索馬里的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟主要以牲畜業(yè)為主,對種植業(yè)的依賴程度較小。畜牧業(yè)占GDP的40%左右,并提供了60%的就業(yè)機會和80%的外匯收入。畜牧業(yè)在索馬里經(jīng)濟中發(fā)揮著重要作用,它是最大的部門、最大的雇主和大多數(shù)家庭的主要收入來源。出口部門主要依賴牛、駱駝、山羊和綿羊等畜牧產(chǎn)品,這些產(chǎn)品的特點是容易受到數(shù)量和價格的波動影響。盡管這四種牲畜的出口是索馬里的主要經(jīng)濟來源,但尚未有學(xué)者對這四種牲畜的出口進行過相關(guān)研究。因此,本研究能為政策制定者、經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和其他對索馬里經(jīng)濟感興趣的社會經(jīng)濟團體提供有關(guān)索馬里出口狀況和影響因素的分析,這對于研究索馬里未來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有重要意義。本研究的目的是通過觀察牲畜的出口和經(jīng)濟增長之間的因果關(guān)系來評估過去二十五年內(nèi)牲畜（牛,駱駝,山羊和綿羊）的出口對索馬里經(jīng)濟增長的趨勢和影響。研究采用了拓展的新古典生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型,選取了1990年至2015年間糧食和農(nóng)業(yè)組織關(guān)于國家貿(mào)易（FAOSTAT）和WDI（世界發(fā)展指標）的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),并使用協(xié)整模型、誤差修正模型和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系模型進行了分析。研究結(jié)果表明,牛羊出口對經(jīng)濟增長具有積極而顯著的影響,而駱駝出口對經(jīng)濟增長具有正向影響,但統(tǒng)計... 

【文章來源】：江蘇大學(xué)江蘇省

【文章頁數(shù)】：97 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background of the Study
    1.2 Statement of Problem,Objective of the Study and Research Questions
        1.2.1 Statement of the Problem
        1.2.2 Research Objectives
        1.2.3 Research Questions
    1.3 The Scope,Limitations,Structure and Novelty of the Research
        1.3.1 Scope and Limitation of the Research
        1.3.2 Research Structure
        1.3.3 Research Novelty
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Overview of Exports and Economic Growth
    2.2 Livestock Economy and Livestock Production
    2.3 Empirical Review
        2.3.1 Early Studies Conduct Export and Economic Growth
        2.3.2 Recent Studies Conduct Agriculture and Livestock Exports on Economic Growth
    2.4 Shortcomings of Reviewed Previous Empirical Analyses
    2.5 Summary
CHAPTER3 THEORETICAL BASIS AND MACHANISM FRAMEWORK
    3.1 Theoretical Review on Economic Growth
        3.1.1 Classical Theory of Economic Growth
        3.1.2 The Keynesian Theory of Economic Growth
        3.1.3 Neoclassical Growth Theories
        3.1.4 Endogenous Growth Theories
    3.2 Mechanism Framework
    3.3 Summary
CHAPTER4 LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT IN SOMALIA
    4.1 Importance of Livestock Marketing in Somalia
    4.2 Problems and Challenges Facing Livestock Sector in Somalia
        4.2.1 Treatment of Livestock and Lifting of Ban
        4.2.2 Sanitary Standards of the Livestock and Avoiding Future Ban
    4.3 Capacity of Export and Beneficiaries of Livestock Trade in Somalia
    4.4 Current Situation of Livestock Exports in Somalia
    4.5 The Global Trend of Agriculture and the Livestock Sector
        4.5.1 Situation of the Livestock Sector in The Horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
        4.5.2 Current situation of Agriculture Sector in horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
    4.6 Summary
CHAPTER5 METHODOLOGY
    5.1 Study Area
    5.2 Nature and Source of Data
    5.3 Model Specification
    5.4 Description of the Variables and Their Anticipated Signs
    5.5 Methods of Data Analysis
        5.5.1 Stationary and Non-Stationary
        5.5.2 Co-Integration Test
        5.5.3 Error Correction Model（ECM）
    5.6 Summary
CHAPTER6 RESULTS OF THE ASSESMENTS AND EMPIRICAL DISCUSSIONS
    6.1 Trends of Livestock Exports in Somalia
        6.1.1 Trend in Camel Exports in Somalia
        6.1.2 Trend in Sheep Exports in Somalia
        6.1.3 Trend in Goat Exports in Somalia
        6.1.4 Trend in Cattle Exports in Somalia
    6.2 The Summary（Descriptive）Statistics
    6.3 Econometrics Analysis
        6.3.1 Unit Root Test and Order of Integration
        6.3.2 Tests for Co-Integration
    6.4 Results of Long Run Relationship
        6.4.1 The Impact of Cattle Exports on Economic Growth
        6.4.2 The Impact of Sheep Exports on Economic Growth
        6.4.3 The Impact of Goat Exports on Economic Growth
        6.4.4 The Impact of Camel Exports on Economic Growth
    6.5 Control Variables
        6.5.1 The Impact of Total Labor Force（TLF）on Economic Growth
        6.5.2 The Impact of Gross Domestic Fix Capital Formation（lnCA）on Economic Growth
        6.5.3 The Impact of Exchange Rate（lnER）on Economic Growth
    6.6 Model Appropriateness
        6.6.1 The Autocorrelation Test
        6.6.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test
    6.7 The Misspecification Test
    6.8 Results of the Error Correction Model
    6.9 Granger Causality Test Between Economic Growth and Livestock Exports
    6.10 summary
CHAPTER7 CONCULATION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
    7.1 Conclusion
    7.2 Recommendations
    7.3 Areas for Further Research
REFERENCES



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