本文關(guān)鍵詞： 新常態(tài) 中等收入陷阱 結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整 收入分配　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代開始,中國(guó)作為東亞最富活力的國(guó)家走上了高速發(fā)展的時(shí)代,年均GDP增速接近10%,從本質(zhì)上提升了國(guó)力和人民生活水平,改變了中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位。然而,長(zhǎng)期的非均衡發(fā)展帶來了相應(yīng)的負(fù)面影響,2008年金融危機(jī)之后,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入緩慢復(fù)蘇的泥潭,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也告別了兩位數(shù)字的增長(zhǎng),進(jìn)入下行區(qū)間。2014年中國(guó)政府首次用“新常態(tài)”來描述當(dāng)前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。2015年,中國(guó)的全年GDP為67.67萬億人民幣,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速6.9%,人均GDP達(dá)到5.2萬元人民幣(按13億人口計(jì)),約合8016美元。按照國(guó)際通行標(biāo)準(zhǔn),中國(guó)早已進(jìn)入中高等收入國(guó)家行列。然而,從國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)看,當(dāng)一國(guó)國(guó)民收入達(dá)到中等水平以后,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展往往會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些問題,即陷入所謂“中等收入陷阱”的困局。拉丁美洲的巴西、智利、委內(nèi)瑞拉,東南亞的菲律賓、馬來西亞等國(guó)家,都是其中的典型代表。中國(guó)是一個(gè)擁有13億人口的大國(guó),經(jīng)濟(jì)總量超過60萬億人民幣,改革開放以來尤其是近些年來經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展取得了巨大成就。但是在面臨跨越中等收入陷阱問題上,尚沒有現(xiàn)成的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以借鑒。前期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來的產(chǎn)能過剩、需求萎縮、貧富差距拉大等問題,以及人口紅利的減退、自然環(huán)境惡化等因素的制約,使中國(guó)在邁向高收入國(guó)家的進(jìn)程中困難重重。在經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)的背景下,如何破解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的各項(xiàng)難題,跨越中等收入陷阱,防止上述問題的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大和蔓延,推進(jìn)中國(guó)全面深化改革開放,都是值得深思的重大課題。尤其是在全面建成小康社會(huì)和實(shí)現(xiàn)中華民族偉大復(fù)興的歷史進(jìn)程中,更加值得全社會(huì)高度關(guān)注基于此,本文在“認(rèn)識(shí)新常態(tài)、適應(yīng)新常態(tài)、引領(lǐng)新常態(tài)”的主線下,對(duì)新常態(tài)下我國(guó)跨越中等收入陷阱的問題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究。本文的結(jié)構(gòu)大致分為七部分,第一部分闡明了課題研究的背景、意義、研究方法與研究的主要內(nèi)容。在第二部分,是對(duì)中等收入陷阱研究的國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述,從中等收入陷阱的認(rèn)識(shí)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及跨越中等收入陷阱的影響因素等方面的研究進(jìn)行了梳理,并作出了簡(jiǎn)要評(píng)價(jià)。第三部分,是本文研究的理論基礎(chǔ),包括對(duì)中國(guó)新常態(tài)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)認(rèn)識(shí)、中等收入陷阱理論及二者之間的理論關(guān)系。第四部分是從定性的角度,對(duì)新常態(tài)下跨越中等收入陷阱的影響因素及機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析,具體包括新常態(tài)下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的現(xiàn)狀,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下行、人口轉(zhuǎn)型、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、收入分配及擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需等對(duì)跨越中等收入陷阱的影響機(jī)理,并提出了相應(yīng)觀點(diǎn)。第五部分,是本文的計(jì)量分析部分,在新常態(tài)下主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)跨越中等收入陷阱定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用31個(gè)省市自治區(qū)5年的面板數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行了計(jì)量分析,并得出具體實(shí)證結(jié)論。第六部分,主要介紹跨越中等收入陷阱的國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)及教訓(xùn),選取了跨越中等收入陷阱的成功和失敗兩方面的案例,包括英國(guó)、美國(guó)、德國(guó)和日本的成功案例,以及拉美國(guó)家、東南亞國(guó)家、東歐國(guó)家的失敗案例,從正反兩個(gè)方面闡述如何跨越中等收入陷阱的經(jīng)驗(yàn)及教訓(xùn)。第七部分,結(jié)合我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)的現(xiàn)狀以及定性、定量分析的結(jié)論,提出了我國(guó)跨越中等收入陷阱、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)策和建議,包括改善勞動(dòng)人口占比、提高人力資本質(zhì)量；平衡投資與消費(fèi),保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)內(nèi)需內(nèi)生動(dòng)力；加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)調(diào)整升級(jí)、激發(fā)產(chǎn)業(yè)活力；加大研發(fā)投入和科技創(chuàng)新力度、促進(jìn)科技成果有效轉(zhuǎn)化；完善收入分配政策、促進(jìn)居民收入增長(zhǎng)等。本文研究的主要結(jié)論有：(1)在中等收入階段,落入陷阱與跨越陷阱經(jīng)濟(jì)體的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率存在明顯的差異,跨越陷阱國(guó)家或地區(qū)的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率基本超過6%,而落入陷阱國(guó)家或地區(qū)的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率主要處于1%-4%之間。(2)基于中國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù),人口自然增長(zhǎng)率下降有利于跨越中等收入陷阱,勞動(dòng)人口占比與人均收入成正相關(guān)。(3)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度與跨越中等收入陷阱之間存在直接影響,保持一定合理水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,是成功跨越中等收入陷阱的保障。(4)消費(fèi)需求和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)人均收入的增長(zhǎng)具有顯著的正向影響。(5)城鎮(zhèn)化的水平的提高,對(duì)跨越中等收入陷阱具有積極影響。
[Abstract]:The beginning of 1980s, Chinese as East Asia's most vibrant country on the era of rapid development, the average annual GDP growth rate of nearly 10%, essentially to enhance the national strength and people's living standards, changing the Chinese's role in the global economy. However, the non balanced development of long-term brought the negative influence, after the 2008 financial the global economic crisis, in the slow recovery of the quagmire, China economy also bid farewell to the two digit growth, entering a downward interval.2014 Chinese government for the first time with the "new normal" to describe the current economic Chinese.2015 years, China the annual GDP 67 trillion and 670 billion yuan, the economic growth rate of 6.9%, the per capita GDP reached 52 thousand yuan (according to the 1 billion 300 million population meter), or about $8016. According to international standard, China has already entered the ranks of high-income countries. However, from the international