河北融投的國內(nèi)很多信托產(chǎn)品都是通過銀行渠道進(jìn)行分銷的,并且在把這些產(chǎn)品推銷給投資者時(shí)說成是能夠替代傳統(tǒng)存款的高收益理財(cái)產(chǎn)品。有著商業(yè)銀行充當(dāng)后盾,投資者自然放松警惕,忽視了投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而選擇這類影子銀行產(chǎn)品。在利率市場化進(jìn)程加快、信貸收縮以及我國金融抑制的背景下,國內(nèi)影子銀行得到了適宜的生存土壤,其規(guī)模在近幾年呈現(xiàn)出井噴式增長。中國社科院報(bào)告稱,2014年我國影子銀行規(guī)模高達(dá)27萬億元人民幣,約占我國銀行體系總資產(chǎn)的20%。而同年金融穩(wěn)定理事會(FSB)也聲稱,中國影子銀行的規(guī)模在全球中排名第三。我國影子銀行的發(fā)展時(shí)間之短但速度之快令人憂喜參半。因?yàn)橛白鱼y行的發(fā)展就像一把雙刃劍,一方面,影子銀行能夠通過靈活多變的借貸活動與傳統(tǒng)銀行競爭,拓展國內(nèi)投融資渠道,在一定程度上緩解了信貸供給不足和融資需求旺盛的矛盾。同時(shí),影子銀行的發(fā)展也為我國金融體系注入新鮮血液,促進(jìn)金融結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整,帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,推動利率市場化進(jìn)程。另一方面,影子銀行作為新生事物,又有其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)生性,規(guī)避監(jiān)管的同時(shí)通過信用擴(kuò)張而降低了貨幣政策效果,影響了我國商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性,甚至給整個(gè)金融體系的健康發(fā)展埋下一定的安全隱患。由于影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)的交叉性和隱蔽性,我們不能直接觀測到其準(zhǔn)確規(guī)模,因而也不能預(yù)估其蘊(yùn)藏的具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,人民幣進(jìn)入加速貶值通道,股市一蹶不振,信用違約頻發(fā),國際社會也緊盯中國影子銀行的發(fā)展,甚至唱衰中國金融體系。然而中國政府對此似乎勝券在握,在去年的政府工作報(bào)告中稱今后將加強(qiáng)對影子銀行的監(jiān)管。基于對影子銀行話題的興趣以及對我國銀行體系甚至金融體系穩(wěn)定性的關(guān)注,本文擬就目前中國影子銀行發(fā)展的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。探究我國影子銀行對商業(yè)銀行體系的影響方式及影響程度,為相關(guān)研究和決策提供參考。本文主要包括六部分,文章結(jié)構(gòu)和研究思路如下：第一章是緒論,首先闡述了本文的選題背景和研究意義,然后對國內(nèi)外影子銀行的相關(guān)理論和文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行回顧和梳理。明確本文采用了定性分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的研究方法。指出本文可能的兩個(gè)創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)：一是使用面板數(shù)據(jù),克服了影子銀行樣本量少的缺陷；二是在測算影子銀行規(guī)模時(shí)采用較窄的統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑,這部分影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)與商業(yè)銀行聯(lián)系緊密,更有研究價(jià)值。第二章是研究的理論基礎(chǔ),首先包括影子銀行及影子銀行體系的概述,總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外對影子銀行的概念和分類的界定,初步分析了我國影子銀行的特點(diǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然后對商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性基本理論進(jìn)行探討,概述前人對銀行穩(wěn)定性的評估方法,并分析了影子銀行對商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性影響的作用機(jī)制,為后面的實(shí)證研究打基礎(chǔ)。第三章根據(jù)第二章對影子銀行概念的界定和類型的劃分,在參考現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,確定了本文所討論的基于較窄口徑的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù),包括銀行理財(cái)產(chǎn)品、委托貸款、信托貸款和未貼現(xiàn)的銀行承兌匯票。這四部分的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)的共同特點(diǎn)是,都與傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行聯(lián)系緊密,可以歸類為傳統(tǒng)銀行內(nèi)部的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù),因此對于研究影子銀行對商業(yè)銀行體系的影響更具有參考價(jià)值。在確定了我國影子銀行統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑的基礎(chǔ)上,本章分析了銀行理財(cái)產(chǎn)品、委托貸款、信托貸款和未貼現(xiàn)的銀行承兌匯票的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并分別測算了它們的規(guī)模。最后通過加總計(jì)算出2002-2015年我國影子銀行的絕對規(guī)模,為后面實(shí)證所需的影子銀行相對規(guī)模提供數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。第四章則是在前文對商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮商業(yè)銀行多重影響因素,并結(jié)合我國實(shí)際情況,選取了三個(gè)方面共計(jì)11項(xiàng)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析。分別包括以GDP增長率等3項(xiàng)指標(biāo)為代表的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、以M2增長率等3項(xiàng)指標(biāo)為代表金融環(huán)境因素,和以資本充足率和不良貸款率等5項(xiàng)指標(biāo)為代表的銀行運(yùn)營狀況。采用“指標(biāo)映射區(qū)間打分法”計(jì)算出單項(xiàng)指標(biāo)得分,再按照三大類指標(biāo)分別占20%、30%、50%的權(quán)重加權(quán)平均計(jì)算出2000-2015年間我國商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)。第五章首先從正反兩面著手,定性分析了我國影子銀行對商業(yè)銀行體系穩(wěn)定性的影響。然后根據(jù)前兩章統(tǒng)計(jì)測算出的我國影子銀行規(guī)模和商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。在實(shí)證分析部分,本文選取2002-2015年我國影子銀行相對規(guī)模(影子銀行絕對規(guī)模/GDP)作為解釋變量,選取我國17家主要商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)作為被解釋變量,另外還添加了GDP增長率、M2增長率以及CPI指數(shù)作為控制變量,以及滯后一期的影子銀行相對規(guī)模作為滯后項(xiàng),通過面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,利用Eviews計(jì)量軟件進(jìn)行回歸分析。第六章在定性分析及實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上得出本文的結(jié)論,并基于結(jié)論提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。本文的主要結(jié)論是,在我國目前的金融環(huán)境下,利率市場化改革尚未完成,融資結(jié)構(gòu)比較單一,金融機(jī)構(gòu)的多元化程度不足,狹義的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)對銀行穩(wěn)定性有促進(jìn)作用。因?yàn)槠淇梢宰鳛閭鹘y(tǒng)銀行信貸的補(bǔ)充,有效緩解中小企業(yè)融資難題,提高資金利用效率,推進(jìn)我國利率市場化進(jìn)程；同時(shí)拓展了商業(yè)銀行的表外業(yè)務(wù),擴(kuò)大了銀行中間業(yè)務(wù)收入,為銀行的業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新提供了動力。但是從長期來看,影子銀行的發(fā)展會導(dǎo)致銀行脫媒現(xiàn)象加劇,對銀行傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)的盈利能力和議價(jià)能力產(chǎn)生沖擊,而且影子銀行會削弱國家的宏觀調(diào)控政策效果,弱化監(jiān)管當(dāng)局對于商業(yè)銀行的監(jiān)管效果。并且由于狹義影子銀行使用銀行渠道和銀行資源開展業(yè)務(wù),一旦發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會通過業(yè)務(wù)鏈直接或間接傳導(dǎo)給銀行,這些都會削弱銀行的穩(wěn)定性。所以對待我國影子銀行,既不能消極回避,盲目抑制,也不能放任不管,任其發(fā)展。應(yīng)從我國實(shí)際情況出發(fā),因勢利導(dǎo),趨利避害,引導(dǎo)影子銀行有序地服務(wù)于社會公眾和企業(yè)的投融資需求。在撰寫本文期間,筆者通過閱讀大量的文獻(xiàn)資料,針對影子銀行問題提出有實(shí)際意義的觀點(diǎn)和建議。但限于研究水平和文筆能力,筆者在表述某些觀點(diǎn)時(shí)難免顯得粗淺,還請老師在閱讀過程中多多包涵指正。
