本文選題：匯率傳遞效應(yīng)　切入點(diǎn)：依市定價(jià)能力　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：匯率作為衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要風(fēng)向標(biāo),也是價(jià)格體系中核心組成部分,它的變動(dòng)對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)既會(huì)牽動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)資源的配置,也會(huì)影響一國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。從微觀上看,它既會(huì)影響一國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的物價(jià)水平和進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格水平,也會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)的產(chǎn)品定價(jià)行為和依市定價(jià)能力產(chǎn)生影響。經(jīng)過(guò)2005年、2010年、2015年3次對(duì)匯率制度的改革,我國(guó)匯率市場(chǎng)化程度也越來(lái)越高,人民幣匯率也處于持續(xù)升值狀態(tài)。出口作為拉動(dòng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的“三駕馬車”之一,出口狀態(tài)的好壞直接關(guān)系到我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度和水平的高低。根據(jù)經(jīng)典的馬歇爾-勒納條件,一國(guó)的幣值升值會(huì)顯著的減少貿(mào)易順差,使對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展條件得以改善。但實(shí)際情況是,匯改后我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的順差狀態(tài)并沒(méi)有得到改變,出現(xiàn)了實(shí)際與理論相悖的窘?jīng)r。除此之外,由于2008年金融危機(jī)的余波未盡,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)處于一個(gè)緩慢復(fù)蘇的階段,各國(guó)的市場(chǎng)需求不足,外加貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的抬頭,貿(mào)易摩擦現(xiàn)象已有越演越烈的趨勢(shì),這一切勢(shì)必會(huì)令我國(guó)出口企業(yè)的日子越來(lái)越窘迫�；谝陨媳尘跋�,研究我國(guó)出口匯率的傳遞與出口商品依市定價(jià)能力,使企業(yè)擺脫困境,改善我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易狀況顯得十分必要。本文根據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)背景,陳述了一些問(wèn)題現(xiàn)象,提出了擬解決的相關(guān)問(wèn)題,在總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)和收集了相關(guān)研究數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,首先回顧本文需要借鑒的理論基礎(chǔ),再通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析法分析了我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀,并構(gòu)建了匯率傳遞與依市定價(jià)能力的數(shù)理模型。再利用變系數(shù)的固定效應(yīng)模型和面板的誤差修正模型對(duì)各行業(yè)的匯率傳遞程度進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,結(jié)合實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果得出了各個(gè)行業(yè)的出口依市定價(jià)能力。在以上研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,再結(jié)合當(dāng)下經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策背景,給出相關(guān)決策建議。經(jīng)過(guò)一系列的理論及實(shí)證研究,本文得出以下3點(diǎn)結(jié)論:(1)從長(zhǎng)期的匯率傳遞效應(yīng)來(lái)看,行業(yè)之間的匯率傳遞效應(yīng)差別較大�？傮w上看,平均匯率傳遞系數(shù)約為0.26,說(shuō)明匯率變化的26%可以通過(guò)價(jià)格來(lái)消化。另外,從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,關(guān)鍵變量人民幣名義有效匯率對(duì)價(jià)格的影響要小于控制變量國(guó)外需求和國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本。(2)從短期的匯率傳遞效應(yīng)來(lái)看,我們所研究的15個(gè)行業(yè)中大多數(shù)短期內(nèi)價(jià)格對(duì)匯率變動(dòng)的反應(yīng)不顯著,大部分行業(yè)面對(duì)匯率的變動(dòng)都無(wú)力在即期做出調(diào)整,它們傾向于將匯率的影響在一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期內(nèi)慢慢傳遞出去。并且從價(jià)格的短期調(diào)整力度方面來(lái)看,各個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)短期內(nèi)價(jià)格的偏移調(diào)整力度也有較大的差別。(3)從依市定價(jià)能力(?PTM)層面上來(lái)看,總體上,我們研究的15個(gè)行業(yè)的平均PTM值約為-0.74,說(shuō)明出口廠商通過(guò)調(diào)整成本加成的行為來(lái)沖減匯率變化的74%,這74%的變動(dòng)完全是依靠廠商自己來(lái)消化。另外,我國(guó)出口行業(yè)之間的依市定價(jià)能力差距比較大�；谝陨辖Y(jié)論,我們初步給出政策建議是:(1)合理控制人民幣匯率雙向波動(dòng)區(qū)間,打破人民幣的升值預(yù)期;(2)善于利用匯率避險(xiǎn)方式,合理規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn);(3)提高出口企業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,打造核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品;(4)改善對(duì)外出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate as an important indicator to measure the economic development of a country, but also the core part of the price system, it changes to a country which will affect domestic economic resources, will also affect the development of a country's foreign trade. From the micro perspective, it will affect the domestic price level the import and export of products and the price level will be pricing behavior of domestic enterprises and the effect of pricing to market ability. After 2005, 2010, 2015 3 times on the exchange rate system reform, the degree of China's foreign exchange market has become increasingly