本文關(guān)鍵詞： 上市公司 重大并購重組 資產(chǎn)評估 收益額預(yù)測 馬爾科夫模型　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：并購重組一直是資本市場炙手可熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)交易形式,資產(chǎn)評估作為提供標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)交易定價參考依據(jù)的獨立第三方,其方法選擇和參數(shù)確定在并購重組中受到的關(guān)注度日益提高。收益法作為并購重組價值評估中最常用的方法,其首要參數(shù)收益額的預(yù)測精準(zhǔn)度對目標(biāo)企業(yè)價值評估客觀性和公允性而言至關(guān)重要。本文基于2011年28家滬深A(yù)股上市公司重大并購重組交易案例披露的評估數(shù)據(jù),判斷預(yù)測收益額和未來實際發(fā)生額的偏差程度,并根據(jù)現(xiàn)狀分析存在的問題,提出具有可行性的收益額預(yù)測改進(jìn)模型。首先,回顧了企業(yè)價值評估收益額相關(guān)理論并簡要評述現(xiàn)行預(yù)測方法的局限性;其次針對上市公司在2011年發(fā)生的重大并購重組交易案例進(jìn)行分析,一方面通過依次統(tǒng)計披露的并購重組類型、并購方所屬行業(yè)、評估選擇方法、收益額口徑擇取等信息,客觀地反映市場評估現(xiàn)狀;另一方面,分析重大并購重組后目標(biāo)公司三年實際收益,探究其表現(xiàn)出的行業(yè)特征及時間特性;再次,運用實證分析手法,將收益法預(yù)測的未來三年收益額詳細(xì)數(shù)據(jù)與交易完成后并購方披露的目標(biāo)公司實際凈利潤數(shù)值進(jìn)行比較,分析縱向各年和橫向行業(yè)間的偏差趨勢,并運用SFE、AFE、MAFE統(tǒng)計指標(biāo)對偏差程度予以評價,由此得到我國并購市場絕大多數(shù)行業(yè)收益額預(yù)測偏差較大且隨預(yù)測時段的拉長愈加嚴(yán)重的結(jié)論。針對我國目前評估行業(yè)收益法應(yīng)用中收益額預(yù)測的現(xiàn)存問題,本文提出收益額預(yù)測新思路,構(gòu)建改進(jìn)的灰色馬爾科夫模型,并通過實例證明其可行性,以期能對評估實務(wù)操作提供經(jīng)驗借鑒,減少收益額參數(shù)主觀臆斷性,降低評估結(jié)果誤差,幫助企業(yè)管理層、外部投資者等相關(guān)利益群體做出最優(yōu)的經(jīng)營決策。
[Abstract]:Mergers and acquisitions has been the form of economic capital market transactions hot, asset assessment is provide the basis for the price of the transaction price reference of the independent third party, the methods and parameters determined by the merger and reorganization of the increasingly attention. The income method is the most commonly used method to assess the value of mergers and acquisitions group, the primary parameters of income prediction the amount of accuracy for the target enterprise value assessment objectivity and fairness is very important. This paper evaluates data disclosure of major mergers and acquisitions transactions in 2011 28 in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares of listed companies based on the case, judge the revenue forecast and actual value of the deviation degree of the future, according to the present situation, analyze the existing problems, put forward the improvement of income model is feasible. The amount of prediction. Firstly, reviews the related theory of income and the limitations of the existing prediction methods are briefly reviewed the enterprise value assessment; For the listed companies in major mergers and acquisitions transactions occurred in 2011, followed by statistical analysis, on the one hand, the disclosure of the merger and reorganization merger type, industry, evaluation and selection method, income caliber choose to take information, objectively reflect the assessment of the market situation; on the other hand, analysis of major mergers and acquisitions of Target Corp after three years of practical return, explore the character of the industry and the characteristics of time; thirdly, using empirical analysis method, the income method to predict the next three years with earnings data and after the completion of the transaction acquirer disclosure of Target Corp actual net profit numerical comparison, trend analysis of longitudinal and transverse industry each year between the deviation and the use of SFE. AFE, MAFE statistical indicators to assess the extent of deviation, the vast majority of the industry mergers and acquisitions in China market revenue forecast and prediction of large deviation with long time The severity of the conclusion. In view of the current existing problems of industry revenue, income assessment using the method of prediction, this income forecast new ideas, constructing the improved grey Markov model, and proves its feasibility through the example, in order to evaluate the practice to provide reference and experience, reduce the amount of income subjective parameters. To reduce the error evaluation results, help enterprise management, external investors and other stakeholders to make optimal decisions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F271;F275

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