本文選題：內(nèi)含價值 + 剩余收益��； 參考：《上海國家會計學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了快速增長,目前已發(fā)展成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演著日趨重要的角色。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長,人們生活水平逐漸提高,人們對保險行業(yè)有了新的認(rèn)識,對保險需求也飛速增長�！靶聡畻l”、“償二代”等政策也大大推動了保險行業(yè)的發(fā)展。據(jù)保監(jiān)會統(tǒng)計,2012-2014年總保費(fèi)復(fù)合年增長率為20%,2012-2014年新業(yè)務(wù)價值復(fù)合年增長率為12%,在競爭日益激烈的社會,保險行業(yè)越來越活躍,其投資價值評估也就愈加受到企業(yè)外部投資者和內(nèi)部管理者的關(guān)注。因此,如何評估保險行業(yè)的價值也受到愈來愈多的關(guān)注。由于保險行業(yè)的特殊性,不同于一般的金融行業(yè),其業(yè)務(wù)具有長期性,所以一般的估值模型并不適用。本文采用理論分析和案例研究相結(jié)合的方法,選定H保險公司作為研究案例,首先介紹論文的研究背景,研究意義,內(nèi)含價值模型和奧爾森剩余收益模型的理論基礎(chǔ),再分別將兩個估值模型應(yīng)用于該公司的價值評估中,通過分析兩種模型不同的適用條件,設(shè)定假設(shè),以及具體應(yīng)用時的優(yōu)點和缺點,得出案例結(jié)論。接著,我們將奧爾森剩余收益模型分別應(yīng)用于在A股已上市的四家保險公司,通過實際具體的股價反推剩余收益的增長率,并與歷史的剩余收益增長率對比,發(fā)現(xiàn)是可以實現(xiàn)的。最后,根據(jù)論文研究的結(jié)果,得出結(jié)論,指出不足并提出建議。通過研究分析,我們可以得出奧爾森剩余模型應(yīng)用廣泛,盡管保險行業(yè)的自身具有特殊性,總體來說,該模型適用于評估保險公司的價值。相比而言,內(nèi)含價值考慮了保險公司繳納保費(fèi)周期較長的特性,考慮了未來可獲得的利潤,適合用于評估保險公司的價值,但實際可操作性較差。最后,本文從如何選擇適合保險公司估值模型,以及如何提高保險行業(yè)信息披露方面提出微薄的建議。
[Abstract]:China's economy, which has experienced rapid growth in recent years, has developed into the world's second-largest economy, playing an increasingly important role in the global economy. With the sustained and rapid growth of our economy, people's living standards have been gradually improved, people have a new understanding of the insurance industry, and the demand for insurance has also increased rapidly. Policies such as "ten new countries" and "paying for the second generation" have also greatly promoted the development of the insurance industry. According to the statistics of the Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), the compound annual growth rate of total premiums in 2012-2014 is 20%, the compound annual growth rate of new business value in 2012-2014 is 12%. In an increasingly competitive society, the insurance industry is becoming more and more active. The evaluation of investment value is paid more and more attention by external investors and internal managers. Therefore, how to evaluate the value of the insurance industry is also getting more and more attention. Because of the particularity of insurance industry, different from the general financial industry, its business has a long-term nature, so the general valuation model is not applicable. In this paper, we choose H insurance company as a case study by combining theoretical analysis and case study. Firstly, we introduce the research background, research significance, the theoretical basis of the implicit value model and Olson's residual income model. Then the two valuation models are applied to the valuation of the company respectively. By analyzing the different applicable conditions of the two models, setting up assumptions, and the advantages and disadvantages of the specific application, the paper draws the conclusion of the case. Then, we apply the Olson residual income model to the four A-share listed insurance companies to push back the growth rate of residual income through the actual stock price, and compare it with the historical growth rate of residual income. Discovery is achievable. Finally, according to the results of the paper, draw a conclusion, point out the deficiencies and put forward suggestions. Through research and analysis, we can conclude that Olson's residual model is widely used, although the insurance industry has its own particularity, in general, this model is suitable for evaluating the value of insurance companies. In contrast, the intrinsic value takes into account the long premium period of the insurance company and the future profit, which is suitable for evaluating the value of the insurance company, but the actual operation is poor. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to choose a suitable valuation model for insurance companies and how to improve the disclosure of information in insurance industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海國家會計學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.3

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