本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期　切入點(diǎn)：協(xié)動(dòng)性　出處：《東南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和開放程度的不斷提高,各個(gè)國家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)出現(xiàn)了協(xié)動(dòng)性,即經(jīng)濟(jì)體同步擴(kuò)張或收縮的現(xiàn)象。引起國家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)協(xié)動(dòng)性的主要因素很多,由于外商直接投資(FDI)在國際經(jīng)濟(jì)往來中發(fā)揮越來越重要的作用,所以被納入作為研究影響經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的重要的外來沖擊因素,基于東亞與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系以及作為中國外商直接投資重要的互動(dòng)地區(qū),研究外商直接投資對(duì)中國和東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的影響,有利于把握中國經(jīng)濟(jì)與東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期運(yùn)行規(guī)律,加強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作和政策協(xié)調(diào),從而促進(jìn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。本文選取了東亞主要的14個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,對(duì)它們與中國之間的雙邊經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性進(jìn)行了定性和定量研究,通過實(shí)際增長率分析得知中國FDI增長率波動(dòng)的幅度要大大超過GDP增長率的波動(dòng)幅度,并且FDI增長率的波動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的波動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)出相關(guān)性。本文構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)分別衡量了中國與東亞各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的雙邊經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性、外商直接投資、貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易情況,結(jié)合HP濾波分析對(duì)包括中國在內(nèi)的15個(gè)東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體的GDP序列進(jìn)行分解,提取周期波動(dòng)項(xiàng)后,得出東亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)存在一定程度的同步性。本文并且還研究樣本時(shí)間跨度內(nèi)存在的共同擴(kuò)張期和收縮期,并在此基礎(chǔ)之上建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,實(shí)證分析FDI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的影響。綜合以上研究結(jié)果,在FDI對(duì)中國與東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的變化分析中,中國與東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性和直接投資存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,當(dāng)兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的雙邊FDI強(qiáng)度增大,它們之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性就增強(qiáng),但實(shí)證分析結(jié)果雖然表明FDI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性影響的方向是正向的,但是在統(tǒng)計(jì)上并不顯著。最后基于文章的研究過程和結(jié)果,提出重視反周期政策的制定和提高外資利用效率,合理引入外商直接投資的政策建議,注重發(fā)揮FDI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張時(shí)期的有利影響,避免外資來源過于集中,放大中國與投資來源地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)面互動(dòng),緩解由于總量波動(dòng)過大和比例失衡所引起的周期波動(dòng),從而確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economy and the increasing degree of opening up, the fluctuation of the economic cycle among the various countries has appeared to be synergistic. That is, the phenomenon of synchronous expansion or contraction of economies. There are many main factors that cause the economic cycle fluctuations among countries to be synergistic. Since foreign direct investment (FDI) FDI (foreign direct investment) plays an increasingly important role in international economic exchanges, Therefore, being included as an important external shock factor to study the coactivity of the economic cycle, based on the relationship between East Asia and China's economy and as an important interactive region of China's foreign direct investment, Studying the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China and East Asia's economic cycle is beneficial to grasp the law of Chinese economy and East Asian economic cycle, and to strengthen economic cooperation and policy coordination. In order to promote the smooth development of China's economy, this paper selects 14 major economies in East Asia to carry out qualitative and quantitative studies on the bilateral economic cycle synergy between them and China. Through the analysis of the real growth rate, we can see that the fluctuation range of China's FDI growth rate is much larger than that of the GDP growth rate. Moreover, the fluctuation of FDI growth rate is correlated with the fluctuation of economic cycle. This paper constructs economic indicators to measure the bilateral economic cycle synergy, foreign direct investment, trade and intra-industry trade between China and East Asian economies, respectively. Combined with HP filter analysis, the GDP sequences of 15 East Asian economies, including China, are decomposed to extract periodic fluctuations. This paper also studies the common expansion period and contraction period in the sample time span, and establishes the panel data model on the basis of which the economic fluctuation in East Asia has a certain degree of synchronism. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of FDI on the economic cycle fluctuation, and synthesizes the above results, and in the analysis of the cooperativity between China and East Asia, there is a positive correlation between the economic cycle coactivity and direct investment in China and East Asian economies. When the bilateral FDI intensity between the two economies increases, the business cycle synergy between them increases, but the empirical analysis results show that the direction of the FDI influence on the economic cycle coactivity is positive. However, it is not statistically significant. Finally, based on the research process and results of the paper, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to make counter-cyclical policies, how to improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization, and how to introduce foreign direct investment reasonably. We should pay attention to giving full play to the favorable influence of FDI on the period of economic expansion, avoid the excessive concentration of foreign capital sources, enlarge the negative economic interaction between China and the regions where the investment comes from, and alleviate the periodic fluctuations caused by the excessive fluctuation of the total amount and the imbalance of the proportion. Thus ensuring the smooth operation of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F113.7;F124.8

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 任希麗;張兵;李可愛;;經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的影響因素分析——基于中國與其東亞貿(mào)易伙伴的實(shí)證研究[J];現(xiàn)代財(cái)經(jīng)(天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào));2013年03期

2 何春生;;關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性研究的述評(píng)[J];商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年04期

3 錢峰;李方;;中國與貿(mào)易伙伴的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性研究[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)信息;2012年03期

4 石林松;孫皓;劉曉明;;FDI對(duì)中國與主要貿(mào)易對(duì)象國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的影響分析[J];吉林大學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2012年01期

5 杜群陽;朱劍光;;產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易對(duì)東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性影響的實(shí)證研究[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2011年12期

6 沈驥;曹星;;中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理;2011年12期

7 唐可欣;魏瑋;;西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論研究進(jìn)展與展望[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)縱橫;2010年12期

8 程惠芳;岑麗君;;FDI、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2010年09期

9 方建春;杜群陽;;中國與東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的協(xié)動(dòng)性研究[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年14期

10 曹永峰;;西方對(duì)外直接投資理論綜述[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2010年03期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 李海燕;東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 馮曉莉;中國與主要貿(mào)易伙伴經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的影響因素研究[D];廈門大學(xué);2014年

2 劉珊珊;東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性與傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制研究[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2012年

3 劉曉明;FDI對(duì)中國與其主要國家景氣協(xié)動(dòng)性影響的分析[D];吉林大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1580736