high, the RMB exchange rate in the state. The continued appreciation of exports as a driving force for China's economic the development of one of the three carriages, the export status is directly related to China's economic development speed and level. According to the classic Marshall Lerner condition, a country's currency appreciation will significantly To reduce the trade surplus, the conditions for the development of foreign trade can be improved. But the reality is that after the reform of China's foreign trade surplus has not been changed, the actual and theory predicament. In addition, due to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the world economy is in a slow recovery the stage, lack of market demand, with the rise of trade protectionism, trade friction phenomenon has intensified the trend, it is bound to China's export enterprises have been more and more distress. Based on the above background, the research of China's export exchange rate transfer and export commodity pricing to market ability, enable enterprises to get rid of it is necessary to improve the situation of dilemma, China's export trade. Based on the realistic background, presents some problems, put forward to solve related problems, in summing up the relevant research literature at home and abroad and received Based on the study of data collection, firstly review the need for the theoretical basis, the status quo of China's export trade analysis method through the statistical analysis, and constructs the mathematical model of exchange rate and transfer pricing to market ability. The error of the fixed effect model and the variable coefficient panel exchange rate correction model of various industries the transmission of the empirical analysis, combined with the empirical research results from the various sectors of the export pricing to market ability. On the basis of above research results, combined with the current economic and policy background, given the relevant policy recommendations. Through a series of theoretical and empirical research, this paper draws the following 3 conclusions: (1) transfer from the long-term exchange rate effect, the exchange rate between the industry transfer effect is quite different. On the whole, the average rate of transfer coefficient is about 0.26, that exchange rate changes through the price to 26% Digestion. In addition, in the long term, the key variables of RMB nominal effective exchange rate impact on prices is less than the control variables of foreign demand and domestic production costs. (2) transfer from the short-term exchange rate effect, the 15 industries we studied in most of the short term price is not significant to the exchange rate response, most of the industry in the face exchange rate movements are unable to make adjustments in the spot, they tend to be the influence of the exchange rate in a longer period of time slowly passed out. And from the short-term adjustment of prices in terms of offset adjustment efforts on the short term price of various industries also have a large difference. (3) from the pricing to market ability (? PTM) level, on the whole, the average PTM of the 15 industry in our study is about -0.74, that export by adjusting the cost plus behavior to offset the change of exchange rate is 74%, the variation of 74% Is completely rely on manufacturers to digest themselves. In addition, China's export industry pricing to market ability is relatively large gap. Based on the above conclusions, we give preliminary policy recommendations: (1) the reasonable control of the renminbi exchange rate fluctuations interval, breaking the expectations of Renminbi appreciation; (2) good use of exchange rate hedging, to avoid exchange rate risk reasonable; (3) improve the international competitiveness of export enterprises, to build the core competitive products; (4) improve the export trade structure, promote the sustainable and healthy development of export trade.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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