本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換回歸模型　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：消費(fèi)、投資與出口通常被稱作拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“三駕馬車”。其中,消費(fèi)在拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中起著基礎(chǔ)性的作用。目前,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”,在刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三駕馬車中,投資正在放緩,對(duì)外出口增長(zhǎng)乏力,因此通過采取正確的消費(fèi)政策,提振消費(fèi),是保持國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的順利過渡和維持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速發(fā)展的重要保證�？墒情L(zhǎng)期以來,我國(guó)消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的主力軍在城市,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)明顯滯后,這影響著中國(guó)整體消費(fèi)水平的增長(zhǎng)。而我國(guó)擁有6.18億的農(nóng)村居民,占總?cè)丝诘?5.23%,這說明農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)充滿無限潛力的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)。而影響農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平的因素眾多,通貨膨脹則是其中一個(gè)重要的影響因素。因此,在城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)當(dāng)前相對(duì)飽和的情況下,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要作用會(huì)不斷凸顯,如何降低通貨膨脹對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的影響,啟動(dòng)并促進(jìn)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)將成為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵。在以上背景下,本文首先闡述了通貨膨脹影響居民消費(fèi)以及居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生作用的機(jī)理。然后,運(yùn)用大量統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和圖表,從多方面對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,并將其與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,得出農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的總體特征。同時(shí)分別就投資、消費(fèi)與凈出口和農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用進(jìn)行比對(duì),得出我國(guó)消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用仍有待增強(qiáng),農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)尤其不足。接著,實(shí)證分析部分選取了我國(guó)30個(gè)省市1994-2014年的面板數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)平滑轉(zhuǎn)換回歸模型,考察我國(guó)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的非線性關(guān)系,得出以下幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論：(1)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在非線性關(guān)系,隨著通貨膨脹的上升,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響逐漸變小,不利于促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),應(yīng)將通貨膨脹率控制在3.13%以內(nèi)；(2)目前我國(guó)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)度偏小,且受通貨膨脹的影響程度較大。最后,根據(jù)理論與實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,提出如何大力發(fā)展農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi),并有效控制通貨膨脹的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are usually referred to as the "troika" to stimulate economic growth. Among them, consumption plays a fundamental role in stimulating economic growth. At present, China's economic development has entered a "new normal". In the troika that stimulates economic growth, investment is slowing and export growth is weak, thus boosting consumption by adopting the right consumer policies. It is an important guarantee to maintain the smooth transition of the national economic structure and maintain the rapid development of our economy. However, for a long time, the main force of consumption growth in our country is in the city, and the consumption of rural residents is obviously lagging behind. This affects the growth of China's overall consumption level. China has 618 million rural residents, accounting for 45.23% of the total population. This shows that the rural consumer market is a consumer market full of unlimited potential, and there are many factors that affect the consumption level of rural residents, and inflation is one of the important factors. Under the condition that the consumption of urban residents is relatively saturated at present, the important role of rural residents' consumption on economic development will continue to be highlighted, how to reduce the impact of inflation on rural residents' consumption. Starting and promoting the consumption of rural residents will become the key to stimulate economic growth. Under the above background, this paper first expounds the mechanism of inflation affecting household consumption and the effect of resident consumption on economic growth. Using a large number of statistical data and charts, this paper analyzes the current situation of rural residents' consumption from many aspects, and compares it with urban residents' consumption, and obtains the overall characteristics of rural residents' consumption. Comparing the pulling effect of consumption and net export and rural residents' consumption with urban residents' consumption on economic growth, it is concluded that the pulling effect of Chinese consumption on economic growth still needs to be strengthened. Rural residents' consumption is especially insufficient. Then, the empirical analysis selected 30 provinces and cities in China from 1994 to 2014 panel data, using panel data smooth conversion regression model. By investigating the nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth, we can draw the following conclusions: (1) there is a nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth, and with the rise of inflation, there is a nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth. The impact of rural residents' consumption on economic growth is becoming smaller, which is not conducive to promoting economic growth, and the inflation rate should be kept within 3.13%; At present, the contribution of rural residents to economic growth is small and affected by inflation. Finally, according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, how to develop rural residents' consumption is put forward. And effective control of inflation countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F323.8;F124.1

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