發(fā)布時間：2018-06-06 08:42

  本文選題：服務貿易 + 貨物貿易�。� 參考：《寧波大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：服務貿易與貨物貿易是國際貿易的兩個主要組成要素,發(fā)展態(tài)勢呈現(xiàn)出較強相關性:貨物貿易先于服務貿易,其發(fā)展引致了服務需求和提高了服務供給能力,而服務貿易的產生和發(fā)展在提供支撐、降低成本、提升競爭力等方面促進了貨物貿易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。把服務貿易與貨物貿易結合起來研究和兩者在總量上、結構上的互相作用日益成為學者們探討的熱點。研究兩者互相促進、互動發(fā)展的原因、機制以及路徑等問題亟待我們研究和解決。中國服務貿易與貨物貿易在規(guī)模和增速上都形成了跨越式發(fā)展,但兩者發(fā)展不平衡現(xiàn)象不容忽視,常年順差的貨物貿易和常年逆差的服務貿易之反差也值得我們深思。本文選取“服務貿易與貨物貿易互動發(fā)展”作為研究主題。結合國際貿易、經濟學理論和現(xiàn)代計量工具,主要從理論、實踐、實證三視角展開分析。首先,本文從宏觀層面初步探討了服務貿易與貨物貿易之間的互動發(fā)展問題,對國內外理論成果進行系統(tǒng)梳理和總結,選取微笑曲線理論、生產區(qū)段和服務鏈理論、產品生命周期理論作為支撐,并深入闡述兩者互動發(fā)展的內在機制。其次,從微觀層面比較分析全球與中國的服務貿易和貨物貿易發(fā)展實踐,總結全球發(fā)展規(guī)律和互動趨勢,并通過對比總結出中國服務貿易與貨物貿易互動發(fā)展差距。再次,用協(xié)整分析、VEC和VAR等計量模型實證檢驗了服務貿易與貨物貿易互動發(fā)展關系,先將全球總體、美國(發(fā)達國家代表)、中國(發(fā)展中國家代表)的貿易總量進行實證對比分析,結果顯示美國、全球的服務貿易與貨物貿易之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的互動發(fā)展關系,而中國存在的互動發(fā)展關系不顯著;為深入研究中國落后之原因,本文再從中國貨物貿易商品結構和服務貿易部門結構兩方面進行實證分析,結果顯示中國服務貿易對燃料和礦產品、鋼鐵制品、化學品、機械和運輸設備四類貨物貿易發(fā)展的促進作用較為顯著,中國貨物貿易對服務貿易中代表高附加值的其它商業(yè)服務促進效應逐漸增強。最后,針對前文的理論、實踐、實證分析結果,在優(yōu)化貿易結構、重視發(fā)展服務貿易、引入競爭機制、完善立法政策等方面提出對策建議。
[Abstract]:Trade in services and trade in goods are two main elements of international trade, and the development trend shows a strong correlation: trade in goods precedes trade in services, its development leads to demand for services and improves the capacity of service supply. The emergence and development of trade in services promote the sustainable development of trade in goods in the aspects of providing support, reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness. The research on the combination of trade in services and trade in goods and the interaction between them in total amount has become a hot topic for scholars. It is urgent for us to study and solve the problems of mutual promotion, mutual development, mechanism and path between the two. China's trade in services and goods has developed by leaps and bounds on both scale and growth rate, but the imbalance between them can not be ignored, and the contrast between the trade in goods in surplus and the trade in services in deficit all the year round is worth our deep thinking. This paper chooses the interactive development of trade in services and goods as the research topic. Combined with international trade, economic theory and modern econometric tools, this paper mainly analyzes from three perspectives: theory, practice and demonstration. First of all, this paper discusses the interactive development between trade in services and goods at the macro level, systematically combs and summarizes the theoretical achievements at home and abroad, selects the theory of smile curve, the production section and the theory of service chain. Product life-cycle theory as the support, and in-depth elaboration of the internal mechanism of the interaction between the two. Secondly, it compares and analyzes the development practice of global trade in services and goods trade with China at the micro level, sums up the law of global development and the trend of interaction, and sums up the gap between China's trade in services and trade in goods through comparison. Thirdly, the paper empirically tests the relationship between trade in services and trade in goods by using the econometric models such as cointegration analysis, such as VEC and VAR. A comparative analysis of the total volume of trade between the United States (a representative of the developed countries) and China (a representative of a developing country) shows that the United States has a long-term, stable and interactive relationship between trade in services and trade in goods. In order to study the causes of China's backwardness, this paper makes an empirical analysis from the commodity structure of China's goods trade and the structure of service trade sector. The results show that China's trade in services contributes significantly to the development of trade in fuel and mineral products, iron and steel products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment. The promotion effect of China's goods trade on other commercial services which represent high added value in service trade is gradually strengthened. Finally, in view of the above theory, practice, empirical analysis results, in the optimization of the structure of trade, attach importance to the development of trade in services, the introduction of competition mechanism, improve the legislative policy and other aspects of countermeasures and suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.68;F752.6

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本文編號：1985933