本文關(guān)鍵詞： 出口技術(shù)復雜度 半?yún)?shù)估計 中美貿(mào)易 引力模型　出處：《閩南師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：在當前全球經(jīng)濟增速逐漸放緩、外貿(mào)市場需求依舊疲軟和國際同類產(chǎn)品競爭日益激烈的沖擊下,我國對美出口貿(mào)易也開始呈現(xiàn)增長乏力的態(tài)勢。如何提升我國出口產(chǎn)品技術(shù)含量,促進出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化,進而推動對美出口貿(mào)易增長是有待解決的課題。基于此,從高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度的視角研究我國對美出口貿(mào)易具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。本文主要研究內(nèi)容如下:一是從產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的角度分析我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度的演化趨勢。首先,通過文獻梳理界定高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品類別并甄選出口技術(shù)復雜度測算方法;其次,利用LMDI分解方法分析我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度演化趨勢。本文認為,全球各類高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度的綜合拉動作用是我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度快速提升的主要動力,我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)變動的積極影響則相對較弱。究其原因,主要是我國提升高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品復雜度的側(cè)重領(lǐng)域與全球不一致,即全球以醫(yī)藥制造品和醫(yī)療設備及儀器儀表制造品為主導快速提升高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度,而我國主要以電子及通信設備制造品為主導提升高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度。二是從高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度的視角探討我國對美出口貿(mào)易的影響因素。首先,從傳統(tǒng)雙邊貿(mào)易引力模型出發(fā),引入出口技術(shù)復雜度形成雙邊貿(mào)易引力拓展模型;其次,立足于雙邊貿(mào)易引力拓展模型,針對成本因素對雙邊貿(mào)易有影響但難于量化的特點,采用半?yún)?shù)估計方法實證分析我國對美出口貿(mào)易的影響因素。本文認為,以人民幣匯率作為成本因素替代變量并作為非參數(shù)部分,采用半?yún)?shù)估計方法進行計量模型估計更為恰當。實證結(jié)果證實我國對美出口貿(mào)易與人民幣匯率之間具有較強的依存關(guān)系,貿(mào)易成本因素的不確定性影響了我國對美出口貿(mào)易。在這種貿(mào)易成本因素不確定性影響下,我國對美出口貿(mào)易不斷擴張確實得益于我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口技術(shù)復雜度快速提升。因此,我國對美出口貿(mào)易要穩(wěn)定增長,關(guān)鍵在于降低中美間貿(mào)易成本因素不確定性,優(yōu)化高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),重點提升醫(yī)藥制造品和醫(yī)療設備及儀器儀表制造品等領(lǐng)域的出口技術(shù)復雜度,以此穩(wěn)步推進我國高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量。
[Abstract]:In the current global economic growth rate gradually slow down, foreign trade market demand is still weak and international similar products increasingly fierce competition under the impact. China's export trade to the United States has also begun to show a trend of weak growth. How to improve the technical content of our export products and promote the optimization of export product structure. Therefore, promoting the growth of export trade to the United States is a problem to be solved. It is of practical significance to study China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of technological complexity of high-tech products export. The main contents of this paper are as follows:. The first is to analyze the evolution trend of the technological complexity of high-tech products export from the point of view of product structure. First of all. Define the category of high-tech products through literature review and select the method of measuring the complexity of export technology; Secondly, using LMDI decomposition method to analyze the trend of technological complexity evolution of high-tech products export in China. The comprehensive pulling effect of global high-tech export technology complexity is the main driving force for the rapid increase of high-tech export technology complexity in China. The positive impact of the structure change of high-tech products in China is relatively weak. The main reason is that the focus areas of China to enhance the complexity of high-tech products are not consistent with the global. That is, the global pharmaceutical manufactures and medical equipment and instruments manufacturing products as the leading rapid increase in high-tech products export technology complexity. The second is to discuss the influence factors of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of the technical complexity of high-tech products export. . Based on the traditional bilateral trade gravity model, this paper introduces the complexity of export technology to form a bilateral trade gravity expansion model. Secondly, based on the bilateral trade gravity expansion model, the cost factors have an impact on bilateral trade, but difficult to quantify the characteristics. This paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of China's export trade to the United States by using the semi-parametric estimation method. This paper argues that the RMB exchange rate is used as a cost factor to replace the variables and as a non-parametric part. The empirical results confirm that China's export trade to the United States has a strong dependence on the RMB exchange rate. The uncertainty of trade cost factors affects China's export trade to the United States. The continuous expansion of China's export trade to the United States really benefits from the rapid increase in the technical complexity of our high-tech exports. Therefore, China's export trade to the United States should grow steadily. The key lies in reducing the uncertainty of trade costs between China and the United States, optimizing the structure of high-tech products, and focusing on increasing the technical complexity of exports in areas such as pharmaceutical manufactures and medical equipment and instrumentation manufactures. In order to steadily promote the technical content of high-tech products in China.
【學位授予單位】：閩南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62

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