電商數(shù)據(jù)納入CPI調查的方法探索
本文選題:居民消費價格指數(shù) + 電子商務; 參考:《浙江工商大學》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:進入21世紀后,隨著互聯(lián)網信息與網絡安全技術的發(fā)展,新一輪的計算機技術革命正在進行。在大數(shù)據(jù)時代的背景下,經濟、生活等各領域都面臨新的機遇與挑戰(zhàn)。就經濟領域來說,我們傳統(tǒng)的消費習慣正被快速發(fā)展的電子商務所改變,傳統(tǒng)經濟結構也隨之改變。2016年上半年我國網絡零售市場交易規(guī)模占到社會消費品零售總額的14.8%,仍在持續(xù)增長。在技術的不斷進步中,顯然,傳統(tǒng)處理和計算數(shù)據(jù)的方式已不能滿足時代發(fā)展的需要。依傳統(tǒng)編制方式編制出的價格指數(shù)對價格波動趨勢的指示和參考作用也會有很大偏差。居民消費價格指數(shù)(CPI)—直以來都作為衡量一個國家經濟是否出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹的主要指標,合理的居民消費價格指數(shù)是國家經濟體穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展的前提。但是,在電子商務的沖擊下,經濟結構和居民消費習慣的改變使得傳統(tǒng)的CPI編制方法已不能適應新的經濟模式。傳統(tǒng)CPI編制沒有將電子商務商品價格納入到指數(shù)編制的價格采集范圍,使得編制的指數(shù)與居民實際生活消費感受有較大差距,降低CPI的代表性和說服力。在此背景下,本文嘗試探索將電商價格納入現(xiàn)有CPI核算體系,分析其必要性與可行性,結合實際采集到的電商商品的價格,對指數(shù)進行試算。本文首先,介紹了電商數(shù)據(jù)納入CPI核算方法探索的研究背景、研究意義及主要研究思路,并對所查所閱文獻進行整理歸納和綜述。其次,分析我國現(xiàn)行CPI編制中存在的問題,從代表規(guī)格品的選擇需要擴大選擇范圍并及時更新,到權重設置需要更加合理且公開透明,再到代表品價格的采集還需提高效率。再次,論證將電商商品價格納入現(xiàn)有CPI核算體系的必要性和可行性。網絡購物在居民日常消費中的地位正變得越來越重要,并且大部分現(xiàn)有CPI核算的代表規(guī)格品在各大電商平臺中都能找到,而且電商價格的納入會使得商品價格采集更有效率,價格采集成本會降低。然后,以浙江省為例,闡述其電子商務近幾年發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及未來發(fā)展趨勢。最后,結合浙江省消費偏好和電商數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計,選擇代表規(guī)格品,選擇代表品價格采集的電商平臺。根據(jù)代表規(guī)格品實際操作采集到代表品的網絡銷售價格,嘗試將采集到的價格納入到現(xiàn)有CPI的計算中去。本文針對現(xiàn)有CPI核算體系中的問題,提出將電商價格納入CPI核算的思路,并對具體納入的核算方法進行探索。
[Abstract]:After entering the 21st century, with the development of Internet information and network security technology, a new round of computer technology revolution is under way. Under the background of big data era, economy, life and other fields are facing new opportunities and challenges. In the economic sphere, our traditional consumption habits are being changed by the rapid development of e-commerce. The traditional economic structure has also changed. In the first half of 2016, China's online retail market accounted for 14.8% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, and is still growing. With the development of technology, it is obvious that the traditional methods of data processing and computing can not meet the needs of the development of the times. There is also a great deviation in the indication and reference function of the price index compiled according to the traditional compilation method to the trend of price fluctuation. The consumer price index (CPI) has been regarded as the main index to measure whether there is inflation or not in a country's economy. A reasonable consumer price index is the premise of stable, sustainable and healthy development of a country's economy. However, under the impact of electronic commerce, the change of economic structure and consumption habits makes the traditional CPI programming method can not adapt to the new economic model. The traditional CPI does not bring the price of electronic commerce commodity into the price collection range of the index compilation, which makes the compilation index have a big gap with the residents' real life consumption feeling, and reduces the representativeness and persuasion of CPI. In this context, this paper attempts to explore the e-commerce price into the existing CPI accounting system, analyzes its necessity and feasibility, combined with the actual collection of e-commerce commodity prices, to try to calculate the index. First of all, this paper introduces the research background, significance and main research ideas of the research of e-commerce data into CPI accounting method, and summarizes and summarizes the literature. Secondly, this paper analyzes the existing problems in the current CPI compilation in China, from the need to expand the selection range of representative specifications and update them in time, to the weight setting need to be more reasonable and open and transparent, and then to the collection of representative price still need to improve the efficiency. Thirdly, the necessity and feasibility of bringing e-commerce commodity prices into the existing CPI accounting system are demonstrated. The status of online shopping in the daily consumption of residents is becoming more and more important, and most of the representative specifications of existing CPI accounting can be found in all major e-commerce platforms, and the inclusion of e-commerce prices will make the collection of commodity prices more efficient. The cost of price collection will be reduced. Then, take Zhejiang Province as an example, expound its electronic commerce development present situation and future development trend in recent years. Finally, based on the consumption preference and e-commerce statistics in Zhejiang Province, the representative specifications and the price collection platform are selected. According to the actual operation of the representative product, the network sales price of the representative product is collected, and the collected price is tried to be incorporated into the calculation of the existing CPI. Aiming at the problems in the current CPI accounting system, this paper puts forward the idea of bringing the e-commerce price into the CPI accounting, and probes into the specific accounting methods.
【學位授予單位】:浙江工商大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:F726;F724.6
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