【摘要】：隨著電煤并軌制度的實(shí)施,我國進(jìn)入到了電煤交易市場(chǎng)化的新時(shí)代,煤炭價(jià)格的波動(dòng)使火電企業(yè)在成本控制方面任務(wù)更加艱巨,對(duì)其電煤庫存管理策略也提出了新的要求�；痣娖髽I(yè)的電煤庫存雖然可以保證其穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)的需求,但過多的庫存量會(huì)占用企業(yè)流動(dòng)資金,增加公司的經(jīng)營成本。目前,火電企業(yè)為了規(guī)避電煤供應(yīng)不足及價(jià)格波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),往往會(huì)在冬夏兩季用煤高峰時(shí)期提前存儲(chǔ)動(dòng)力煤,這樣的策略不僅會(huì)增加額外的存儲(chǔ)成本同時(shí)電煤質(zhì)量也得不到較好的保障。2013年動(dòng)力煤期貨在鄭州商品交易所正式掛牌上市,帶給了火電企業(yè)一種新的電煤獲取渠道,火電企業(yè)可以利用動(dòng)力煤期貨的實(shí)物交割功能進(jìn)行穩(wěn)定的動(dòng)力煤供應(yīng)。動(dòng)力煤期貨對(duì)于保證火電企業(yè)穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)及控制企業(yè)成本方面具有很大意義,目前多數(shù)有關(guān)企業(yè)購買動(dòng)力煤期貨的研究均為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)沖及套期保值方面,將動(dòng)力煤期貨與企業(yè)庫存相結(jié)合的研究較少,開展此項(xiàng)研究具有重要的理論和實(shí)踐意義。本文研究旨在將動(dòng)力煤現(xiàn)貨和期貨相結(jié)合,為火電企業(yè)制定動(dòng)力煤期現(xiàn)結(jié)合庫存策略提供有益的參考。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下:1、利用文獻(xiàn)研究法對(duì)動(dòng)力煤期貨和電煤庫存的國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了解,同時(shí)運(yùn)用實(shí)地調(diào)研法對(duì)火電企業(yè)在用煤高峰時(shí)期的庫存策略進(jìn)行了解和資料收集。2、將火電企業(yè)傳統(tǒng)庫存策略和動(dòng)力煤期貨實(shí)物交割策略相結(jié)合,用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法建立模型并繪制了該模型的因果關(guān)系及存量關(guān)系圖,同時(shí)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了單位檢驗(yàn)和極限情況檢驗(yàn),說明了模型的真實(shí)性和可行性。在實(shí)施期現(xiàn)結(jié)合電煤庫存模式的前提下設(shè)置不同的仿真策略,仿真策略包括:不考慮期貨的提前存煤策略、簡要期現(xiàn)結(jié)合策略及多種期貨購買情形的策略。3、以某火電企業(yè)為例根據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)的仿真策略進(jìn)行仿真模擬,并根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果對(duì)火電企業(yè)實(shí)施期現(xiàn)結(jié)合業(yè)務(wù)提出建議。在整個(gè)研究過程中,本文在火電企業(yè)現(xiàn)有庫存策略上建立了動(dòng)力煤期貨和現(xiàn)貨相結(jié)合的庫存管理策略;驗(yàn)證了不同的期貨購買策略對(duì)企業(yè)庫存量和成本帶來的影響。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the system of coal mergence, China has entered a new era of coal trading marketization. The fluctuation of coal price makes the cost control task of thermal power enterprises more arduous, and puts forward new requirements to its coal inventory management strategy. Although the thermal coal inventory of thermal power enterprises can ensure its stable production demand, but excessive inventory will occupy the enterprise liquidity, increase the operating costs of the company. At present, in order to avoid the risk of insufficient supply of thermal coal and the risk of price fluctuations, thermal power enterprises often store thermal coal ahead of schedule during peak periods of coal use in winter and summer. Such a strategy would not only increase additional storage costs but also provide better protection for the quality of thermal coal. In 2013, thermal coal futures were officially listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, giving thermal power enterprises a new way to obtain thermal coal. Thermal power enterprises can make use of the physical delivery function of thermal coal futures for stable power coal supply. Thermal coal futures are of great significance in ensuring stable production and controlling the cost of thermal power enterprises. At present, most of the research on the purchase of thermal coal futures by enterprises is on risk hedging and hedging. There are few researches on the combination of thermal coal futures and enterprise inventory, so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out this research. The purpose of this paper is to combine the spot and futures of thermal coal to provide a useful reference for thermal power enterprises to formulate the current combined inventory strategy of thermal power plants. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1. Using literature research method to understand the current domestic and international situation of thermal coal futures and thermal coal stocks. At the same time, the method of field investigation is used to understand and collect information on the stock strategy of thermal power enterprises during the peak period of coal use, which combines the traditional inventory strategy of thermal power enterprises with the physical delivery strategy of thermal coal futures. The model is established by the method of system dynamics, and the causality and stock relation diagram of the model is drawn. At the same time, the unit test and limit test are carried out to illustrate the authenticity and feasibility of the model. Different simulation strategies are set up under the premise of combining the coal inventory mode in the implementation period. The simulation strategy includes: not considering the futures in advance coal storage strategy, Taking a thermal power enterprise as an example, the paper simulates and simulates the designed simulation strategy, and puts forward some suggestions on the present combined business in the implementation period of the thermal power enterprise according to the simulation results. In the whole research process, this paper establishes an inventory management strategy combining thermal coal futures and spot on the existing inventory strategy of thermal power enterprises, and verifies the impact of different futures purchase strategies on the inventory and cost of enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F764.1;F724.5;F426.61

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