本文選題：中日貿(mào)易 + 隱含能　； 參考：《東華大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自國家實施改革開放以后,中國的經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易發(fā)展一直保持高速增長的模式。中國GDP水平的高速增長離不開龐大的能源供給,我國目前處在工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化快速布局時期的同時也面臨著能源消耗的龐大缺口。按照《BP世界能源統(tǒng)計》資料顯示,2016年中國一次性能源的消費總規(guī)模為43.6億噸標準煤,占全球總規(guī)模的23%,連續(xù)5年成為世界上能量消費最高的國家。巨大的能源資源不單造成能源供需的緊張,高耗能、高排放還會引起一系列的環(huán)境矛盾,直接導致一部分國家鼓吹“中國能源威脅論”等說法,讓中國承擔能源和環(huán)保問題的國際輿論。本文通過提出“隱含能”這個概念,揭示一國能源使用和貿(mào)易之間的聯(lián)系。通過計算中日雙邊貿(mào)易中的隱含能規(guī)模以及隱含能規(guī)模變動的驅(qū)動因素分析,能夠更加直觀、清楚的揭示出中國能源使用及對外貿(mào)易的本質(zhì),為中國“十三五”計劃中的節(jié)能降排提供政策建議。本文在此背景下,根據(jù)WIOD世界投入產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)庫,編制2002年、2007年和2014年中日雙邊投入產(chǎn)出表,結(jié)合中日各部門的能源消耗數(shù)據(jù),并將部門整合為22個,分別測算了中日22個部門的完全能耗強度和雙邊貿(mào)易隱含能總量。實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):中國和日本各部門能源消耗強度皆表現(xiàn)出不同程度的減少趨勢,且中國的能耗強度相較與日本降幅巨大,這表明中日兩國的能源使用效率均有一定程度的上升。中日雙邊貿(mào)易隱含能總量呈現(xiàn)“先升高,后降低”的趨勢。在中日貿(mào)易中,中國一直處在能源凈出口國的地位。接著利用SDA結(jié)構(gòu)分解模型,將中日雙邊貿(mào)易隱含能規(guī)模變動的驅(qū)動因素分成內(nèi)部技術效應、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應和貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應。實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):貿(mào)易規(guī)模的變動對貿(mào)易隱含能起到了最重要的拉動作用,相比之下,貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)因素對隱含能變化值的貢獻率非常小。內(nèi)部技術效應對貿(mào)易隱含能的規(guī)模有較強的抑制作用,能源使用效率的上升對貿(mào)易隱含能規(guī)模產(chǎn)生一定的抑制作用。最終本文根據(jù)中日貿(mào)易隱含能的測算結(jié)果以及驅(qū)動因素分析結(jié)果提供了合理化的政策建議,給出符合中國目前經(jīng)濟發(fā)展趨勢的政策意見。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of reform and opening up, China's economic and trade development has maintained a high-speed growth model. The rapid growth of China's GDP level can not be separated from the huge energy supply. At present, China is in the period of industrialization and urbanization, and is also facing the huge gap of energy consumption at the same time. According to "BP World Energy Statistics", China's total consumption of one-off energy in 2016 is 4.36 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 23% of the world's total scale, becoming the world's highest energy consumption for five consecutive years. Huge energy resources not only cause tension between energy supply and demand, high energy consumption, and high emissions will also cause a series of environmental contradictions, leading directly to some countries advocating the "China Energy threat Theory" and other statements. Let China bear the energy and environmental issues of international public opinion. In this paper, the concept of "implied energy" is proposed to reveal the relationship between a country's energy use and trade. Through the analysis of the driving factors of the change of implied energy scale and implied energy scale in bilateral trade between China and Japan, the essence of China's energy use and foreign trade can be revealed more intuitively and clearly. To provide policy advice for energy saving and reduction of schedule in China's 13th five-year Plan. In this context, according to the WIOD world input-output database, this paper compiled the bilateral input-output tables of China and Japan in 2002, 2007 and 2014, combined with the energy consumption data of various sectors in China and Japan, and integrated them into 22 sectors. The total energy consumption intensity of 22 sectors and the total implied energy of bilateral trade are calculated. The empirical study shows that the energy consumption intensity of China and Japan shows a decreasing trend to varying degrees, and the energy consumption intensity of China is much lower than that of Japan, which indicates that the energy use efficiency of China and Japan has increased to a certain extent. Bilateral trade between China and Japan shows a trend of "increase first, then decrease". China has been a net exporter of energy in Sino-Japanese trade. Then, by using the SDA structure decomposition model, the drivers of the potential scale change of bilateral trade between China and Japan are divided into the internal technical effect, the trade structure effect and the trade scale effect. The empirical study finds that the change of trade scale plays the most important role in stimulating the implied value of trade, in contrast, the contribution rate of trade structure factor to the change value of implied energy is very small. Internal technological effect has a strong inhibition on the scale of trade implied energy, and the increase of energy use efficiency has a certain inhibitory effect on the scale of trade implied energy. Finally, based on the calculated results of the implied energy of Sino-Japanese trade and the results of the analysis of the driving factors, this paper provides some rational policy suggestions, and gives some policy suggestions which are in line with the current economic development trend of China.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.7;F753.13

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