[Abstract]:In March 2015, Hebei's largest Guarantee Corporation, Hebei Rong investment security group, fell into the dilemma of bankruptcy restructuring, and the security responsibility for about 50000000000 of its secured claims was temporarily suspended. The Domino style security turmoil involved trust, banks, securities firms, funds and P2P and other 50 institutions, falling into the predicament of the cash crisis. Hebei melted In fact, many of the domestic trust products, similar to Hebei, are distributed through bank channels and are sold to investors as a high-yield financial product that can replace traditional deposits. In the background of the acceleration of the interest rate marketization process, the credit contraction and the financial restraining of our country, the domestic shadow banks have obtained the suitable survival soil in the recent years. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that in 2014, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that The size of the country's shadow bank is up to 27 trillion yuan, accounting for about 20%. of the total assets of the banking system in China and the financial stability Council (FSB) in the same year claimed that the size of the shadow Bank of China ranked third in the world. On the one hand, the shadow bank can compete with traditional banks through flexible and changeable lending activities and expand the domestic investment and financing channels. To a certain extent, it alleviates the contradiction between the shortage of credit supply and the exuberant financing demand. At the same time, the development of the shadow bank also injects fresh blood to the financial system of our country, and promotes the optimization and adjustment of the financial structure. On the other hand, as a new thing, the shadow bank, as a new thing, has its endogeneity of risk, evading supervision and reducing the effect of monetary policy through credit expansion, affecting the stability of our commercial banks, and even burying certain security risks for the healthy development of the whole financial system. With the cross and concealment of the shadow banking business, we can not directly observe its accurate scale, and therefore can not predict its specific risks. As China's economic growth slows down, the RMB enters the accelerated devaluation channel, the stock market has fallen down, the credit default is frequent, and the international society is also stating the development of the Chinese shadow bank and even sings down. China's financial system. However, the Chinese government seems to be a winner. In the government work report last year, it said it would strengthen the shadow banking regulation. Based on the interest in the topic of shadow banking and the attention to the stability of the banking system and even the financial system in China, the relevant data on the development of China's shadow banking are proposed. This paper mainly includes six parts, the article structure and the research ideas are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction, first of all, the background and significance of this paper are expounded, and then the shadow banking at home and abroad is discussed. The relevant theories and literature are reviewed and reviewed. It is clear that this paper uses the combination of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis. It points out the two possible innovations in this paper: first, the use of panel data to overcome the shortcomings of the small sample size of the shadow bank; and the two is to use a narrower statistical caliber in the measurement of the size of the shadow bank, this part The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the research. Firstly, it includes the outline of shadow banking and shadow banking system, summarizes the definition of the concept and classification of shadow banking both at home and abroad, and preliminarily analyzes the characteristics and risks of the shadow banking in China. Then, the stability of the commercial banks. The basic theory is discussed, the former evaluation method of bank stability is summarized, and the effect mechanism of shadow bank on the stability of commercial banks is analyzed. The third chapter is based on the definition and classification of the concept of shadow banking according to the second chapter, and on the basis of the existing research results, it is determined. The shadow banking business based on the narrower caliber is discussed in this paper, including bank financial products, entrustment loans, trust loans and non discounted