本文關鍵詞：江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的動態(tài)機理分析　出處：《江蘇大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 能源結(jié)構(gòu) 系統(tǒng)演化 能源效率 碳排放 煤炭消費 非化石能源發(fā)展

【摘要】：江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)形勢嚴峻,煤炭在一次能源消費中占比約70%,燃煤發(fā)電占比更是高達80%,導致巨大環(huán)境壓力。但能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化并非易事,需要從經(jīng)濟學角度闡述戰(zhàn)略路徑與對策。本文力圖從能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境收益切入,從供需兩側(cè)提出相應的優(yōu)化策略,揭示出江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的路徑及對策建議。全文總共包含七章,其中第一章主要內(nèi)容為問題的提出、研究現(xiàn)狀及構(gòu)建研究框架,作為開篇之章,第一章從國際國內(nèi)的宏觀能源態(tài)勢出發(fā),指出當前國際國內(nèi)能源形勢嚴峻,江蘇省作為經(jīng)濟發(fā)達省份為國家能源發(fā)展分憂責無旁貸,然而通過與廣東對比發(fā)現(xiàn)江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)形勢落后,與自身經(jīng)濟實力不匹配需要進行優(yōu)化,并基于此查閱研究現(xiàn)狀和構(gòu)建研究框架。第二章主要內(nèi)容為理論基礎,為研究江蘇省能源供需發(fā)展,本文運用的主要理論包括可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、系統(tǒng)演化理論以及相應研究方法,并提出對于當前中國和江蘇而言,能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化本質(zhì)是能源結(jié)構(gòu)多樣化,其特征是能源效率持續(xù)提升和二氧化碳排放持續(xù)減少。第三章和第四章主要探討能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化有何經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境收益。第三章為測算江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化能否提升能源利用效率,分別運用香濃-維納多樣性指數(shù)和DEA對其進行測算,發(fā)現(xiàn)江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)多樣性和能源利用效率處于全國中下水平,能源結(jié)構(gòu)多樣化是能提升能源利用效率的,能源結(jié)構(gòu)多樣化每提升1,能源效率提升12%左右。第四章運用LMDI模型確定江蘇省碳排放中的能源結(jié)構(gòu)影響,通過檢驗京津冀、長三角和珠三角所屬7省市的脫鉤效應后以面板滯后工具量化能源結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、開放程度以及教育水平對碳排放的影響,預測江蘇省碳排放的峰值及到來時間并對比其在七省市中的水平。第五章在調(diào)研江蘇省各類能源消費的基礎上運用墨蘭指數(shù)驗證江蘇省各市能源結(jié)構(gòu)是否存在異質(zhì)性,并以空間計量模型分析江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素,為能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供相應路徑。第六章指出能源供需結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化需實現(xiàn)能源供需均衡,而能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的核心思想為“用煤盡量發(fā)電,用電盡量清潔”,故而利用系統(tǒng)動力學模型模擬江蘇能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化時的能源效率和碳排放的穩(wěn)定性,并設計開發(fā)非化石能源、控制煤炭消費、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和征收環(huán)境稅四個策略,發(fā)現(xiàn)同時使用發(fā)展非化石能源、控制煤炭消費、以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化以及征收環(huán)境稅策略組合可盡早實現(xiàn)提升能效和降低排放,即能源結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)同優(yōu)化更有利于實現(xiàn)江蘇省能源轉(zhuǎn)型。第七章為全文總結(jié),并指出文章的下一步研究方向�？偠灾�,全文從國際國內(nèi)的宏觀能源形勢入手,運用建模和調(diào)研兩類研究方法從理論和實證方面得出能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化對江蘇省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境保護的意義重大,并從供給和需求兩個方面提出江蘇省能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的策略。
[Abstract]:The situation of energy structure in Jiangsu Province is severe, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption is about 70%, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation is as high as 80%, which leads to great environmental pressure. However, optimization of energy structure is not easy. It is necessary to expound the strategic path and countermeasures from the angle of economics. This paper tries to cut into the economic and environmental benefits of energy structure optimization and puts forward the corresponding optimization strategies from both sides of supply and demand. This paper reveals the path and countermeasures of energy structure optimization in Jiangsu Province. There are seven chapters in this paper. The first chapter is mainly about the problem, the research status and the construction of the research framework, as the opening chapter. The first chapter starts from the international and domestic macro-energy situation, pointing out that the current domestic and international energy situation is grim, Jiangsu Province as an economically developed province is duty-bound for the national energy development. However, by comparing with Guangdong Province, it is found that the energy structure of Jiangsu Province is backward and needs to be optimized because of the mismatch with its own economic strength. The second chapter is the main content of the theoretical basis, in order to study the development of energy supply and demand in Jiangsu Province, the main theories used in this paper include the theory of sustainable development. The theory of system evolution and the corresponding research methods, and it is pointed out that the essence of energy structure optimization is diversification of energy structure for China and Jiangsu at present. Chapter 3 and 4th mainly discuss the economic and environmental benefits of energy structure optimization. The third chapter is to estimate whether the energy structure optimization can be promoted in Jiangsu province. Energy efficiency. The Shanng-Wiener diversity index and DEA were used to measure it, and it was found that the energy structure diversity and energy utilization efficiency of Jiangsu Province were in the middle and lower level of the whole country. The diversification of energy structure can improve the efficiency of energy use. The energy efficiency is improved by about 12%. Chapter 4th uses LMDI model to determine the energy structure influence in the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province, through the test of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. After the decoupling effect of the seven provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the impact of energy structure, industrial structure, technological innovation, openness and education level on carbon emissions was quantified by panel lag tools. Predict the peak and arrival time of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province and compare their levels in seven provinces and cities. Chapter 5th verifies whether there are differences in the energy structure of Jiangsu Province by using the ink orchid index on the basis of investigation of all kinds of energy consumption in Jiangsu Province. Quality. The spatial econometric model is used to analyze the influencing factors of energy structure in Jiangsu Province, which provides the corresponding path for the optimization of energy structure. Chapter 6th points out that energy supply and demand balance should be realized in the optimization of energy supply and demand structure. The core idea of energy structure optimization is "to use coal as much as possible to generate electricity and to use electricity as clean as possible", so the energy efficiency and carbon emission stability of Jiangsu energy structure optimization are simulated by system dynamics model. And the design and development of non-fossil energy, control of coal consumption, adjustment of industrial structure and collection of environmental tax four strategies, found that the simultaneous use of non-fossil energy to control coal consumption. Optimization of industrial structure and collection of environmental tax strategy combination can improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions as soon as possible, that is, energy structure and industrial structure coordination optimization is more conducive to the realization of energy transformation in Jiangsu Province. Chapter 7th is the summary of the full text. And pointed out the next research direction of the article. In a word, this paper starts with the domestic and international macro energy situation. Using two kinds of research methods, modeling and investigation, it is of great significance to optimize the energy structure for the economic development and environmental protection of Jiangsu Province from the theoretical and empirical aspects. The strategy of energy structure optimization in Jiangsu Province is put forward from two aspects of supply and demand.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.2

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