發(fā)布時間：2018-04-23 09:54

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 + 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)　； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長相對遲緩,特別是自2012年以來,其經(jīng)濟(jì)增速更是連續(xù)多年處于全國墊底水平,呈現(xiàn)"斷崖式"下跌的局面。與此同時,東北地區(qū)的人口形勢也發(fā)生了劇烈變化:一方面,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)迅速轉(zhuǎn)變,老齡化發(fā)展速度遠(yuǎn)快于全國平均水平,且生育率極低,呈現(xiàn)出"少子化"的特點(diǎn);另一方面,人口流失規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大且呈加速發(fā)展態(tài)勢,其人口在全國所占比重迅速下降。在此背景下,探討東北地區(qū)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與人口遷移的現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢,研究人口因素與東北經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間相互作用機(jī)理,對準(zhǔn)確認(rèn)識東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的誘因,促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有一定的理論價值與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文對已有文獻(xiàn)中有關(guān)東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)地位下滑的原因進(jìn)行了梳理,發(fā)現(xiàn)以往學(xué)者們往往把東北經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的遲滯歸咎于制度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面的原因,而忽視了人口因素對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。在東北地區(qū)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生劇烈變化、人口流失規(guī)模持續(xù)擴(kuò)大的背景下,忽視上述因素,將無法準(zhǔn)確解釋東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長下滑的原因�；诖�,本文的研究聚焦于人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、人口遷移對東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。在對東北地區(qū)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)因素變動進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文構(gòu)建了擴(kuò)展的索洛增長模型,在原模型中引入了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與人口凈遷移率變量進(jìn)行了理論推導(dǎo),求出平衡增長路徑上的人均資本和人均產(chǎn)出,發(fā)現(xiàn)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與人口遷移會對人均產(chǎn)出增速造成影響�；诖�,本文采用東北地區(qū)40個地級市的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證估計(jì),得出的主要結(jié)論有:①伴隨戶籍改變的人口凈遷出與不伴隨戶籍改變的人口凈流出都對東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生顯著不利影響,且與不伴隨戶籍改變的人口凈流出相比,伴隨戶籍改變的人口凈遷出所造成的不利影響更大;②人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長高度相關(guān),不同年齡段人口對東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響不同,其中35-44歲年齡段的人口對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用最大,而過高的人口撫養(yǎng)比會削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力,但其影響在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平不同的地區(qū)會略有差異;③針對其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的計(jì)量分析表明投資率和勞動力參與率的變化沒有像預(yù)期中的那樣對東北經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生明顯的促進(jìn)作用,東北地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有高度的慣性,且出現(xiàn)了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂現(xiàn)象;④經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r也會同樣影響到人口遷移流動,較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平及對外開放程度有助于人口流入,落后的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和過高的投資率對人口流入則施加了明顯的阻力�；趯�(shí)證分析結(jié)果,本文提出了兩方面政策建議:①東北地區(qū)要及時科學(xué)綜合地應(yīng)對人口老齡化,適度提高生育率,延遲退休并開發(fā)老年人力資源,促進(jìn)充分就業(yè);②東北地區(qū)要努力扭轉(zhuǎn)人口流失的局面,放寬戶籍限制,吸引人口遷入,調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),增強(qiáng)就業(yè)吸引力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economic growth in Northeast China has been relatively slow, especially since 2012, its economic growth rate has been at the bottom of the national level for many years, showing a "cliff-like" situation. At the same time, the population situation in Northeast China has also changed dramatically: on the one hand, the age structure of the population changes rapidly, the aging development rate is far faster than the national average, and the fertility rate is extremely low, showing the characteristics of "minority children"; On the other hand, the scale of population loss is expanding and developing rapidly, and the proportion of population in the whole country is decreasing rapidly. In this context, the present situation and development trend of population age structure and population migration in Northeast China are discussed, and the interaction mechanism between population factors and economic growth in Northeast China is studied. Promoting the sustainable development of regional economy has certain theoretical value and practical significance. This paper combs the causes of the economic status decline in Northeast China in the literature, and finds that scholars often attribute the delay in economic growth in Northeast China to institutional, industrial structure and other reasons. And ignored the population factor to the local economic growth influence. Under the background that the age structure of population in Northeast China changes dramatically and the scale of population loss continues to expand, ignoring the above factors will not accurately explain the reasons for the economic growth decline in Northeast China. Based on this, this paper focuses on the age structure of population and the impact of population migration on economic growth in Northeast China. Based on the analysis of the changes of population and economic factors in Northeast China, this paper constructs an extended Solow growth model, and introduces the population age structure and the population net migration rate variables into the original model for theoretical derivation. Find out the per capita capital and output in the balanced growth path, and find that the age structure and migration of population will have an impact on the growth rate of per capita output. Based on this, this paper uses the panel data of 40 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China to carry out empirical estimates. The main conclusions are that both the net emigration of population with the change of household registration and the net outflow of population without the change of household registration have a significant negative impact on the economic growth of Northeast China, and compared with the net outflow of population without the change of household registration, The negative impact caused by the net migration of the population with the change of household registration is even greater. The age structure of the population is highly correlated with the economic growth of the Northeast region, and the influence of different age groups on the economic growth of the Northeast region is different. The population of 35-44 years old has the most important role in promoting economic growth, while the excessive dependency ratio will weaken the impetus of economic growth, but its influence will be slightly different in different regions with different economic development level. (3) the econometric analysis of other economic variables shows that the changes of investment rate and labor force participation rate have not obviously promoted the economic growth in Northeast China as expected, and the economic growth in Northeast China has a high degree of inertia. Moreover, the convergence of regional economic growth will also affect the migration of population, and a higher level of economic development and opening to the outside world will contribute to the inflow of population. Backward industrial structure and excessive investment rate exert obvious resistance to population inflow. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward two policy suggestions: to deal with the aging of population scientifically and comprehensively, to raise the fertility rate moderately, to delay retirement and to develop the human resources of the elderly to promote full employment; (2) Northeast China should make great efforts to reverse the situation of population loss, relax the household registration restrictions, attract people to move in, adjust the economic structure, and enhance the attraction of employment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2

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