本文選題：商品房平均價(jià)格 + 計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型��； 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2006年碩士論文

【摘要】： 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長起到了舉足輕重的作用,在房地產(chǎn)業(yè)日益繁榮的今天,商品房價(jià)格連續(xù)數(shù)年的快速上漲使房屋價(jià)格問題成為廣大居民關(guān)注的一個熱點(diǎn)。但理論界對商品房價(jià)格問題的研究卻很不充分,由于沒有一個可靠的模型可以用來做定量的分析,許多有關(guān)商品房價(jià)格問題的探討與爭議也僅停留在定性分析的層次上。 本文正是針對這一問題,以計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)為工具,依據(jù)供求關(guān)系分析了諸多因素對商品房價(jià)格的影響,在此基礎(chǔ)上對商品房價(jià)格模型問題做出了創(chuàng)新性和探索性的研究。主要內(nèi)容為: 1.依據(jù)供求關(guān)系,本文通過用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析諸多可以直接量化的因素對商品房價(jià)格的影響,建立了一個商品房價(jià)格的單方程計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型并對其有效性做了全面的檢驗(yàn)。 2.在分析了房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期因素和政策因素對商品房價(jià)格的影響基礎(chǔ)上,通過引入房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期影響因子的方式對商品房價(jià)格模型進(jìn)行了修正,建立了一個考慮房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和政策因素影響的商品房價(jià)格模型。對該模型的各種有效性檢驗(yàn)表明,這是一個可以用來分析商品房價(jià)格問題的可靠模型。 3.通過商品房價(jià)格泡沫的評價(jià)指標(biāo)分析得出了現(xiàn)階段我國商品房價(jià)格在總體上不存在明顯“虛高”的結(jié)論。利用本文的模型分析了商品房平均價(jià)格走勢等熱點(diǎn)問題,指出:如果房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資始終保持2000年以來的增長速度,必將出現(xiàn)商品房供大于求,商品房平均價(jià)格下跌的局面,并依據(jù)本文的模型計(jì)算出了比較適當(dāng)?shù)姆康禺a(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增長速度。 4.在總結(jié)全文的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一系列有價(jià)值的建議和啟示,這些建議和啟示對投資者在商品房市場中的投資活動和政府部門出臺新政策來調(diào)控商品房市場都有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the real estate industry plays an important role in the sustained economic growth of China.The price of commercial housing has been rising rapidly for several years.However, there is not enough research on the price of commercial housing in the theoretical circle. Because there is no reliable model to do quantitative analysis, many discussions and controversies about the price of commercial housing only stay on the level of qualitative analysis.In this paper, econometrics is used as a tool to analyze the influence of many factors on the price of commercial housing according to the relationship between supply and demand. On the basis of this, the paper makes an innovative and exploratory study on the price model of commercial housing.The main contents are:1.According to the relationship between supply and demand, this paper analyzes the influence of many factors which can be directly quantified by econometrics, and establishes a single equation econometric model of the price of commercial housing and makes a comprehensive test on its validity.2.On the basis of analyzing the influence of the real estate economic cycle factors and the policy factors on the commercial housing prices, this paper modifies the real estate price model by introducing the real estate economic cycle factors.In this paper, a real estate price model considering the impact of real estate economic cycle and policy factors is established.The validity tests of this model show that it is a reliable model for analyzing the price of commercial housing.3.Through the analysis of the evaluation index of the commodity housing price bubble, the conclusion is drawn that there is no obvious "false high" in China's commodity housing price at the present stage.Using the model of this paper, this paper analyzes the trend of average price of commercial housing and points out that if the investment in real estate development keeps the growth rate since 2000, there will be a situation that the supply of commercial housing exceeds the demand, and the average price of commercial housing falls.According to the model of this paper, a more appropriate real estate investment growth rate is calculated.4.On the basis of summing up the full text, this paper puts forward a series of valuable suggestions and revelations.These suggestions and revelations have important practical guiding significance for investors' investment activities in the commercial housing market and the new policies issued by government departments to regulate the commercial housing market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2006
【分類號】：F293.3;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 陳多長,蹤家峰;房地產(chǎn)稅收與住宅資產(chǎn)價(jià)格:理論分析與政策評價(jià)[J];財(cái)貿(mào)研究;2004年01期

2 包宗華;再探房地產(chǎn)周期的界定[J];城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè);2004年05期

3 丁烈云;房地產(chǎn)周期波動成因分析[J];華中科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會科學(xué)版);2003年02期

4 沈悅,劉洪玉;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)關(guān)系的研究[J];價(jià)格理論與實(shí)踐;2002年08期

5 厲以寧;經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫不等于泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)理人;2005年01期

6 余曉;宏觀因素與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格[J];中國科技產(chǎn)業(yè);1996年01期

7 羅平,何素芳,牛慧恩;城市住宅市場價(jià)格系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型實(shí)證研究[J];人文地理;2001年02期

8 吳紅華;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素分析[J];溫州大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2001年03期

9 陳伯庚;房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)[J];中國房地信息;2002年10期

10 張?jiān)?房地產(chǎn)業(yè)周期波動又探——中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)步入新的周期[J];中國房地信息;2005年08期

，

本文編號：1767005