本文選題：國際投資頭寸表　切入點：FDI　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,我國資本流入主要體現(xiàn)為外商直接投資(Foreign Direct Investment,簡稱FDI)的形式。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國貿(mào)易發(fā)展組織發(fā)布的《世界投資報告2015》,中國FDI流入規(guī)模首次超過美國,成為世界第一大外資流入國。長期以來,不斷流入的FDI累積形成了規(guī)模龐大的負(fù)債存量,成為我國國際投資頭寸表(International Investment Position,簡稱 IIP)中負(fù)債項目的主體部分,源源不斷流入的FDI不僅增加了我國外匯儲備,也在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)了先期流入的FDI資本撤離與FDI利潤匯回,使我國IIP凈頭寸得以穩(wěn)定增長。然而,隨著我國資金缺口的縮窄,利用FDI緩解國內(nèi)資金不足的意義逐漸降低,長期累積的FDI存量不僅成為了我國IIP負(fù)債的主體,還在我國獲取了高額的收益。傳統(tǒng)理論普遍認(rèn)為FDI一種長期投資方式,具有較強(qiáng)的穩(wěn)定性,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢逆轉(zhuǎn)時,FDI不容易撤出。但是,近年來由于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、勞動力成本提高和引資優(yōu)惠政策力度的減弱,外商投資企業(yè)對我國大幅減投,逐漸將資金轉(zhuǎn)投于越南、老撾等成本低廉的國家或地區(qū),FDI呈現(xiàn)出高于以往的波動性,在流入與利潤匯出方面都發(fā)生了顯著的變化,尤其是歷年累積在我國的留存利潤,不僅形成了規(guī)模龐大的存量,而且這部分利潤若集中匯出,將會對我國IIP產(chǎn)生一定的影響。本文以FDI變局為背景,重點研究FDI對國際投資頭寸表產(chǎn)生的影響,基于卡萊斯基模型,從FDI流入、FDI撤出和利潤匯出三個方面分析了其影響機(jī)制,當(dāng)FDI不再源源不斷流入時,當(dāng)期流入的FDI將無法彌補(bǔ)早期FDI撤離與利潤匯回,此時需要足夠的資產(chǎn)以滿足資本流出,這將會導(dǎo)致凈頭寸規(guī)�？s減,最終惡化國際投資頭寸表,尤其早期留存的巨額利潤更加增大了國際投資頭寸表惡化的風(fēng)險。全文共分為六大部分:第一部分是緒論,包括論文的選題背景、選題意義,相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述、本文框架結(jié)構(gòu)、本文創(chuàng)新及不足;第二部分是理論分析,主要是FDI與IIP的相關(guān)理論。主要闡述卡萊斯基模型,分析FDI對IIP的影響機(jī)制,并且具體分析了我國FDI與IIP的關(guān)系及其影響機(jī)制;第三部分是描述性統(tǒng)計,主要是FDI對ⅡP影響的描述性統(tǒng)計。分析FDI對國際投資頭寸表中資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、凈頭寸各個主要項目所帶來的影響;第四部分是實證研究,主要是論證了 FDI對ⅡP產(chǎn)生影響的原因。運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗與誤差修證模型分別從長期均衡與短期波動進(jìn)行分析與論證;第五部分是估計與預(yù)測,主要是在不同情景下,針對FDI對我國ⅡP可能產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行估計與預(yù)測;第六部分是結(jié)論與政策建議,總結(jié)前文研究得出結(jié)論,并提出優(yōu)化國際投資頭寸表、加強(qiáng)利潤匯出管理、鼓勵對外投資、加快人民國際化進(jìn)程等具有可行性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's capital inflows have mainly taken the form of foreign direct investment (Direct). According to the World Investment report published by the United Nations Trade and Development Organization (WTO), for the first time, China's FDI inflow has exceeded that of the United States. It has become the largest foreign capital inflow country in the world. For a long time, the continuous inflow of FDI has formed a huge amount of debt stock, and has become the main part of the debt items in the international investment position statement of our country. The continuous inflow of FDI not only increases China's foreign exchange reserves, but also to some extent makes up for the withdrawal of FDI capital inflow and the return of FDI profits, which makes the net IIP position of our country grow steadily. However, with the narrowing of China's capital gap, The significance of using FDI to alleviate the shortage of domestic funds is gradually decreasing. The long-term accumulated stock of FDI has not only become the main body of our country's IIP debt, but also made high profits in our country. Traditional theory generally thinks that FDI is a kind of long-term investment mode. FDI is not easy to withdraw when the economic situation reverses. However, in recent years, due to the adjustment of economic structure, the increase of labor cost and the weakening of preferential policies for attracting foreign investment, foreign-invested enterprises have greatly reduced their investment in China. Gradually transferring capital to Vietnam, Laos and other low-cost countries or regions, FDI has shown higher volatility than in the past, and there have been significant changes in the inflow and repatriation of profits, especially the accumulated retained profits in China over the years. Not only has the stock formed a large scale, but if this part of profit is remitted, it will have a certain influence on the IIP of our country. This paper focuses on the impact of FDI on the international investment position table with the background of FDI variation. Based on Kalesky model, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of FDI inflow and FDI withdrawal and profit remittance from three aspects. When FDI is no longer flowing in, the current FDI will not be able to make up for the early FDI withdrawal and profit repatriation. At this point, sufficient assets are needed to meet the capital outflow, which will result in a reduction in the size of the net position, which will eventually worsen the international investment position table. In particular, the large profits retained in the early period further increase the risk of deterioration of the IIP. The thesis is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction, including the background of the thesis, the significance of the topic, the relevant literature review, the framework of this paper. The second part is the theoretical analysis, mainly the related theories of FDI and IIP. It mainly expounds the Kalesky model, analyzes the influence mechanism of FDI on IIP, and analyzes the relationship between FDI and IIP in China and its influence mechanism. The third part is descriptive statistics, mainly the descriptive statistics of the impact of FDI on IIP. The paper analyzes the impact of FDI on the main items of international investment position, such as assets, liabilities and net positions. Part 4th is an empirical study. This paper mainly demonstrates the reason why FDI has an effect on 鈪，

本文編號：1619415