【摘要】：服務(wù)貿(mào)易在全球貿(mào)易中的地位日益上升,在2015年服務(wù)貿(mào)易總額在全球貿(mào)易總額中占比達到22.2%,超過1/5。在這一背景之下,中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易也在以驚人的速度不斷增長,但在進口規(guī)模和出口規(guī)模保持高速增長的同時,也伴隨著服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差的日益擴大。隨著中間品貿(mào)易的普及,國際分工模式逐漸轉(zhuǎn)向產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)分工和產(chǎn)品內(nèi)分工,"世界制造"逐漸替代"國家制造"成為產(chǎn)品的新標簽,全球價值鏈逐漸成為全球貿(mào)易格局的新主導。不僅如此,伴隨中間產(chǎn)品多次跨境流通的是價值增值在每一次流通中的重復(fù)計算,帶來貿(mào)易規(guī)模虛高的現(xiàn)象。所以在貿(mào)易增加值核算法下重新核算中國服務(wù)出口和其國際競爭力水平,并在此基礎(chǔ)上確定中國服務(wù)出口國際競爭力的影響因素,對于明確中國服務(wù)出口的真實貿(mào)易利益、提升其在全球價值鏈分工中的國際競爭力水平具有十分重要的意義。本文基于貿(mào)易增加值核算法—KPWW法和2016年WIOD最新發(fā)布的世界投入產(chǎn)出表計算了中國2000-2014年30個服務(wù)行業(yè)的出口國內(nèi)增加值,并在行業(yè)層面和整體層面與傳統(tǒng)的服務(wù)出口額進行了縱向、橫向比較。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)中國傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計方法下的服務(wù)出口總額被高估的程度在45%以上,但高估率是在逐漸遞減的;分行業(yè)來看,建筑業(yè)(c27),航空運輸(c33)等行業(yè)的服務(wù)出口額被高估程度最大,其出口額中有一半以上的要素增加值是由其他國家所創(chuàng)造的。在出口國內(nèi)增加值的基礎(chǔ)上對衡量國際競爭力的國際市場占有率和顯性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)兩個指標做了一定的改進,并據(jù)此測算了中國30個服務(wù)行業(yè)的出口國際競爭力,通過與傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計方法下的結(jié)果進行對比發(fā)現(xiàn),整體上的國際市場占有率差異較小,但分行業(yè)來看不少行業(yè)的國際競爭力在傳統(tǒng)方法下被高估。通過貿(mào)易增加值視角下中國服務(wù)出口國際競爭力影響因素的實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),產(chǎn)值、人均固定資產(chǎn)投資占用額和制造業(yè)出口國內(nèi)增加值對勞動密集型行業(yè)和資本密集型行業(yè)的出口國內(nèi)增加值產(chǎn)生正向影響;外商直接投資、人民幣匯率、人均可支配收入則是對技術(shù)密集型和知識密集型行業(yè)的出口國際競爭力產(chǎn)生正向影響。最后提出政策建議,認為中國需要在提升國際分工地位的前提下,通過改善國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)要素結(jié)構(gòu)、合理利用外資等方式來保持優(yōu)勢行業(yè)的競爭優(yōu)勢和改變劣勢行業(yè)的競爭地位。
[Abstract]:Trade in services is rising in global trade, accounting for 22. 2% of total global trade in 2015, more than a fifth of the total. In this context, China's trade in services is growing at an alarming rate, but with the rapid growth of import and export, the trade deficit in services is also expanding day by day. With the popularization of intermediate goods trade, the international division of labor gradually shifts to intra-industry division and intra-product division. "made in the world" gradually replaces "national manufacturing" as a new label of products, and the global value chain gradually becomes the new dominant pattern of global trade. Not only that, but also the repeated calculation of value added in each circulation, which brings the phenomenon that the scale of trade is false. Therefore, the re-accounting of China's service exports and its level of international competitiveness under the trade value-added accounting method, and the determination of the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's service exports on the basis of this, will make clear the true trade interests of China's service exports. It is of great significance to improve its international competitiveness in the division of labor in global value chain. Based on the trade value added accounting method-KPWW method and the world input-output table published by WIOD in 2016, this paper calculates the export domestic value added of 30 service industries in China from 2000 to 2014. And in the industry level and the overall level with the traditional service exports vertical, horizontal comparison. The results show that the total export of services is overvalued by more than 45%, but the rate of overestimation is decreasing gradually under the traditional trade statistics method of China, and the services exports of construction industry (C27), air transport (C33) and other industries are the most overvalued by industries, such as construction industry (C27), air transport industry (C33) and so on. More than half of its exports are created by other countries. On the basis of domestic added value of exports, this paper improves the two indexes of international market share and explicit comparative advantage index to measure international competitiveness, and calculates the export international competitiveness of 30 service industries in China. By comparing with the results of the traditional trade statistics method, it is found that the overall international market share difference is small, but the international competitiveness of many industries is overestimated under the traditional method. Through the empirical analysis of the factors influencing the international competitiveness of China's service exports from the perspective of added value of trade, it is found that the output value, The per capita occupation of fixed assets investment and the domestic value added of manufacturing exports have a positive impact on the domestic value added of labor-intensive industries and capital-intensive industries; foreign direct investment, RMB exchange rate, Per capita disposable income has a positive impact on the export competitiveness of technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward, which suggest that China should maintain the competitive advantage and change the competitive position of the inferior industries by improving the structure of domestic factors of production and utilizing foreign capital rationally on the premise of enhancing the position of international division of labor.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.68

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