experience, when a country's national income at the medium level Later, the economic development will often encounter some problems, which fall into the so-called "middle income trap" predicament. In Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Southeast of Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, is one of the typical representative. China is a 1 billion 300 million in the country, the total economic output of more than 60 trillion yuan, the reform and opening up especially in recent years since the economic and social development has made great achievements. But in the face across the middle-income trap, there is no ready-made experience. Bring early economic development overcapacity, shrinking demand, widening the gap between rich and poor and other issues, and the decline of the demographic dividend, restricting the deterioration of the natural environment and other factors, the in China towards high-income countries in the process of economic difficulties. In the context of the new normal, how to solve the problem of China economic and social development, leap Other income trap, prevent the above problems to further expand and spread China promote comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up, is a major issue worth pondering. Especially in the historical process of building a well-off society and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the whole society more worthy of a high degree of attention based on this, this article in the "understanding of the new normal, adaptation the new normal, the main leading new normal under the new normal in China across the middle-income trap problems were studied. The structure of this paper can be divided into seven parts, the first part explains the research background, significance, main content, research methods and research. In the second part, is reviewed the research on the middle income trap, from the middle income trap, research standard and influence across the Middle Income Trap factors are summarized, and a brief evaluation. The third part is the theoretical basis of this study, including the understanding of the new normal China economics, theory of the relationship between the middle income trap theory and the two. The fourth part is from the qualitative point of view, the influence factors of the new norm across the middle-income trap and mechanism are analyzed, including the status quo of China's economic operation and the the new normal, and the downward economic growth, the demographic transition, the adjustment of industrial structure, income distribution and the mechanism of the effect of expanding domestic demand across the middle-income trap, and puts forward some corresponding views. The fifth part is the quantitative analysis part of this article, the main economic factors under the new norm on the basis of qualitative analysis across the middle income trap. Using the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions for 5 years, were analyzed, and the empirical conclusions. The sixth part mainly introduces the international experience across the middle-income trap And the lesson, selected across the middle income trap the success and failure of two cases, including Britain, the United States, the successful case of Germany and Japan, and Latin American countries, Southeast Asian countries, failures in Eastern Europe, describes the experience and lessons of how to cross the middle income trap from two sides. The seventh part, combined with the status quo the qualitative and the new normal economy in China, the quantitative analysis conclusion, proposed our country across the middle income trap, to achieve sustainable economic development countermeasures and suggestions, including improving the labor population proportion, improve the quality of human capital; the balance of investment and consumption, domestic demand to maintain economic growth of endogenous power; accelerate the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade. Stimulate industrial activity; increase investment in research and development and technological innovation, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements; improve the income distribution policy, promoting the residents' income growth. This study The main conclusions are: (1) in the middle-income stage, fall into the trap and GDP per capita across the trap economy's rate of growth are significantly different across countries or regions of the trap GDP per capita growth rate of more than 6%, and fall into the trap of GDP per capita growth rate of major countries or regions in 1%-4%. (2) Chinese based on the data, the natural population growth rate dropped to cross the middle income trap, labor population and per capita income is positively correlated. (3) the rate of economic growth has a direct effect between and across the middle income trap, maintain a reasonable level of economic growth, is the guarantee of success across the middle income trap. (4) consumer demand and the adjustment of industrial structure has a positive effect on the growth of per capita income. (5) the urbanization level, which has a positive impact on across the middle-income trap.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F124.7

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