bank acceptance bills. The common characteristics of these four parts are that they are closely related to the traditional commercial banks and can be classified as the shadow banking business within the traditional banks. This chapter analyses the development status of bank financial products, entrusted loans, trust loans and non discounted bank acceptance drafts on the basis of determining the statistical caliber of China's shadow banks, and calculates their scale respectively. Finally, the total calculation of 2002- is calculated. The absolute scale of China's shadow banking in 2015 provides a data base for the relative size of the shadow banking required by the latter. The fourth chapter is on the basis of the research on the stability theory of commercial banks, considering the multiple factors of commercial banks, and combining with the actual situation of our country, the three aspects are selected to be analyzed in a total number of 11 indicators. The macro economic factors represented by 3 indexes such as GDP growth rate are represented by 3 indexes such as the growth rate of M2, and the bank operation status represented by 5 indexes, such as the capital adequacy ratio and the bad loan rate, etc., using the "index mapping interval scoring method" to calculate the score of the single index, and then according to the three categories. The weight weighted average of 20%, 30% and 50% respectively calculates the stability comprehensive index of China's commercial banks in 2000-2015 years. The fifth chapter begins with both positive and negative sides, and analyzes the influence of the shadow banking on the stability of the commercial bank system in China. Then the size of the shadow banking and the stability of the commercial banks in China are calculated according to the first two chapters. In the empirical analysis, this paper selects the relative scale of shadow banking (/GDP) as an explanatory variable in 2002-2015 years, and selects the 17 main commercial banks' stability index as the explanatory variable, and also adds the GDP growth rate, the M2 growth rate and the CPI index. As a control variable and the lag phase of the relative size of the shadow bank as a lagging item, the regression analysis is carried out by the Eviews measurement software through the panel data model. The sixth chapter draws the conclusion of this paper on the basis of qualitative analysis and empirical research, and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions based on the conclusion. The main conclusion of this paper is in our country. Under the current financial environment, the reform of the interest rate marketization has not been completed, the financing structure is relatively simple, the diversification of the financial institutions is insufficient. The narrow sense of the shadow banking business can promote the stability of the bank. Because it can be used as a supplement to the traditional bank credit, it can effectively alleviate the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises, improve the efficiency of capital utilization and promote the utilization of funds. The process of interest rate marketization in China has expanded the off balance sheet business of commercial banks, expanded the middle business income of the bank, and provided the impetus for the bank's business innovation. However, in the long run, the development of the shadow bank will lead to the aggravation of the disintermediation of the bank, the impact on the profitability and bargaining power of the traditional banking business, and the shadow of the shadow banking. The sub bank weakens the effect of the country's macroeconomic control policy and weakens the regulatory effect of the regulatory authorities on commercial banks. And because the narrow shadow banks use banking channels and bank resources to carry out business, once the risks will be directly or indirectly transmitted to the banks through the business chain, these will weaken the stability of the banks. The shadow Bank of the country can neither be passive avoidance, blind restraint, nor let it be allowed to develop. We should proceed from the actual situation of our country, take advantage of the situation, lead the shadow bank to serve the public and the enterprises' investment and financing demand in order. During the writing of this article, I read a large number of documents and aimed at the shadow bank. There are practical points and suggestions. But limited to the level of study and the ability to write, the author seems to be superficial when I express some views, and ask the teacher to correct more in the process of reading.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.3

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5 王s，

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